TT, OL, and the 3-Cone Drill.

[Lurker64]

Since coming to Green Bay, Ted Thompson has drafted 12 offensive linemen in his six drafts. A curious commonality arises when you look at the combine statistics of each of these players.

2005
Junius Coston 7.93 cone, 4.64 shuttle
Will Whittacker 7.90 cone, 4.75 shuttle

2006
Daryn Colledge 7.46 cone, 4.6 shuttle
Jason Spitz 7.82 cone, 4.56 shuttle
Tony Moll N/A

2007
Allen Barbre 7.40 cone, 4.63 shuttle

2008
Josh Sitton 7.55 cone, 4.50 shuttle
Breno Giacomini 7.56 cone, 4.63 shuttle

2009
T.J. Lang no cone, 4.42 shuttle
Jamon Meredith 8.01 cone, 4.82 shuttle

2010
Bryan Bulaga 7.70 cone, 4.75 shuttle
Marshall Newhouse 7.40 cone, 4.6 shuttle

Looking at this, it seems that the OL prospects that TT drafts fall into three categories:
1)Need picks at C/G (Spitz, Coston, Whitticker),
2)Guys who fall from projections (Bulaga, Meredith),
3)Guys with a good 3-cone (<7.65) and/or good shuttles (<4.65).

Excepting Moll, who I strongly suspect would fall into the latter category being a converted TE, literally everybody TT has drafted on the OL falls into one of these categories and we can all pretty much agree that Whitticker, Coston, and Meredith were bad picks that TT would admit were mistakes.

So if we're looking at TT OL, we're looking at guys with good cones and/or good shuttles.

Guys with better than a 7.65 cone at the combine:

OT group
David Arkin, Missouri State (7.60)
Anthony Castonzo, Boston College (7.25)
Daniel Kilgore, Appalachian State (7.59)
Jerriel King, South Carolina (7.60)
Mike Perston, Montana State (7.44)
Derrick Sherrod, Mississippi State (7.43)
Nate Solder, Colorado (7.44)
Danny Watkins, Baylor (7.61)

OG group
Justin Boren, Ohio State (7.57)
Andrew Jackson, Fresno State (7.55)
Julian Vandervelde, Iowa (7.46)

C group
Ryan Bartholomew, Syracuse (7.62)
Brandon Fusco, Slippery Rock (7.29)
Jason Kelce, Cincinnati (7.22)
Zack Williams, Washington State (7.54)
Stefan Wisniewski, Penn State (7.51)

Guys with better than a 4.65 shuttle at the combine:

OT group
David Arkin, Missouri State (4.63)
Clint Boling, Georgia (4.64)
Anthony Castonzo, BC (4.40)
Derrick Sherrod, Mississippi State (4.63)
Nate Solder, Colorado (4.34)
Danny Watkins, Baylor (4.62)

OG group
John Moffit, Wisconsin (4.53)
Stephen Schilling, Michigan (4.62)
Julian Vandervelde, Iowa (4.59)

C Group
Ryan Bartholomew, Syracuse (4.62)
Brandon Fusco, Slippery Rock (4.43)
Jason Kelce, Cincinnati (4.14)
Alex Linnerkohl, Oregon State (4.62)
Zack Williams, Washington State (4.62)
Stefan Wisniewski, Penn State (4.63)

Everybody else either didn't work out at the combine due to injury(e.g. Ben Ijalana, Tyron Smith) or weren't invited (copious small school guys).

So since we don't have serious needs at any of the OL positions, it's unlikely that we reach for a Coston, Spitz, or Whitticker. TT isn't above taking a slower guy who falls precipitously, and we can't rule out anybody having that happen to him. But odds are that anybody who TT takes on the OL is either a smaller school prospect who passes the <7.65/<4.65 test or was named above.

So the guys to look hard at are the guys who were on both lists, namely: Arkin, Castonzo, Sherrod, Solder, Watkins, Vandervelde, Bartholomew, Fusco, Kelce, Williams, Wisniewski, as well as any small school guys who pass the <7.65/<4.65 test (If you've been looking at any, kindly post them here). Don't just look at first and second round prospects either, TT usually takes an OL on the last day so someone like Fusco or Vandervelde late seems entirely likely.

Anybody with a 3-cone worse than 7.65 and a shuttle worse than 4.65 it's probably worth taking a step back and asking whether TT would really take that guy. If he falls (a la Bulaga or Meredith) he probably would, but it's a function of how far he falls. Bulaga wasn't significantly worse than the apparent standard, and his fall wasn't enormous while Meredith was far off the apparent standard though his fall (considered a 2nd round candidate, selected in the fifth) was dramatic.

