4th and 1

[Patler]

Never is the play called for ONE player to get the ball. A play was called, and based on the defense, Jennings was maybe the first option. MM didn't call the play as you are portraying it, Flynn made a read and went with it. I have no problem with the call or the read, simply the execution.

Who ever said a play is called for one player to get the ball? But there are expectations and a progression involved in every play. MM even admitted that he called the play he did expecting to get the one on one match-up for Jennings. It was the throw he was hoping for. It was why he called what he did. It played out exactly the way he wanted it to. He wanted an all or nothing shot with Flynn throwing to Jennings in the endzone. He said as much.

[sharpe1027]

After calming down from the loss, I have no problem with the play call. While there was likely a higher percentage chance of getting the 1st down than completing the 30 yard throw, I think the 30 yard throw was the best chance of getting a TD. They haven't had a good short yard play all year. They scored 3 points all game. Flynn already threw a INT in the endzone when there was zero pressure in terms of down, distance and time. I think it a far more likely outcome is that even after they might get the first down, they end up with a sack that effectively ruins their chances.

There is a natural tendency to want the safer option in the short term, even if it is the lower percentage overall. IMO, I would take exactly what Pater said and flip it on its head (No disrespect meant Patler): I liken going for the short yardage/first down to running three conservative plays with 2 minutes remaining, and settling for a 52 yard FG attempt to win against MN in 2008. Both were low percentage calls that played it safe in the short term for a lower overall percent chance.

[sheepshead]

Yup, and open 3's are routinely missed, too; just like 50 yard field goals.
If your best opportunity to pick up 1 yard is to have your QB throw it 40 yards in the air, there is something wrong with your game plan.

I was thinking about the same analogy. Pool shot too--lots of green in between. The percentages go down with every yard. More can go wrong.

[Patler]

Except that by getting a first down you then give yourself four more opportunities (absent a turnover) to complete something to get you a TD. I would rather have more opportunities than putting it all on a single play when I don't have to. They had time, they had timeouts. They used neither the time nor the timeouts available to them, instead risking the entire outcome on that one single play.

The Packers pride themselves on their 4 or 5 receivers. You can't double them all. If Jennings was doubled, someone else would not be. They are all capable of taking it the distance. It didn't have to come down to a single deep play to Jennings yet.

[th87]

Haha, bobblehead, I agree with most of your points. Regarding football.

I just don't think the "safe" pass would've been safe at all, given the circumstances. An open 3 is better than taking it to the hole against Dwight Howard. And how about an obstructed pool shot versus a longer open one?

And for the record, I despised settling for the 52 yard FG. But this is an entirely different circumstance. A 3 yard pass was not a given in this case.

[3irty1]

More I think about it the more I don't mind the call. You have to also consider that even if you convert 4th and 1, you must still go 30 yards and score a touchdown. Going for the killshot against a favorable defense has the potential to win the game outright. Its unlikely that on one of the remaining plays of the game we'd see a less contested matchup than the one on one Jennings had.

That's why I don't hate it. What I love about it is the message it sends to future defensive coordinators. 4th and 1, 50 seconds left, division game with playoff importance, backup QB--There isn't a situation you can come up with where McCarthy won't try to land a haymaker to the face so you better keep your gloves up. My guess is that next time the slant, quick out, or outside run is a little easier to complete. Worth it? Definitely not but at least its something.

[3irty1]

Except that by getting a first down you then give yourself four more opportunities (absent a turnover) to complete something to get you a TD. I would rather have more opportunities than putting it all on a single play when I don't have to. They had time, they had timeouts. They used neither the time nor the timeouts available to them, instead risking the entire outcome on that one single play.

The Packers pride themselves on their 4 or 5 receivers. You can't double them all. If Jennings was doubled, someone else would not be. They are all capable of taking it the distance. It didn't have to come down to a single deep play to Jennings yet.

Our best short yardage formation is probably the 5 wide set. Did anyone recall even seeing that formation with Flynn? I wonder McCarthy is comfortable with him in that situation.

[sharpe1027]

A higher # of opportunities does not guarantee a higher rate of success. Structuring the argument as one play vs. many plays is a misleading statement and doesn't address the factors that weigh against going for the short yardage. Going for a short pass "risked" not getting the short yardage (I'd argue almost as high a risk as the long pass play). Further, it risked getting the short yardage and then not making a first down. It risked getting the short yardage and then having a turnover. It risked getting the short yardage and running out of time. They were both risks. Given the success rate of the offense on the day, the time remaining, the yardage necessary and other factors, I'm far from convinced that trying to get short yardage was a better risk.

[denverYooper]

I didn't mind the call, really. For one, when the teams lined up it was clear that Jennings had one on one coverage - no safety was in the area. Secondly, it was also clear to me that this offense was continually misfiring - especially the offensive line. Thus, even if the majority of posters here got that short, safe pass for a first down, there was no real indication that the Pack could put the ball in the end zone, especially as the Packers got near the goal line.The Lions' base defense was working so well they didn't need to blitz to get constant pressure on the QB. You should've seen what it looked like when Flynn had the Packers down on the Lions' nine yard line earlier, when he threw that deadly interception. Because the Packers were on the nine, the Lions were able to put defenders all over the damn end zone. There was no where for Flynn to throw.

So when it was 4th and 1 later, I liked the call. It was the best coverage the Pack was going to get, and while it was a difficult throw, it was, to me, no more difficult than if the Pack had marched down the field and gotten to the ten yard line or something, because then Flynn would've had to thread a throw between defenders while the Lions front mauled the Pack's offensive line.

And finally, I got to watch Flynn warm up before the game, and he was whistling 40 yard throws effortlessly. He has a better arm than I thought he did.

Yeah, that didn't work out so well the first time they tried to throw it in from thereabouts.

[Sparkey]

MM is fine and I did not see anything wrong with the play call. He was open. The game was lost because the players did not perform.

IMO, the Packers need to can Campen and Philbein and scrap the whole o-line blocking scheme they utilize. How many years has it been where they would get better after they have played in the scheme for a while ? Its not happening and I blame the blocking scheme more than the players.

[Freak Out]

IMO, the Packers need to can Campen and Philbein and scrap the whole o-line blocking scheme they utilize. How many years has it been where they would get better after they have played in the scheme for a while ? Its not happening and I blame the blocking scheme more than the players.

There needs to be a change....and some new blood on the line. There should be some pretty good (?) FA OL available for TT to woo and I think that needs to happen this year. How many years are they going to make the franchise run for his fucking life back there?