MOCK DRAFTS

[Bretsky]

Here are some updates; feel free to post your fav site's mock as well. I'd jump at Brooks Reed there

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/118137134.html

OK, it's early, but here's how several mock drafts are predicting the Packers' draft pick at No. 32 overall:

- Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa (Pat Kirwan, NFL.com)
- Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia (Nolan Nawrocki, Pro Football Weekly)
- Brooks Reed, DE/OLB, Arizona (Todd McShay, ESPN)
- Brooks Reed, DE/OLB, Arizona (Chad Reuter, CBSsports.com)
- Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple (Russ Lande, Sporting News)
- Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple (Bob Fox, packerchatters.com)
- Martez Wilson LB Illinois (Rob Rang, CBSsports.com)
- Martez Wilson LB Illinois (Bucky Brooks, NFL.com)

[Lurker64]

I like Clayborn and Wilkerson as prospects, but I don't think we really need to take a 5-tech with our top pick.

I'm not sure if Martez Wilson can play OLB in our scheme. Honestly haven't seen enough of him to make this evaluation. But I suspect he's an ILB, and we don't need more of those.

I don't think that Justin Houston is suited to playing OLB in the NFL. Even though he was a 3-4 OLB in college, he clearly would prefer to play 4-3 DE in the NFL and he's fairly tight in space. I would take Brooks Reed over Justin Houston 99% of the time.

Surprised that nobody sent an OL our way. I would think somebody would mock us a guy like Ijalana (who I would be happy with honestly).

[packrulz]

If TT lets Barnett go, I'm not so sure we don't need an ILB, Justin Houston or Akeem Ayers can play both and would provide depth.

[Lurker64]

If TT lets Barnett go, I'm not so sure we don't need an ILB, Justin Houston or Akeem Ayers can play both and would provide depth.

If you think we need a backup ILB enough to be worthy of spending our highest pick on one, and paying him a first round pick's salary... then just keep Barnett and draft somebody else.

[privatepacker]

If Barnett and Chiller are unable to be 100% or not around, I would think an inside LB would be approriate in later rounds (3-4). TT has shown to take WRs in the first 3 rounds so that is a possibility but bottom line doubt if OLB is that high on the agenda. Why you might ask, Zombo and Walden played very well last year and you have Jones coming back. It's a deep group and they want to see what Zombo and Walden can do w/ a mini-camp and strong off-season work outs. (May be for naught if they don't settle soon.)
To me that leaves OL and skilled positions. If none of the 1st. rd. tackles pan out, I think TT trades down to an early 2nd. rd. player. Cobb, Young or maybe a player like Watkins.
The question of a player like Ingram setting at 32 would TT pull the trigger for the best RB in the draft, I would say he would.

[packrulz]

If you think we need a backup ILB enough to be worthy of spending our highest pick on one, and paying him a first round pick's salary... then just keep Barnett and draft somebody else.

Barnett could make 6 million this season:
2011: $5.5 million (+ $375,000 roster bonus + $150,000 workout bonus)
Since the players don't have a contract, it's hard to say what a 32nd pick in the first round will be getting, but most people agree the rookie pay scale is going to drop sharply. Houston and Ayers can play both ILB and OLB, TT likes versatile players, he's already been scouting Brooks Reed, and some charts have both Houston and Ayers ranked higher than him.

[Lurker64]

I just disagree, in principle, with spending a first round pick on a guy who is not in line to start in the next four years (the duration of Hawk and Bishop's contracts).

And while Thompson may like versatile players, he's really shown that tendency when drafting offensive linemen more than anything else. We don't really have any OLB/ILB tweeners.

But if Greene, Capers, Thompson et. al. think that Wilson can play OLB in our system, then sure... it's a fine pick.

[RashanGary]

I kind of like Brooks Reed just at first glance. Bigger than Clay coming out. Clay had off the charts athleticism. Reed's is great, but not off the charts. No OLB heavier ran faster. No OLB at all ran a faster 10 yard split. He ran a solid 3 cone and an amazing shuttle. He's been very productive for several seasons in a row.

He seems like a very, very safe pick just lookign at production and athleticism. Almost as athletic as clay (except for the 3 cone) and bigger. I'm curious to see his youtube clips when I get home. He seems to have the ingredients of being a star.

[Fritz]

How about a QB like Christian Ponder?

[RashanGary]

Just watched some Brooks Reed highlights. I don't know if he's quite as flexible as Clay rounding the corner, but damn, this guy closes fast. He had several plays here he flat out torched the OL in front of him. That's always nice to see. And then there was one friggin WOW hit on a QB.

