Defense Wins Championships?

[bobblehead]

It sounds like Capers learned a lot of zone blitz concepts from the coaches that were at Penn State in the early 1980s. Dom incorporated those in other gigs before landing the Pittsburgh DC job. LeBeau had experience with zone blitz concepts, as well. LeBeau was actually the DB coach for Green Bay in the late 1970s--under a DC who played a 4-3 with no zone blitz concepts. I think both guys actually learned from others, expanded on the concepts before getting to Pittsburgh, and were enamored with the scheme when they got to Pittsburgh. It sounds like they initially used more of Capers scheme when first getting to Pittsburgh, but Pittsburgh didn't have the personnel to run his scheme effectively, so they morphed his concepts with LeBeau's concepts.

Here's a good article on this very issue.

Super DCs at ground floor of zone-blitz revolution

That was a good one, read it earlier. I think I took the line about it being reported that Le Beau taught it to Capers and it stuck in my head. As with anything good, many contributed to it and the two masters are in the superbowl.

[vince]

More on the importance of passing D from CHFF.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3673_The_mighty_pick-six_%28and_other_SB_notes%29.html

The magic of Passer Rating Differential

We introduced Passer Rating Differential as a way to statistically define and prove the all-encompassing importance of the passing game in pro football.

Anecdotal experience told us that Passer Rating Differential would be deadly accurate. But now we have a mounting body of evidence.

The Saints topped the indicator in 2009. They won the Super Bowl. The Packers topped the indicator in 2010. They won the Super Bowl, too.

That's two for two, for those of you keeping score at home.

Meanwhile, within a game, teams that posted the higher Passer Rating Differential won nearly 80 percent of all NFL games this year (203-53).

And as a predictor of playoff success, it was nearly flawless: the team with the higher Passer Rating Differential was 10-1. The ony game it failed to identify the winner was in Seattle's shocking wildcard win over New Orleans, an outcome that nobody but the biggest Seahawks rump swab could have anticipated.

The Packers were the perfect passing team this year: No. 1 in forcing Negative Pass Plays, No. 1 in Defensive Passer Rating and No. 1 in Passer Rating Differential. And now they’re Super Bowl champs.

[gbgary]

thanks for the update.

The big guys will get him down. I doubt you'll see many corner blitzes this game.

you were right. not many blitzes of any type. can only think of a few.

[RashanGary]

We have talent and the best DC in football IMO. No shock we're SB champs.

[Lurker64]

It surprises me how few of the "Packers run defense is poor" reports failed to note the fact that we line up in the nickel defense on 75% of plays. Stopping the run whenever it happens is much less important than stopping it when you need to (or just making sure the other team can't beat you by running the ball.)

[vince]

It surprises me how few of the "Packers run defense is poor" reports failed to note the fact that we line up in the nickel defense on 75% of plays.

They didn't notice.

[bobblehead]

More on the importance of passing D from CHFF.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3673_The_mighty_pick-six_%28and_other_SB_notes%29.html

The magic of Passer Rating Differential

We introduced Passer Rating Differential as a way to statistically define and prove the all-encompassing importance of the passing game in pro football.

Anecdotal experience told us that Passer Rating Differential would be deadly accurate. But now we have a mounting body of evidence.

The Saints topped the indicator in 2009. They won the Super Bowl. The Packers topped the indicator in 2010. They won the Super Bowl, too.

That's two for two, for those of you keeping score at home.

Meanwhile, within a game, teams that posted the higher Passer Rating Differential won nearly 80 percent of all NFL games this year (203-53).

And as a predictor of playoff success, it was nearly flawless: the team with the higher Passer Rating Differential was 10-1. The ony game it failed to identify the winner was in Seattle's shocking wildcard win over New Orleans, an outcome that nobody but the biggest Seahawks rump swab could have anticipated.

The Packers were the perfect passing team this year: No. 1 in forcing Negative Pass Plays, No. 1 in Defensive Passer Rating and No. 1 in Passer Rating Differential. And now they’re Super Bowl champs.

that is a monster number. Where can i find this stat as a regular updated thing as I bet a ton of pro football and this seems like a powerful tool. One question I would have though. The 203-53....was that calculated based on final numbers after the season, or was it a running total based on the numbers at the time the game was played. Big difference. (yes, I make a living analyzing stats vs. damn lies.)

[woodbuck27]

It sounds like Capers learned a lot of zone blitz concepts from the coaches that were at Penn State in the early 1980s. Dom incorporated those in other gigs before landing the Pittsburgh DC job. LeBeau had experience with zone blitz concepts, as well. LeBeau was actually the DB coach for Green Bay in the late 1970s--under a DC who played a 4-3 with no zone blitz concepts. I think both guys actually learned from others, expanded on the concepts before getting to Pittsburgh, and were enamored with the scheme when they got to Pittsburgh. It sounds like they initially used more of Capers scheme when first getting to Pittsburgh, but Pittsburgh didn't have the personnel to run his scheme effectively, so they morphed his concepts with LeBeau's concepts.

