The Offseason

[Lurker64]

I find that odd.

The NFL draft used to be two of my favorite days of the year. Now? It's three of my favorite days of the year. Potentially, I have a problem.

[ND72]

I would not be surprised if TT has another defensive heavy draft with a sprinkle of OL, and maybe a RB & QB(wolfe-style)

[bobblehead]

The Packers can get along without the often injured Jenkins, they have plenty of depth along the defensive line, I would like them to resign Howard Green for a veterans min, so you have three large bodies in Raji, Pickett, and Green. Along youngsters at Defensive End in Wynn, Wilson, and Neal. Drafting a defensive end in the the early rounds of the 2011 draft wouldn't be a bad statedgy either.

The Packers have a lot of linebackers under contract in 2010 but not many have a future cemented with the Packers. Hawk is due a large roster bonus in 2011, something that he probably can rework with team for an extended contract. Hawk isn't worth a huge contract, a contract of 5 years 25 million would seem realistic, but with the emergence of Bishop and having both Chillar and Barnett under contract the Packers probably won't offer Hawk a contract. I personally would like to see the Packers sign Hawk, and keep him and Bishop in the middle, and move Barnett to the outside opposite of Mathews. Barnett can use his speed in space and stay out of the wash in the middle. Barnett might give up 20 pounds to the other outside linebackers on the team, but it is hard to overlook his ability to make big plays when on the field. The rest of the outside linebackers on the roster outside Mathews are replaceable. It will be strong competition in training camp for the outside position between Walden, Zombo, and Jones. Most likely Poppinga will be kept for special teams, or cut because of his contract, and the rest of them are just fodder.

Running back, the Packers can easily go into training camp with Grant as their number one back, Jackson is a free agent and probably won't be back, he is very good at blitz pickup, and decent at catching the ball out of the backfield, but he is replacable with a younger player. Starks could make it or break it in training camp next season, he hasn't earned a spot on the roster yet for next season although he is curren't going to be 2nd on the depth chart at the open of camp. Packers are probably going to invest in a running back during the 2011 draft, value will be the key to where Thompson takes a running back.

Offensive line will need a bit of an overhall. The Packers would be foolish to go another season with Clifton as the starting left tackle without a premium replacement on the roster. Bulaga looks the part at right tackle, TJ Lang is a misfit right now, if Bulaga moves over to left tackle then Lang could be the answer at right tackle but he has not progressed since last season, and he also might be in line for a starting spot at left guard if the Packers don't resign Colledge which in all likelyhood will be the case. The Packers are going to have to spend another early draft pick on an offensive lineman, most likely at left tackle where this draft class has quality top tier depth. .

Wide receiver will be more of the same in 2011. The Packers have the best corps in the NFL, but neither Jones or Nelson have made the leaps needed to unseat Driver. Donald Driver will be back. Swain could be replaced, but he is one of the very few steady bright spots on special teams.

The Packers simply has too many fullbacks and Corey Hall looks to be out of job in 2011. John Kuhn is to valuable to the offense and to special teams, and Quinn Johnson is a road grader.

The defensive backfield is mix of old and new, with Tramon Williams turning into a shut down corner which allows Charles Woodson to roam the field. The emergence of Sam Shields is a pleasant suprise considering he was a man without a position when he was signed as a free agent. Nick Collins is an All-Pro and Peprah has done a fine job, but he might lose his job to Charles Woodson if Woodson makes the move to safety and the Packers hit the jackpot and sign Nnamdi Asomugha who has said to be interested in playing next to Charles Woodson. What was a weakness in 2009, has now become a strong hold for the Packers. Lee and Underwood could be replaced by younger players with more potential.

Kickers, Masthay has been a welcomed addition considering the Packers have struggled for ten years to find a quality punter. Mason Crosby job is at a crossroads, and the Packers would be fools to just hand him the job in 2011.

Nutz, stick around and post awhile, we miss your opinions. Time to forget the past and move forward.

One thing I find intriguing would be moving Woodson to safety in the event we find a player at CB to add to our 2 young guns. Wood could still be the nickel playing slot with Peprah or Burnett coming in as the official nickel back.

[swede]

The NFL draft used to be two of my favorite days of the year. Now? It's three of my favorite days of the year. Potentially, I have a problem.

I have a similar problem. I blame it on my ADHD. The draft allows me to stay busy with something that is at once meaningful and meaningless, important and unimportant, surprising and predictable. I prepare charts that make me feel happy when a knowledgeable guess is confirmed, and then the charts make me feel dumb when I can't get a single pick right in the second half of the first round. I root for the Packers to pick players that probably aren't even on Ted's board. And then, as in the 2009 draft, something amazing happens as in the legendary TT trade up to get Matthews!

