Tweet
Here's my system. I think it's a pretty good one when it comes to amateur draft dorkness.
1. I look at guys who are very good athletes. Everyone talks about the slower players who are great in the NFL, well a lot of those "slower players" have crazy burst off the line (Clay Matthews for example has a so/so 40 with an insane 10 yard split). So I only really deal with guys who are good athletes, and most of them are excellent athletes. That does not mean fast 40. That means functionally athletic for their position and there are drills for that.
2. I look at production. Coaches vote for All conference is a huge one. I read through a lot of draft mumbo jumbo, and as I get my list of guys, I start crossing them off if I can't find enough relevant, positive comments from people who know (coaches primarily). I take a big dump on any media created information. I only take info from the horses mouth.
3. Bob McGinn's draft piece. I don't necessarily believe everything in it. GM's with star RB's, I'll believe their info on RB's because they don't want them. Some of the other stuff, I sort of take with a grain of salt. I ask, "does this person have motivation to mislead" and if the answer is, "yes", I don't really take it as anything I can trust. But at the end of the day, the only media draft ranking I put any weight in is McGinn's. He's profoundly right on things other draft publications consistently fail at. The reason, I think, is because he has a ton of sources and he has enough of them to get good info on just about every position.
So at the end of the day, here's a mock draft. I'll have a list of guys I think are really good in this draft some time later this week.
1st TRADE: Pick 32 for 2nd and 4th (40 and 104)
2nd TRADE: Pick 104 and our 4th for pick 86 in the 3rd round
3rd TRADE: 5th, 6th, 7th for a late 4th
We end up with:
2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, comp 4th, comp 7th
2nd - JAMES CARPENTER, OT, Alabama - This guy rocks. Excellent athlete, excellent player, excellent pick.
2nd - Allen Bailey, DE, The U - Awesome Sr season. Big, strong, fast, and productive.
3rd - Shane Vereen, RB, Cal - Excellent all around back. This guy's gonna be a player.
3rd - Davon House, CB, New Mex State - You're going to see a trend here. Excellent size, fast, athletic, productive. Good player.
4th - Greg Salas, WR, Hawaii - Excellent size, very athletic, productive.
4th - Chris Carter, OLB, Fresno - Excellent size, very athletic, extremely productive.
7th - Shaky Smithson, WR, Utah - Dynamic returner
1. I look at guys who are very good athletes. Everyone talks about the slower players who are great in the NFL, well a lot of those "slower players" have crazy burst off the line (Clay Matthews for example has a so/so 40 with an insane 10 yard split). So I only really deal with guys who are good athletes, and most of them are excellent athletes. That does not mean fast 40. That means functionally athletic for their position and there are drills for that.
2. I look at production. Coaches vote for All conference is a huge one. I read through a lot of draft mumbo jumbo, and as I get my list of guys, I start crossing them off if I can't find enough relevant, positive comments from people who know (coaches primarily). I take a big dump on any media created information. I only take info from the horses mouth.
3. Bob McGinn's draft piece. I don't necessarily believe everything in it. GM's with star RB's, I'll believe their info on RB's because they don't want them. Some of the other stuff, I sort of take with a grain of salt. I ask, "does this person have motivation to mislead" and if the answer is, "yes", I don't really take it as anything I can trust. But at the end of the day, the only media draft ranking I put any weight in is McGinn's. He's profoundly right on things other draft publications consistently fail at. The reason, I think, is because he has a ton of sources and he has enough of them to get good info on just about every position.
So at the end of the day, here's a mock draft. I'll have a list of guys I think are really good in this draft some time later this week.
1st TRADE: Pick 32 for 2nd and 4th (40 and 104)
2nd TRADE: Pick 104 and our 4th for pick 86 in the 3rd round
3rd TRADE: 5th, 6th, 7th for a late 4th
We end up with:
2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, comp 4th, comp 7th
2nd - JAMES CARPENTER, OT, Alabama - This guy rocks. Excellent athlete, excellent player, excellent pick.
2nd - Allen Bailey, DE, The U - Awesome Sr season. Big, strong, fast, and productive.
3rd - Shane Vereen, RB, Cal - Excellent all around back. This guy's gonna be a player.
3rd - Davon House, CB, New Mex State - You're going to see a trend here. Excellent size, fast, athletic, productive. Good player.
4th - Greg Salas, WR, Hawaii - Excellent size, very athletic, productive.
4th - Chris Carter, OLB, Fresno - Excellent size, very athletic, extremely productive.
7th - Shaky Smithson, WR, Utah - Dynamic returner
You've investigated these guys down to their condom size, JH!! The least you can do is give the potential trading teams the scraps of your attention!!
Comment