Here's a good article on this very issue.

Super DCs at ground floor of zone-blitz revolution

Thanks Harv.

[vince]

All the nickel the Packers played this year would indicates that Dom has this figured out too. Today's "Ask Vic" column on Packers.com confirms it.

Jim from Yorkville, IL

Can we put the franchise tag on Dom Capers?

Vic: I have never covered an assistant coach who had a greater and more immediate impact on a defense than what coach Capers had in Pittsburgh and in Jacksonville. Now, of course, he has had that same impact on the Packers’ defense. One of the first people I wanted to see when I got to Green Bay was coach Capers, because we go back so far. We sat and talked recently and, of course, we talked about old times. His recall is amazing and I think it’s that recall that makes for a great coordinator because you gotta be quick upstairs to process information and make your next chess move. Here’s an example of coach Capers’ recall: I told him about how I remembered the final regular-season game of the 1994 season, when coach Capers had the number one defense in the league entering a meaningless finale. Well, Bill Cowher decided to ease up in the second half by playing reserves, etc., and it resulted in an avalanche of yards and points for the Chargers. I told Dom that I’ll always remember him sitting on the bus outside Jack Murphy Stadium (it was Christmas Eve), looking through the final stats and then saying, “Merry Christmas to me.” Coach Capers laughed when I said that and then he said, “We had a 166-yard edge over the Cowboys going into that game.” What? Are you kidding me? Sixteen years later he could still remember having a 166-yard edge over the Cowboys. It knocked me out that he could remember the exact yardage. Well, back then, coach Capers was all about turnover differential, but during our most recent chat he dropped a new one on me: quarterback passer rating differential. He explained that the Packers enjoyed a 40-some point advantage in passer rating differential during the postseason. I have no doubt that’s a coach Capers original. He’s an amazing coach.

[vince]

that is a monster number. Where can i find this stat as a regular updated thing as I bet a ton of pro football and this seems like a powerful tool. One question I would have though. The 203-53....was that calculated based on final numbers after the season, or was it a running total based on the numbers at the time the game was played. Big difference. (yes, I make a living analyzing stats vs. damn lies.)

Based on how it's stated, it appears to me that they're saying the QB with the higher QB rating for THAT GAME wins 80% of the time. I'm sure you can email the author though.

Also, they track the stat at CHFF. http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...ferential.html

[Guiness]

that is a monster number. Where can i find this stat as a regular updated thing as I bet a ton of pro football and this seems like a powerful tool. One question I would have though. The 203-53....was that calculated based on final numbers after the season, or was it a running total based on the numbers at the time the game was played. Big difference. (yes, I make a living analyzing stats vs. damn lies.)

I was thinking the same thing - a 4:1 predictor ratio would be a heck of a tool, you could play that sort of a line into some serious money.

Vince, I don't think it's a retrospective number, as in, 'the team with the higher passer rating won'. That's a 'well, duh' sort of statement. They say the team with the higher passer rating differential, which sounds like each team has a different number. If it was just for the one game, there would just be one number, not a matter of one being higher than the other. I think

[vince]

I was thinking the same thing - a 4:1 predictor ratio would be a heck of a tool, you could play that sort of a line into some serious money.

Vince, I don't think it's a retrospective number, as in, 'the team with the higher passer rating won'. That's a 'well, duh' sort of statement. They say the team with the higher passer rating differential, which sounds like each team has a different number. If it was just for the one game, there would just be one number, not a matter of one being higher than the other. I think

Here's the original quote again.

Meanwhile, within a game, teams that posted the higher Passer Rating Differential won nearly 80 percent of all NFL games this year (203-53).

Each team has a very different number within a game. One's positive and the other's negative. That's as different as you can get. When the author stated this, he was just proving how important the stat is to winning, not saying how it can be used (in this context) as a way to win money.

As Bobble pointed out earlier, there's a lot that goes into this stat. The bottom line though, is that it appears that the 2 biggest keys to success in this league are being able to pass the ball and defend the pass effectively. Not earthshattering news, but it's a pretty darn good piece of info to know as a certainty and a good way to break down teams and games as well as think about defensive strategy and even how the makeup of the roster will continue to evolve over time.

[Fritz]

Bo Schembecler is puking in his grave.

And that's why that guy could never win the Rose Bowl.

[get louder at lambeau]

Bo Schembecler is puking in his grave.

Don't worry, I'm sure the worms will clean it up.

[Fritz]

The worms go in, the worms go out.