Rate the 2008 draft

[Tony Oday]

This would be the year to trade him to be honest. Fourth year guy ala Matt Shaub to the Texans...I think we could get similar compensation.

[Tony Oday]

http://www.packers.com/team/howbuilt.html

Just to see how we are built.

[Brandon494]

So far, this draft has netted just one reliable starter, Sitton, a high potential starter who is more promise than performance due to frequent injuries (Finley); a good third receiver, a backup QB that might bring a low draft choice as FA compensation, and a lingering question in Lee.

So far, that's a "C" with potential extra credit to be submitted this season to raise it to a "B".

You can talk all you want about Finley's potential, which I will not argue with, but the fact is he has just 82 career receptions after three years. So far, that's not huge contribution. If TT pulls the trigger and trades Flynn for a fourth or higher this year, that's a plus for the draft; but if Flynn leaves as a FA and the Packers get just a 6th or 7th, it doesn't count much.

There has not been huge production from this draft yet, but there are still possibilities.

Only a C? You do understand we didnt even have a 1st round draft pick right?

Sitton is more than just a reliable starter, he is a top 5 RG in the league. I know your a stats guy and all but even Stevie Wonder can see that Finley is a top 5 TE in the league. He missed 3 games in 09 then had a freak injury trying to make a tackle last season. I dont really see that as him being injury phone and just more as bad luck. Jordy is a reliable #3 reciever on a loaded recieving core and Fylnn is considered one of the best young backup QBs in the league, although he is no where near as good as Shaub. So we hit on 4 out of 9 without having a 1st round draft pick. To me to be able to get two pro bowl caliber players without having a #1 pick is pretty damn good and I'd give this class a B+.

[Patler]

Only a C? You do understand we didnt even have a 1st round draft pick right?

Sitton is more than just a reliable starter, he is a top 5 RG in the league. I know your a stats guy and all but even Stevie Wonder can see that Finley is a top 5 TE in the league. He missed 3 games in 09 then had a freak injury trying to make a tackle last season. I dont really see that as him being injury phone and just more as bad luck. Jordy is a reliable #3 reciever on a loaded recieving core and Fylnn is considered one of the best young backup QBs in the league, although he is no where near as good as Shaub. So we hit on 4 out of 9 without having a 1st round draft pick. To me to be able to get two pro bowl caliber players without having a #1 pick is pretty damn good and I'd give this class a B+.

They had no 1st because TT decided to trade it. His choice to increase quantity while lowering position. He doesn't get lower expectations because of that.

It doesn't matter where they are picked, the draft should be evaluated based on the performance of the players. After three years, that should be actual performance, not some potential they have, or what they might do if they stay healthy. If they aren't starters by now, most won't ever be anything more than an average starter at best, unless they are at a position of unusual depth, or someone like Rodgers behind a HOFer.

As for Sitton, I meant "reliable" as dependable to be there week in and week out. Didn't mean it as quality of play. Sorry if I wasn't clear. I readily admit he is one of the better guards in the league.

Freak injury for Finley? I don't know, that's how many major injuries occur, you get hit while in a compromised position. The big question now is, will there be any lasting effects from it, and from the second surgery that was needed to clean out the infection? Might it alter his career? It wouldn't be the first time. Two years as a starter, injuries each year to take games away. Missing three games in 2009 is not a minor thing either. It could be the start of a pattern, or maybe not.

Until Finley plays more than just a handful of games as one of the best in the league, he is really just potential. His 13 games in 2009 don't make a career. Until someone else besides Sitton becomes an actual starter performing with consistency week after week, Sitton is the only illuminated bright light from the draft. The rest are flickering.

[Guiness]

I'm not as harsh as Patler, I think a B to B+. The draft really makes or breaks on Finley. Don't let draft pedigree colour your perception. If we'd taken Sitton or Finley as our first rounder we'd be calling the draft a great success!

Sure you'd like every player you draft to be a starter, but the fact that 6 of the 9 players are still with the team is great. I'd say there were 2-3 starters in this draft. If we go to camp this fall, Sitton and Finley are starters, and it's not an invalid argument that the 3rd WR is a starter.

On top of that, I know we haven't gotten a lot out of Lee until now, but his SB performance was good, and bodes well. In Swain we got a player that lasts 4-5 years and contributes on ST - out of a 7th rounder, it's hard to complain about that! Flynn has provided important depth and fills a critical spot...also out of a 7th rounder.

If we didn't consider draft location, would we be happier with it? If Flynn was a 2nd round choice, and our 7th rounder didn't pan out?

[Guiness]

http://www.packers.com/team/howbuilt.html

Just to see how we are built.

I don't agree with some of the classification on that list. To say our team is made up of 31 FA's is misleading. When I hear FA I think of a guy who played in the league, and was picked up after being released or playing out his contract, not guys you got as UDFA's. That has a lot more to do with scouting and identifying college talent. Jenkins, Tramon, Zombo, Shields and many more fit into that category.

Without looking to far into the history of a lot of the players (pretty much everyone we picked up this year!) I'd say we have 10 or so players we got from Free Agency.

[Tony Oday]

Just because they werent multi million dollar busts does not make them NOT free agents.

[BobDobbs]

For those that think that C is too harsh a grade think about all the guys that suck from this draft. It's OK that Giacomini sucks and maybe Thompson, you miss a couple. But Lee and Brohm were both second round picks, they suck. Over the years we've gotten Jennings, Collins, Mike Neal, and Brandon Jackson out of the second round. That year we had three picks and basically ended up with Jordy Nelson. Very Bad performance. The amount of guys we got nothing from in this draft is really high.

