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Football Outsiders has this to say about the matchup:
Bill Barnwell, 14 Jan, 2011
They also point out:
The narrative for the Falcons has changed. Until the midpoint of the season, the Falcons were known for running the ball and stopping the run. But both areas have slipped significantly in the second half. The pass D has not helped and the pass O has improved, but not enough to make up for the loss in the running game.
Unfortunately, the Packers played the Falcons during this dry spell. Given Capers use of nickel personnel, it is understandable why the Falcons had a temporary resurgence of it s run game. The troubling news is that Zombo is not available for this game. So that would mean Francois in for Walden to beef up the run D in nickel, or go base with Raji, Pickett and Green/Jenkins. But base would put a great deal of stress on Woodson (who would go back to playing wide) and the ILBs, who would cover Gonzalez.
On offense, the Packers might be luckier this time around. Starks is more of a threat for positive yards than Jackson in most situations. This area almost cannot help but improve over the last game. The combo of Starks and Q Johnson give the Packers the ability to use play action and have one reasonable pass blocker (Johnson) and two legitimate targets out in the routes. Add in the fact that the Packers are healthy enough to go four and five wide again. That, and Rodgers should not have to sneak for a short yardage TD. The only area of concern would be big blitzes. The Falcons don't do a lot of this, but it was effective for them when they did it versus the Packers Pass O. Its a natural counter to the four or five wide package and can also defeat a two or three man route combo.
But it would be an ideal time to see Jackson repeat that screen game.
Bill Barnwell, 14 Jan, 2011
The Packers outplayed the Falcons despite losing the Week 12 game between the two, 20-17. The difference between the two teams comes down to two key plays that aren't particularly sustainable: Aaron Rodgers fumbled on a quarterback sneak on the Falcons' one-yard line in the second quarter, and the Packers' special teams went all Keystone Kops on the final kickoff of the game. Well, the Green Bay special teams having a bad day isn't a shocking development, but a face mask penalty on a kickoff in a tie game with :49 left is specifically hard to re-create. There will be other ways they can fail.
They face a Falcons team, though, that should blush any time their 13-3 record is mentioned. They were 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, had 11.2 Pythagorean wins, and -- most importantly -- have slipped in two very big ways down the stretch. If the Falcons play on Sunday like they did during the second half of the season, the narrative you're likely to hear surrounding them is horribly incorrect. During the second half of the season, the Falcons couldn't stop the run and they couldn't run the ball themselves. At all.
They face a Falcons team, though, that should blush any time their 13-3 record is mentioned. They were 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, had 11.2 Pythagorean wins, and -- most importantly -- have slipped in two very big ways down the stretch. If the Falcons play on Sunday like they did during the second half of the season, the narrative you're likely to hear surrounding them is horribly incorrect. During the second half of the season, the Falcons couldn't stop the run and they couldn't run the ball themselves. At all.
The narrative for the Falcons has changed. Until the midpoint of the season, the Falcons were known for running the ball and stopping the run. But both areas have slipped significantly in the second half. The pass D has not helped and the pass O has improved, but not enough to make up for the loss in the running game.
Unfortunately, the Packers played the Falcons during this dry spell. Given Capers use of nickel personnel, it is understandable why the Falcons had a temporary resurgence of it s run game. The troubling news is that Zombo is not available for this game. So that would mean Francois in for Walden to beef up the run D in nickel, or go base with Raji, Pickett and Green/Jenkins. But base would put a great deal of stress on Woodson (who would go back to playing wide) and the ILBs, who would cover Gonzalez.
On offense, the Packers might be luckier this time around. Starks is more of a threat for positive yards than Jackson in most situations. This area almost cannot help but improve over the last game. The combo of Starks and Q Johnson give the Packers the ability to use play action and have one reasonable pass blocker (Johnson) and two legitimate targets out in the routes. Add in the fact that the Packers are healthy enough to go four and five wide again. That, and Rodgers should not have to sneak for a short yardage TD. The only area of concern would be big blitzes. The Falcons don't do a lot of this, but it was effective for them when they did it versus the Packers Pass O. Its a natural counter to the four or five wide package and can also defeat a two or three man route combo.
But it would be an ideal time to see Jackson repeat that screen game.
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