Fast, strong, intense. . . . He'd look sweet opposite Clay. Our D would be just nasty if we had a guy who was a legitimate threat to rush the passer next to Matthews.

[swede]

Just watched some Brooks Reed highlights. I don't know if he's quite as flexible as Clay rounding the corner, but damn, this guy closes fast. He had several plays here he flat out torched the OL in front of him. That's always nice to see. And then there was one friggin WOW hit on a QB.

Fast, strong, intense. . . . He'd look sweet opposite Clay. Our D would be just nasty if we had a guy who was a legitimate threat to rush the passer next to Matthews.

I liked the highlights I saw as well, but half of them came against Iowa, and a few other big plays were blown assignments or piss poor efforts by a running back. I watched a presser he gave and he seems like a no-nonsense football loving kid, not as flamboyant as CMIII and not as quiet as Hawk. I found a top 100 players list that didn't list him at all, and yet I found him going 26-32 in a number of mock drafts.

Motor, character, fastest 10 yard split among LBs...yeah I could see TT picking this guy.

[packrulz]

I just disagree, in principle, with spending a first round pick on a guy who is not in line to start in the next four years (the duration of Hawk and Bishop's contracts).

And while Thompson may like versatile players, he's really shown that tendency when drafting offensive linemen more than anything else. We don't really have any OLB/ILB tweeners.

But if Greene, Capers, Thompson et. al. think that Wilson can play OLB in our system, then sure... it's a fine pick.

I agree the offensive line worries me more than any other position, Cliffy isn't going to play forever, Colledge is probably gone, so they need to figure out what they're going to do there. I could see drafting Stefen Wisniewski, C, Penn State, who started all 4 years and has also played guard.

[packrulz]

An obsession for all things draft
By Vic Ketchman, packers.com editor
Posted Mar 17, 2011
Life began for Tony Villiotti at age 57. That's when he exited the boring world of a finance officer, the career that paid his bills, and wrapped his arms around his first love, the NFL draft, his labors of which he offers to fans for free.

“I’ve always been real interested in the draft. Player acquisition really intrigues me. I always wanted to be a general manager, although I wouldn’t want to be one now during a lockout. I worked in business but sports was my real interest,” Villiotti said.

Villiotti is the creator of draftmetrics.com, a website for fans of the NFL draft that share Villiotti’s fascination for and obsession with all things draft-related. It’s a good read and it’s free, so it has that going for it, which is nice.

Once upon a time, he wanted to be a Mel Kiper type. Villiotti evaluated draft prospects and offered his reviews for purchase, but he quickly saw Kiper and the late, great Joel Buchsbaum had already cornered the market. Villiotti didn’t want to leave the draftnik arena but he needed a new schtick, and then it hit him: Instead of evaluating the prospects, he’d evaluate the picks.

“I got to go to the draft a couple of times. There ends up being so many guys doing that, the Mel Kipers, that I gave it up,” Villiotti said.

So Villiotti changed his target audience from the fans to the teams. He had long given up on the money part of it. His job as a finance officer had already taken care of the money part. He was retired now. He just wanted to have fun. He wanted to live, eat and breathe the draft.

“I did a soft-cover book on results of the draft that sold to half of the NFL teams: “The NFL Draft; an Historical Perspective,” he said of his book.

Last year, Villiotti published a book entitled, “Draft Metrics.” He sold it to the Colts, Saints and Browns.

Why would NFL teams buy information from a former finance officer? Because everybody involved in the draft is frantic to acquire any crumb of information that might make the difference between a hit and a miss.

Villiotti decided the book version of his statistical studies was too static, so he moved the information to his latest creation, draftmetrics.com. Now he can cut and paste and update all day and all night.

“That kind of wetted my appetite to get into this thing whole hog,” he said. “I’m doing it for fun. At this stage of my life, I’m not looking for a new career. If I didn’t do this, my wife would find things for me to do around the house.”

OK, so what interesting trends has Villiotti detected in evaluating the last 20 years of the NFL draft?

“To me, the most interesting thing is where the cut offs are. Picks 1-13 look like they’re of equal value. Picks 14-28 are another grouping,” Villiotti said.

In other words, the 13th overall pick is as good as the first overall pick, except it’s a lot less expensive, and good players tend to last to the 28th overall selection, at which point there’s another significant drop in talent level.

Another fact of interest Villiotti uncovered concerns the hit/miss ratio according to position. Villiotti quickly detected “how much riskier the skilled positions were, as compared to the offensive and defensive lines. I also looked at where starters come from,” he said.