If you give this draft an A what are you going to give 2009? You're going to need a new alphabet.

Realistically though, they did hit on Finley. He need to produce to bring the grade up, but if this draft is redone today he goes WAY higher even if teams know he's going to miss a season to injury. Flynn also helps to save the QB pick, lucky or good I don't know. In all honesty I give an incomplete because Finley is so important to the fate of this draft. It's a B- with a chance to raise to a B if Finley can actually stay healthy and dominate.

[Patler]

I'm not as harsh as Patler, I think a B to B+. The draft really makes or breaks on Finley. Don't let draft pedigree colour your perception. If we'd taken Sitton or Finley as our first rounder we'd be calling the draft a great success!

Sure you'd like every player you draft to be a starter, but the fact that 6 of the 9 players are still with the team is great. I'd say there were 2-3 starters in this draft. If we go to camp this fall, Sitton and Finley are starters, and it's not an invalid argument that the 3rd WR is a starter.

On top of that, I know we haven't gotten a lot out of Lee until now, but his SB performance was good, and bodes well. In Swain we got a player that lasts 4-5 years and contributes on ST - out of a 7th rounder, it's hard to complain about that! Flynn has provided important depth and fills a critical spot...also out of a 7th rounder.

If we didn't consider draft location, would we be happier with it? If Flynn was a 2nd round choice, and our 7th rounder didn't pan out?

I think we are in about the same place. I did say that extra credit this year could move it to a "B". If Nelson and Finley continue as hoped, Lee contributes, etc. I think it becomes a solid "B", but that isn't certain.

The make up of the NFL today is such that very seldom do the top four or 5 round picks not hang around for at least about 3 years. So this becomes a make-or-break year for guys like Lee and Swain. If both are released this year in favor of the new guys; Finley is in and out due to his knee, or is hurt again; and Flynn sticks around through the season, leaves as a FA and the Packers get a 5th or 6th round pick; is this draft anything more than a "C"?

When a team relies on the draft as much as the Packers, an average year has to bring in 2-3 who become starters. That makes it a "C" in my book. If the starters are better than average starters, and/or you have more than three who become starters, and/or you also have a a few key reserves or role-players from the draft, it becomes a "B". If it includes players who become pro-bowl players or are otherwise truly special players, it becomes an "A".

[Lurker64]

Patler, you've talked me down to a B, I'm willing to move it to a B+ with good years from Finley and Nelson.

I've actually believed for a while now that "it takes three years to grade a draft" is insufficiently conservative. I think four is a better measure, for precisely the reason that you're outlying. So we can now go back and grade the 2007 draft, which I believe has earned a "blech".

[Patler]

For those that think that C is too harsh a grade think about all the guys that suck from this draft. It's OK that Giacomini sucks and maybe Thompson, you miss a couple. But Lee and Brohm were both second round picks, they suck. Over the years we've gotten Jennings, Collins, Mike Neal, and Brandon Jackson out of the second round. That year we had three picks and basically ended up with Jordy Nelson. Very Bad performance. The amount of guys we got nothing from in this draft is really high.

If you give this draft an A what are you going to give 2009? You're going to need a new alphabet.

Realistically though, they did hit on Finley. He need to produce to bring the grade up, but if this draft is redone today he goes WAY higher even if teams know he's going to miss a season to injury. Flynn also helps to save the QB pick, lucky or good I don't know. In all honesty I give an incomplete because Finley is so important to the fate of this draft. It's a B- with a chance to raise to a B if Finley can actually stay healthy and dominate.

You said it better than I did, especially the "incomplete" due to Finley.

[RashanGary]

I'd like you to find someone who had an A draft, Patler. Your scale seems a little tough.

[Patler]

Patler, you've talked me down to a B, I'm willing to move it to a B+ with good years from Finley and Nelson.

I've actually believed for a while now that "it takes three years to grade a draft" is insufficiently conservative. I think four is a better measure, for precisely the reason that you're outlying. So we can now go back and grade the 2007 draft, which I believe has earned a "blech".

With the standard 4 year contract and free agency (pre-2010), the best evaluator of a draft might be to look at how many the team really tries to sign to a second contract. From 2007, it might be just Bishop and Crosby.

[Lurker64]

I'd like you to find someone who had an A draft, Patler. Your scale seems a little tough.

Assuming that TJ Lang starts at LG this year and plays well, 2009 looks like an 'A'.

With the standard 4 year contract and free agency (pre-2010), the best evaluator of a draft might be to look at how many the team really tries to sign to a second contract. From 2007, it might be just Bishop and Crosby.

I think this is a good method, but it takes significantly more work than "eyeballing it" such that only people who follow a team are really well positioned to grade a draft, but that might the case anyway.

[Patler]

I'd like you to find someone who had an A draft, Patler. Your scale seems a little tough.

I don't know other teams rosters well enough to do that.

If you are content with just 1 or 2 starters from a draft, where are the other starters supposed to come from? You need 22 starters + 3 specialists, and some want to consider the the third WR and the third CB as well. That's fine. However, you have to turn your starting roster over in about 10 years. 27 players every 10 years, 2-3 per year would be what you have to do on average. Average = "C". (I grade tough, there aren't a lot of "A"s in my classes!)

As I said, if Finley actually plays to the level expected and Nelson stays, this gives them their 3 for a "C" which can get upped to a "B" for quality performances by Sitton and Finley. But as of right now? What has Finley actually accomplished? He has given us a taste of his potential, but that is about it.