McCarthy's Playcalling

[th87]

Of course not. But the play of the defense is part of the calculation. McCarthy had to be banking on the ability of his defense to stop Philly in case he didn't get the first down. That allows him to also make sure that he's run the clock and run them out of TOs, including the 2 minute warning (forcing them to pass).

Indeed, he was banking on the defense to make a stop, but they hadn't really made one in the entire second half. It was enforced errors by the Eagles that largely did the stopping. Each of the drives ended considerably inside Packers territory.

[denverYooper]

You could argue they made their own luck/breaks. Look, they stopped Philly's offense all day long. The same offense that scored 21 point in 7 minutes, and gave defenses fits all year long - give 'em some credit.

This. The Eagles had to fight like hell for every point they got. Green Bay's defense is not getting lucky, it's choking opponents out until they are forced into a mistake. That last INT was set up by their play all game.

I thought they were getting "lucky" early in the year but as the season has gone on they've shown to be consistent and tough, making opponents work very hard to put points up. McCarthy has shown that he trusts them to win games and I can't fault him for that because they've been the most reliable unit on the team.

[mraynrand]

Indeed, he was banking on the defense to make a stop(1), but they hadn't really made one in the entire second half(2). (3)It was enforced errors by the Eagles that largely did the stopping. Each of the drives ended considerably inside Packers territory.

(1) He wasn't banking on it, it was part of his calculation - that the defense could likely keep Philly out of the endzone if the Packers couldn't hang onto the ball; the defense would have even a better chance of stopping Philly if Philly had less time and was forced to pass only.
(2) Sure they did.
(3)That depends on your POV - did the Eagles make unforced errors, or did the Packers defense force the errors?

[th87]

Depends on why you believe he made a poor throw, doesn't it?

I'm sure the time did play some factor on the decision to throw. However, I don't think it was a huge one. The Eagles had plenty of time, and had just completed passes of 28 and 11 yards. They were moving pretty well, and on the INT, there were others open.

I definitely don't think it factored in the throw itself though. It was just a poor throw.

[mraynrand]

I'm sure the time did play some factor on the decision to throw. However, I don't think it was a huge one. The Eagles had plenty of time, and had just completed passes of 28 and 11 yards. They were moving pretty well, and on the INT, there were others open.

I definitely don't think it factored in the throw itself though. It was just a poor throw.

OK, we disagree, and we know where we disagree.

[th87]

(1) He wasn't banking on it, it was part of his calculation - that the defense could likely keep Philly out of the endzone if the Packers couldn't hang onto the ball; the defense would have even a better chance of stopping Philly if Philly had less time and was forced to pass only.
(2) Sure they did.
(3)That depends on your POV - did the Eagles make unforced errors, or did the Packers defense force the errors?

The pass at the 25 hit Avant in the hands. That's unforced, I'd say.

The missed FG was also. Credit the defense for forcing them into a FG, but they had gotten to our 16.

The INT was a bad pass and a great play, so the edge goes to the defense here. But even this came deep in our territory.

If we were completely shutting them down, then fine. Play it safe. But they were moving the ball pretty effectively in the second half.

[HarveyWallbangers]

On a day like last Sunday, FGs were iffy propositions. Credit the defense even more for forcing FGs--because there was a good chance FGs longer than 30 yards were going to be missed.

[RashanGary]

Windy day, tough to pass.
Top 5 defense
Punter who is on a roll
RB who's been running hard
Time running out
Other team needs a TD. FG is nothing
Vick's running is partially neutralized because clock runs.


There are a lot of solid reasons to lean toward running the clock. It's the decision I would have made.


However, it did cross my mind that a PA pass would be pretty sweet on 1st down. 2nd down I was fully committed to running.

[gbgary]

You could argue they made their own luck/breaks. Look, they stopped Philly's offense all day long. The same offense that scored 21 point in 7 minutes, and gave defenses fits all year long - give 'em some credit.

i did! http://packerrats.com/showthread.php...uddos-go-to......

[mraynrand]

The pass at the 25 hit Avant in the hands. That's unforced, I'd say.

The missed FG was also. Credit the defense for forcing them into a FG, but they had gotten to our 16.

The INT was a bad pass and a great play, so the edge goes to the defense here. But even this came deep in our territory.

If we were completely shutting them down, then fine. Play it safe. But they were moving the ball pretty effectively in the second half.

I disagree that the Eagles largely stopped themselves. As to 'completely shutting them down' - well, if that were true, then you'd never need to pass again. The defense was effective so it was part of McCarthy's calculation. That's my view. I see where you differ. I think we're done here.

[get louder at lambeau]

As far as our defense stopping the Eagles or the Eagles stopping themselves, it is immaterial. Six of one, a half dozen of the other.

[th87]

I disagree that the Eagles largely stopped themselves. As to 'completely shutting them down' - well, if that were true, then you'd never need to pass again. The defense was effective so it was part of McCarthy's calculation. That's my view. I see where you differ. I think we're done here.

Sounds good!

[vince]

As far as our defense stopping the Eagles or the Eagles stopping themselves, it is immaterial. Six of one, a half dozen of the other.

That's a really good point. A big part of the Bears' defensive philosophy is to make the opposing offense stop themselves. They've been a pretty damn good defense when they can avoid big plays and just keep offenses in front of them.

[th87]

As far as our defense stopping the Eagles or the Eagles stopping themselves, it is immaterial. Six of one, a half dozen of the other.

Disagree. Is a person who guessed correctly on a multiple choice question the same as someone who knew the right answer?

Luck matters. And we got some major breaks in the second half, as I'd mentioned. To count on more to derail their drives wasn't, IMO, statistically sustainable.

[vince]

Disagree. Is a person who guessed correctly on a multiple choice question the same as someone who knew the right answer?

Luck matters. And we got some major breaks in the second half, as I'd mentioned. To count on more to derail their drives wasn't, IMO, statistically sustainable.

Luck has nothing to do with it nor does guessing on a test. Surely you don't think Vick flipped a coin in his head to decide whether to throw the ball to the end zone.