Just some food for thought.

[Lurker64]

Even though I do love what I've seen from him in games, this does bode poorly for Ben Ijalana (7.75 cone, 4.7 shuttle) ending up a Packer, though if the Packers have him rated highly and he's there at 32 he could be a Bulaga-style pick (worse than the requirement, but not a lot worse). It's also not entirely clear to me whether recovering from a sports hernia would hurt his performance in either of these drills.

Unfortunately, Carimi did not do either drill at either the combine or his pro day. Regardless, I'm pretty sure that TT's scouts spot this kind of athleticism on film first and the tests are just a check.

[Tarlam!]

Lurker, just wanna thank you for all the great draft input you're providing to Packer Rats. The research you're doing amazes me. Thanks!

[RashanGary]

Carpenter had better than 7.65 3-cone, but he did it at his proday so Carpenter is a TT type pick.

Bryan Bulaga vs James Carpenter

Height: 6'5" - 6'4" Slight Advantage Bulaga
Weight: 314 - 321 Slight Advantage Carpenter
10 Yard: 1.78 - 1.81 Slight Advantage Bulaga
40 Yard: 5.20 - 5.22 Slight Advantage Bulaga
Vertical: 27.5 - 28.5 Slight Advantage Carpenter
Broad: - 8'02" - 8'10" Slight Advantage Carpenter
Shuttle: 4.75 - 4.75 Even
3-Cone: 7.70 - 7.56 Advantage Carpenter

Quote on Carpenter "He has pretty good feet and he's had great coaching," Polian said, referring to Crimson Tide O-line coach Joe Pendry

Quote on Bulaga - I don't want to dig for one, but Iowa's OL coaching is notorious for producing NFL ready OL so I'll give the slight advantage to Bulaga here.

Carpenter - All SEC selection 2010
Bulaga - All Big 10 selection 2009


Bob McGinn's draft publication is the best I've seen. A lot of places have Carpenter at the end of the 2nd round. McGinn has Carpenter as the top OL in the 2nd round. Carpenters resume is top notch and he's a very good athlete. He's about as safe of a bet as there is in this draft to be a 10 year starter at RT. I think McGinn's scouts could be sand bagging him a little. I expect Carpenter to be drafted at the end of the first round, possibly to us, and possibly over one or two of the consensus 1st round OT's.

[Fritz]

I think this makes Sherrod the most logical pick, then, from this group, because he is above the standard in both drills and he's an OT. TT has a bit of a history of drafting guys who played outside, then moving them in. Wasn't Colledge or one of them a tight end at the beginning of college, then moved inside as he went? And Lang was a tackle, as was Newhouse. Both now being considered for guard.

[Bretsky]

JH; perhaps Carpenter becomes the guy everybody wishes they had drafted last year. Roger Staffold was amazing.....Rams....top of round two

[RashanGary]

JH; perhaps Carpenter becomes the guy everybody wishes they had drafted last year. Roger Staffold was amazing.....Rams....top of round two

I was a big Saffold fan last year. Very comparable. Saffold is an elite athlete, could play left tackle. Carpenter is a just a very good athlete, but Carpenter plays for a former NFL OL coach and against better competition. The fact that he won all SEC OT gives him a steadiness edge over Saffold. Carpenter is as steady as they get. If we want a rock solid RT for the next 10 years, I think Carpenter would be it. Would have to hope Bulaga makes the smooth switch to LT.

[Bretsky]

You on board wtih TT trading down to Bulffalo, Cincy, or Tennessee's pick (who all may be trying to get up here to get their QB) and taking Carpenter at top of 2nd round ?
I'm down for that. We pick up their 4th maybe and it's such a high 4th it's like a late 3rd. Lot of good players in this deep draft....just not a lot of superstars

[RashanGary]

I would, but I think he might be better than early 2nd even. Last year they had Alualu going between the mid 2nd and 3rd rounds. He ended up going 10th overall. I was all over him because he was a 300lb DE who averaged 6-7 sacks per year playing 5 technique. He was every bit the athlete as the top DT's. I thought, "how can this guy be as productive as those guys, in a major conference, put up athletic numbers like those guys and be a rock solid citizen and not go higher than the mid 2nd round?"

Well, we went a lot higher. He went within 9 picks of Suh and McCoy, just like his production and athleticism would warrant.