Wide receivers?

“The best value I would say is about late second through mid-fourth,” Villiotti said.

Which teams are the best drafters?

“The Steelers are definitely number one over a 20-year period. The Titans have done well. Then there’s a pack of about four teams, the Packers being one of them: the Packers, the Bills, the Cowboys and the Patriots,” Villiotti said.

“The Packers have been, maybe, the most successful team in drafting from the middle of the second round to the middle of the fourth. In the first round, I don’t think the good teams are that much better. It’s in the mid to late rounds that the good teams shine, and they don’t give up their picks.”

His site is currently boasting an exhaustive study on the value of trading up. He comes to the opinion the home runs and strikeouts cancel each other out and that there’s no evidence of a trend that supports trading up or resisting the temptation.

“I’d say Emmitt Smith, Polamalu and Clay Matthews,” Villiotti said when asked of home-run trade-ups. He also added the Bucs trading up for Derek Brooks in 1995, the Titans trading up for Eddie George in ’96 and the Chiefs trading up for Tony Gonzalez in ’97.”

The bad trade-ups?

“The worst was the Chiefs traded up to number six for Ryan Sims; the Chargers for Ryan Leaf in ’98, the Colts for Trev Alberts in ’94 and the Bengals for Ki-Jana Carter in ’95,” Villiotti said.

It’s draft time and those who share Villiotti’s obsession for all things draft just can’t get enough information to satisfy their appetite. His website helps.

Visit Draftmetrics website: http://draftmetrics.com/

Vic Ketchman is a veteran of 39 NFL seasons and has covered the Steelers and Jaguars prior to coming to Green Bay.

[packrulz]

Strong Pro Day from Gabbert could push him to 1

Posted on: March 17, 2011 3:22 pm
A strong throwing session from Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert could push him to the No. 1 overall pick.

According to a Twitter note from Dave Matter of the Columbia Daily Tribune, Gabbert completed 44 of 49 passes and characterized "at least three" of the incompletions to drops by the collection of D-II receivers organized for the workout. With Missouri having no draft-eligible receivers, he was left to rely on others, rather than former teammates to catch his passes.

A source on the scene characterized Gabbert's workout as a "8" when asked to score it on a scale of 1-10. The source pointed out some "little issues intermediate and deep." But also noted "good velocity and accuracy on the move."

Gabbert's "little issues" on deeper passes wasn't unexpected. This was a primary concern based off of the largely horizontal (rather than vertical) passing he was asked to do while operating Missouri's spread attack.

In demonstrating good footwork from under center and accuracy while on the run, Gabbert helped alleviate concerns about his ability to translate to a more traditional pro-style offense.

As expected, the Missouri Pro Day was well attended by NFL decision-makers, including Jets' head coach Rex Ryan, Ravens' head coach John Harbaugh, 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh, Bengals' head coach Marvin Lewis, and Jaguars' head coach Jack Del Rio.

We'll have more updates from Missouri's Pro Day as the day goes on, including a report on pass rusher Aldon Smith's attempts to better a rather disappointing Combine workout.

Underrated CB Davon House runs 4.32 at Pro Day

Posted on: March 18, 2011 1:43 pm
Prior to the Combine, there was plenty of buzz in the scouting community that New Mexico State cornerback Davon House was going to run very well in Indianapolis.

Though he did run well (4.44-4.50) there, the 6-0, 200 pound House had been expected to be among the fastest cornerbacks tested in Indianapolis and elected to run again Friday at his Pro Day, recording times in the 4.32-4.35 second range, according to a source at the scene.

House elected not to do any of the other measureable drills Friday. He was run through a positional workout by Chicago Bears' assistant defensive backs/safeties coach Gill Byrd and "did good, caught everything," according to the source.

Catching everything isn't a surprise for House. What he might lack in national name recognition, he made up for with a stellar career.

House, a four year starter for the Aggies, was a two-time First-Team All-WAC pick who leaves with 198 career tackles, along with 46 passes broken up and 11 interceptions -- three of which he returned for touchdowns.

There were approximately 15 teams on hand for the workout, according to the source, including representatives from the Chicago Bears (scout, as well as Byrd), Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, Oakland Raiders, Buffalo Bills and New York Giants.

House is NFLDraftScout.com's No. 7 rated cornerback for the 2011 NFL Draft and is expected to be selected in the 2nd round.

[woodbuck27]

Visit Draftmetrics website: http://draftmetrics.com/

Thanks packrulz.