My family cannot fathom the bonds that hold me to the draft, and I know many true green and gold smart Packer fans that are content to wait until the 7th round is over before finding out what happened. I admit I have a problem but until my family does an intervention they are stuck with me brooding over my notebooks and websites in the days before the draft, and they are stuck with me treating them like alien invaders to my private world when they need me to leave the television and return to their planet.

[mraynrand]

Time to forget the past and move forward.

He who forgets his interceptions is doomed to repeat them

[mraynrand]

I have a similar problem. I blame it on my ADHD. The draft allows me to stay busy with something that is at once meaningful and meaningless, important and unimportant, surprising and predictable. I prepare charts that make me feel happy when a knowledgeable guess is confirmed, and then the charts make me feel dumb when I can't get a single pick right in the second half of the first round. I root for the Packers to pick players that probably aren't even on Ted's board. And then, as in the 2009 draft, something amazing happens as in the legendary TT trade up to get Matthews!

My family cannot fathom the bonds that hold me to the draft, and I know many true green and gold smart Packer fans that are content to wait until the 7th round is over before finding out what happened. I admit I have a problem but until my family does an intervention they are stuck with me brooding over my notebooks and websites in the days before the draft, and they are stuck with me treating them like alien invaders to my private world when they need me to leave the television and return to their planet.

My family wanted to have me committed when I ran around the house with shouts of pure joy after Matthews was drafted. I would not settle down. Pretty much an average day the Mraynrand household.

[mraynrand]

Mason Crosby job is at a crossroads, and the Packers would be fools to just hand him the job in 2011.

I liked the whole post, but this last part just leaped out at me. Fools? Look, Crosby altered his kicks from last year where he was missing just to the right to this year where he misses off the left upright. Seriously though - the guy has done just about everything right, and there have been pages and pages about how Stubby will use him far more from 45+ than other kickers in the league. Take tomorrow - Lovie Smith most likely will have a 40-45 yard maximum cap on Gould, who is considered a total money kicker - mostly because he's accurate and Lovie doesn't put him out there for a lot of long attempts. Crosby, even in the (likely) bitter cold, will probably be trotted out there for anything within a couple of yards of 50 (unless it's extremely low scoring and Stubby has to play field position). Unless Crosby goes on a post-season five month bender, misses all the OTAs, shows up chubbier than Sebastian Janikowski, and flops on his ass in August, I can't imagine him not being a shoo-in as PK. What am I missing?

[Lurker64]

I liked the whole post, but this last part just leaped out at me. Fools? Look, Crosby altered his kicks from last year where he was missing just to the right to this year where he misses off the left upright. Seriously though - the guy has done just about everything right, and there have been pages and pages about how Stubby will use him far more from 45+ than other kickers in the league. Take tomorrow - Lovie Smith most likely will have a 40-45 yard maximum cap on Gould, who is considered a total money kicker - mostly because he's accurate and Lovie doesn't put him out there for a lot of long attempts. Crosby, even in the (likely) bitter cold, will probably be trotted out there for anything within a couple of yards of 50 (unless it's extremely low scoring and Stubby has to play field position). Unless Crosby goes on a post-season five month bender, misses all the OTAs, shows up chubbier than Sebastian Janikowski, and flops on his ass in August, I can't imagine him not being a shoo-in as PK. What am I missing?

I'll say the same thing about Crosby that I say any time someone says "it's time to replace [special team specialist]": You don't replace Mason Crosby until you find someone better. Even if Crosby is in the 80th percentile of placekickers, guys in the 81st percentile aren't exactly falling out of the sky. You might want to bring in just somebody to compete, but again that depends on how many roster spots you're allowed for camp. Since the NFLE exemption vanished so the offseason roster went from 86 to 80, teams became much less likely to keep backup specialists on the roster assuming that the P/K they already had was at least B- quality, since those late round bottom of the roster guys at RB (Arian Foster), CB (Tramon Williams), or WR (Miles Austin) may well end up helping your team a whole lot more than a second punter.

Kicking throughout the NFL just isn't very good these days. But if you can actually show me somebody better who's available and not too expensive, I'll listen. Until then, Crosby's staying.

[Deputy Nutz]

I liked the whole post, but this last part just leaped out at me. Fools? Look, Crosby altered his kicks from last year where he was missing just to the right to this year where he misses off the left upright. Seriously though - the guy has done just about everything right, and there have been pages and pages about how Stubby will use him far more from 45+ than other kickers in the league. Take tomorrow - Lovie Smith most likely will have a 40-45 yard maximum cap on Gould, who is considered a total money kicker - mostly because he's accurate and Lovie doesn't put him out there for a lot of long attempts. Crosby, even in the (likely) bitter cold, will probably be trotted out there for anything within a couple of yards of 50 (unless it's extremely low scoring and Stubby has to play field position). Unless Crosby goes on a post-season five month bender, misses all the OTAs, shows up chubbier than Sebastian Janikowski, and flops on his ass in August, I can't imagine him not being a shoo-in as PK. What am I missing?