Carpenter is similar to that. He was rock solid, playing in a pro style blocking system. He's a very good athlete. He won all-SEC OT voted by coaches. What does this guy have to do? He has the athletic numbers of the top guys. He's done it against the best, in a pro style system. He's been better than everyone else.

To me, this is this years Alualu. He's great. He's athletic. He want's to get better. No reason not to draft him high. 2 years at JUCO had him under the radar. Playing 5-tech in the PAC 10 had Alualu under the radar. 20 sacks in three years isn't as big of a deal for a DE, but he was playing more of a DT role with a DE title. That's why the media missed him. They should have been comparing him to Suh and McCoy (who he performed on par with) but they were comparing him to edge rushers (which he was not).

Carpenter wasn't picked up by a big school out of high school. He didn't get on any of those lists, but when Saban plucked him from Butte, he came in and dominated. Problem is, nobody knows his name, but I'll bet the NFL GM's do, just the way they knew Alualu's name.

[Tarlam!]

With all due respect to JH, but somebody please explain to me why the draftniks aren't higher on Carpenter?

[RashanGary]

With all due respect to JH, but somebody please explain to me why the draftniks aren't higher on Carpenter?

Because he came from JUCO and doesn't have a big name. College players sort of build hype through their college careers. Alabama fans get all stoked about their 5 star OT recruit. As a freshman, they talk about how good he played for an 18 year old. As a sophmore, they start to ooze about how dominant he is. As a JR, the coaches and media start hyping him, especially if he's a leader. Then, by the time they get drafted, everyone knows their name.

Carpenter was plucked from JUCO. Fans say, "well, he can get us by until Saban can get us a real stud LT." But then he goes out there and has a great first year. But the nature of fans is to dream of what's to come. He's already pretty much maxed out. No hype. His second year (sr year) he rips it up, but he's gone after this year and none of they hype really lead up to it. Media doesn't call his name, he just sort of quietly kicks ass. He gets voted All SEC by the coaches. He puts up an excellent combine.

He should be rated higher, but he's not. Same way Tramon always should have been rated higher. I remember reading all of the, "yeah, he's alright, but Will Blackmon has more upside" and "yeah, he's an OK nickle, but that's about it." He went under the radar. He was always good, always highly talented, the media and fans and even coaches somtimes tend to be behind on the players they first impression as so/so.

He got first impressioned as so/so, but he played great. That's why I think he's underrated, because human nature is to hang onto first impressions long after they've been shown wrong.

[Lurker64]

You on board wtih TT trading down to Bulffalo, Cincy, or Tennessee's pick (who all may be trying to get up here to get their QB) and taking Carpenter at top of 2nd round ?
I'm down for that. We pick up their 4th maybe and it's such a high 4th it's like a late 3rd. Lot of good players in this deep draft....just not a lot of superstars

I'm okay with taking Carpenter, but at the bottom of the 2nd not the top. He's, IMO, a day 2 guy through and through. It's not his athleticism that worries me, it's his coordination and his pad level.

Carpenter is in that group of "guys we can target in the second round if we don't pick that position in the first" he's like the Moch or Acho of the OL class.

But I agree that Carpenter is under consideration for a TT guy. The idea in this thread is mostly useful for being able to, at a glance, look at a guy and disqualify him from the Packers taking him near where he was slotted (Marcus Cannon with a 8.07 cone and a 4.97 shuttle? We're not taking him).

[Tarlam!]

Because he came from JUCO and doesn't have a big name.

I assume JUCO means Jr. colledge? If so, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton came from JUCO. Maybe I'm proving how stupid I am, but I don't get it.

Same as the "small school" thing. Jennings and Collins were "small school".

[RashanGary]

I assume JUCO means Jr. colledge? If so, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton came from JUCO. Maybe I'm proving how stupid I am, but I don't get it.

Same as the "small school" thing. Jennings and Collins were "small school".

Jennings and Collins both were surprise picks too. They were under the radar 2nd round guys that a lot of fans complained about when we picked them.

I think Carpenter is going to go in round 1. His play and athleticism warrant it.

[Lurker64]

I assume JUCO means Jr. colledge? If so, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton came from JUCO. Maybe I'm proving how stupid I am, but I don't get it.

Same as the "small school" thing. Jennings and Collins were "small school".

Kids usually go to JUCO because they can't academically cut it to get into a big school even with lax admissions standards for football prospects, they don't get offered scholarships to D-I programs (e.g. Aaron Rodgers), or they are waiting out the year penalty for transferring (e.g. Cam Newton). It's not anybody's first choice.