Great calls, poor execution

[Brandon494]

Go on, Flynn is paid to make those throws, isn't he? It was only a 31 yard throw. He should never miss that indoors in good conditions.

At least....that is what a few had to say a couple days ago when discussing Crosby's missed 52 yard field goal against the Vikings in 2008. I said it was MM's fault, and dumb to run out the clock with just 3 plays in two minutes and settle for a 52 yard field goal attempt. Many of you agreed with me, but some said Crosby is a pro, in doors, and shouldn't have missed, even though all kickers collectively hit 50 yarders at only slightly more than 50%.

If there was no excuse for Crosby missing from 52, there is no excuse for Flynn missing a 31 yard toss.

?

[Cheesehead Craig]

Nope. He had the ball low and literally right before he fumbled, I yelled "don't fumble you dumbass!". It looked inevitable. Did you notice the difference between that play and all his second half catches when getting tackled? He obviously got an earful for being lazy with the ball.

I'm pretty sure Patler doesn't actually think this. You need to play percentages and MM constantly decides to gamble. If he went to the casino he'd play roulette or blackjack where the house has odds to win because it's exciting and doesn't take long.

Also worth noting that a quick score there just means we have to kickoff and give up a long return before a bomb to megatron to win it. MM doesn't think at all about the big picture. He's probably a shitty chess player too.

(I keep looking for my 'mm doesn't have it' thread from a couple years back that I always bump.... can't find it)

I'll have to double check the play from the DVR to see if my initial thought holds water.

[Noodle]

On the Crosby kick, Patler, I will agree with you. Expecting guys to hit 50+ yard field goals is absurd. Hope, sure, happy if it happens, yup, but not bumming if it misses because it's a helluva long kick.

Just as it is absurd to put your entire season on the line expceting your backup QB to nail a 31-yard corner route on 4th down. Maybe on 3rd, but not on 4th.

[Patler]

On the Crosby kick, Patler, I will agree with you. Expecting guys to hit 50+ yard field goals is absurd. Hope, sure, happy if it happens, yup, but not bumming if it misses because it's a helluva long kick.

Just as it is absurd to put your entire season on the line expceting your backup QB to nail a 31-yard corner route on 4th down. Maybe on 3rd, but not on 4th.

Yup, I agree. When you need just a few yards, and you have time, tossing up a low percentage throw when the game is on the line defies logic, in my mind. That very well could be a season determining play.

I like a gambler as my play caller - but that was a bit too much of a long shot for the situation, in my mind.

[Joemailman]

From MM's PC:

We had a chance for the big play on the fourth-and-2 and I probably should not have put him in that position. It was the defense we thought we were going to get there and the matchup and we just didn't execute it."

Was that a called play: "Absolutely."

[Patler]

From MM's PC:

We had a chance for the big play on the fourth-and-2 and I probably should not have put him in that position. It was the defense we thought we were going to get there and the matchup and we just didn't execute it."

Was that a called play: "Absolutely."

MM has shown time and time again that he is willing to go for the low percentage long shot, even in critical situations. It has cost him games on several occasions.

BTW - those low percentage long shots aren't always long throws. On several occasions he has almost bullheadedly insisted on running the ball instead of relying on what works well.

In some ways, MM seems to lack confidence in bread and butter plays that they run well. He tries to outsmart rather than outplay the other team. Good teams go to what they do best when they needed it the most.

[Noodle]

Cripes, I don't want to seem like Patler's Boswell, but there is a lot of truth in this statement. Great teams do what they want and don't care if you know it's coming. Zigs will confirm in the 'Skins glory years, they'd run Counter Trey all the way down the field and just kick arse.

This is related to the other post about MM getting his yearly epiphany that an outsized play-book is not the ticket to success.

Do a few things really well. Do them so well that even when you are dog tired in the fourth quarter, you have supreme confidence in your ability to do it right.

And then fire the OL coach.

[LEWCWA]

I think you get the first down first; I don't have unlimited faith in my backup QB to make that throw on 4th down. Maybe you give it a wing on 2nd and one but not 4th. Frankly on 3rd and 4th I'd have preferred high % passing plays to just get the first. Screen pass......etc. They had plenty of time. I just don't have that much faith on my backup QB who lacks practice time with the #1's

Thats the whole idea, on second down they weren't all in trying to stop the short pass. fourth down they were all in. It was a great call and Jennings was wide open. I'll take that chance every time.

[Pugger]

Quarless fumbled early when they were getting into a little rhythm and killed a good-looking drive

Jennings flubbed a sure TD and turned it into a TO.

Flynn threw a pick to Levy in the endzone & wiped points off of the board.

There is the ballgame in a nutshell and why we lost - not playcalling. If we score on all of those opportunities we win with our D giving up just 7 points.

[mmmdk]

Before the Queerless fumble I screamed "GO DOWN IDIOT!" and sure enough the fucking moron fumbled. Inexcusable and just another shitty close game where the Packers lose it.

It's true! I heard it all across the grand herring pond

[pbmax]

MM has shown time and time again that he is willing to go for the low percentage long shot, even in critical situations. It has cost him games on several occasions.

BTW - those low percentage long shots aren't always long throws. On several occasions he has almost bullheadedly insisted on running the ball instead of relying on what works well.

In some ways, MM seems to lack confidence in bread and butter plays that they run well. He tries to outsmart rather than outplay the other team. Good teams go to what they do best when they needed it the most.

I agree with this assessment of M3. And I don't think he has a complete idea of what he can and cannot do without Grant or Finley.

But what bread and butter plays do they have for 4th and short this year? I would love to hear what has been working.

[mmmdk]

I agree with this assessment of M3. And I don't think he has a complete idea of what he can and cannot do without Grant or Finley.

But what bread and butter plays do they have for 4th and short this year? I would love to hear what has been working.

hmm...one thing that might work would be McCarthy saying: "I'm done!".

[Patler]

I agree with this assessment of M3. And I don't think he has a complete idea of what he can and cannot do without Grant or Finley.

But what bread and butter plays do they have for 4th and short this year? I would love to hear what has been working.

That is the point I raised in another thread. They don't seem to have any, but I'm not sure that that isn't by design. MM seems to cherish variety over execution (no matter what he says). He has no bread and butter plays generally, regardless of the down and distance. I don't think he wants to have plays that he pounds and pounds on until the other team stops them.

Grant has been gone the entire season, Finley for a half-season worth of games. MM hasn't yet figured out what the identity of the team is without them. Every week it seems to be something different.

[mmmdk]

McCarthy is a tinkerer

[sharpe1027]

Yup, I agree. When you need just a few yards, and you have time, tossing up a low percentage throw when the game is on the line defies logic, in my mind. That very well could be a season determining play.

I like a gambler as my play caller - but that was a bit too much of a long shot for the situation, in my mind.

To be fair, the best way to assess the percentages would be to compare the percentage of the Packers getting a TD in both situations, not just whether or not they convert the 4th down. What's their percentage chance of converting a 4th and 1? 50%? Next, what is there percentage chance of scoring a TD with a first down on the 30 yard line with under 2 minutes and 2 timeouts , your back QB and having only scored 3 points the entire game? A generous 50%? IDK about the accuracy of those percentages, but they would comes out to only 25% chance. The odds of completing a 30 yard pass with the Jennings match-up? I'd say it is probably close to 25%.