He is average at best, and what good is it to send a kicker out for a 50+ field goal if the chances of making them are less than half? The bottom line is that Crosby hasn't had any competition in camp, so we simply don't know if there is a better kicker out there for the Packers. 78% was his average this year, which ranked him 30th in the NFL.

[bobblehead]

What am I missing?

the clutch game winners....just like crosby. I agree with almost everything you said, but for a guy with a monster leg he has missed nearly every important 4th quarter kick he has had. Made the first one of his career, and has missed countless ones since. I like mason, but I don't want him to be without competition.

[Deputy Nutz]

I have a similar problem. I blame it on my ADHD. The draft allows me to stay busy with something that is at once meaningful and meaningless, important and unimportant, surprising and predictable. I prepare charts that make me feel happy when a knowledgeable guess is confirmed, and then the charts make me feel dumb when I can't get a single pick right in the second half of the first round. I root for the Packers to pick players that probably aren't even on Ted's board. And then, as in the 2009 draft, something amazing happens as in the legendary TT trade up to get Matthews!

My family cannot fathom the bonds that hold me to the draft, and I know many true green and gold smart Packer fans that are content to wait until the 7th round is over before finding out what happened. I admit I have a problem but until my family does an intervention they are stuck with me brooding over my notebooks and websites in the days before the draft, and they are stuck with me treating them like alien invaders to my private world when they need me to leave the television and return to their planet.

I used to love the draft, and I still won't miss it. I make it an event, but they way they lay it out now with only the first round on a Thursday night really wrecks it for me. I could commit a full Saturday to the first 3 rounds of the draft, now Saturday is a throw a way day, one where I will be expected to do work around the house. The NFL really screwed this up.

[mraynrand]

He is average at best, and what good is it to send a kicker out for a 50+ field goal if the chances of making them are less than half? The bottom line is that Crosby hasn't had any competition in camp, so we simply don't know if there is a better kicker out there for the Packers. 78% was his average this year, which ranked him 30th in the NFL.

IT depends on the circumstances. But he can hit them, and others can't. I guess it doesn't hurt to bring in a competitive camp leg, you need an extra one or two anyway. Maybe the contrast will shock you.

[mraynrand]

I used to love the draft, and I still won't miss it. I make it an event, but they way they lay it out now with only the first round on a Thursday night really wrecks it for me. I could commit a full Saturday to the first 3 rounds of the draft, now Saturday is a throw a way day, one where I will be expected to do work around the house. The NFL really screwed this up.

DVR

[Patler]

He is average at best, and what good is it to send a kicker out for a 50+ field goal if the chances of making them are less than half? The bottom line is that Crosby hasn't had any competition in camp, so we simply don't know if there is a better kicker out there for the Packers. 78% was his average this year, which ranked him 30th in the NFL.

David Akers has been named to the Pro-Bowl five times and a first team All-Pro four time. Let's compare:

Overall:
Akers - 294/359 81.9%
Crosby - 107/137 78.1%

0-19 yards
Akers - 5/5 100%
Crosby - 4/4 100%

20-29 yards
Akers - 95/96 99%
Crosby - 36/37 97.3%

30-39 yards
Akers - 96/109 88.1%
Crosby - 31/38 81.6%

40-49 yards
Akers - 83/117 70.9%
Crosby - 26/37 70.3%

50+
Akers - 15/32 46.9%
Crosby - 10/21 47.6%

Two things jump out at me, looking at those stats:

- The difference at 30-39 yards. That seems to be Crosby's only weakness. However, his sample size is somewhat small, thus magnifying the significance of each miss. If he "fixes" that he compares favorably to a perennial Pro-Bowl/All Pro kicker.

- 21 of Crosby's 137 attempts have been from 50 or more. That's 15% of his attempts. 32 of Akers' 359 attempts have been from 50 yards or more. That's 9%. For Crosby, 1 of every 7 is from 50+. For Akers, 1 of 11. Since that is clearly where success drops significantly, kicking that frequently from that distance hurts Crosby's overall success rate a lot.


Really, we should expect this. For most of Crosby's career the Packers have been very successful scoring TDs when they get inside the red zone. As a result, Crosby has fewer chances for the most makeable FGs. Couple that with MM's willingness to try 50-55 yarders whenever possible, and you will have a fieldgoal kicker that has almost no chance to match the success rate of kickers on teams that struggle to score TDs in the red zone.

[Deputy Nutz]

Well I guess Crosby is the "bee's knees" then. I am sorry I am not sold on the progress he has made, and I would rather have a rock of a kicker from 45 yards and in than one that has a 47% chance of making a 54 yard field goal.

Crosby is servicable, no doubt, but do you trust him with the game on the line from 46 yards out? At this point in his career he should be counted on to nail that kick, and I don't think many of you can express that kind of faith in him.