Future looks bright

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

There has been a lot of talk about how the packers might be the next dynasty in football. So I went to look at the contracts of most of the players on the team and most of them are already locked up for many years. Contracts that are expiring soon and that need to be re-done will probably coincide with a lot of older higher paid vets leaving around the same time. The way it’s shaping up is that we probably won’t lose a significant YOUNG player for money reasons for at least another 4-5 years. Lets look at the whole team.

I left out players I assumed we be losing in free agency this offseason.

http://rotoworld.com/teams/contracts/nfl/gb/green-bay-packers?rw=1

Safety:

Collins: 3 years remaining
Burnett: 3 years remaining
Peprah: 2 years remaining
Bush: 1 year remaining

Corners:

Woodson: 4 years remaining
Williams: 4 years remaining
House: Probably will sign 4 year deal
Shields: 2 years remaining and then restricted, so essentially 3 years remaining
Lee: 1 year remaining

MLB:

Hawk: 5 years remaining
Bishop: 4 years remaining
Williams: Probably will sign 4 year deal
Chillar: 3 years remaining
Barnett: 2 years remaining


OLB:

Elmore: Probably will sign 4 year deal
Matthews: 3 years remaining (probably needs to be redone in 2 or less though)
Zombo: 2 years remaining and then restricted, so essentially 3 years remaining
Jones: 2 years remaining
Poppinga: 2 years remaining
Walden: 1 year remaining

NT:

Raji: 3 years remaining (probably needs to be redone in 2 or less though)
Green: 1 year remaining

DE:

Guy: Probably will sign 4 year deal
Pickett: 3 years remaining
Neal: 3 years remaining
Wilson: 3 years remaining
Wynn: 3 years remaining
Harrell: 2 years remaining


OT:

Sherrod: Probably will sign 5 year deal
Bulaga: 4 years remaining
Newhouse: 3 years remaining
Clifton: 2 years remaining
Tauscher: 1 year remaining

G:

Caleb: Probably will sign 4 year deal
Lang: 2 years remaining
Sitton: 1 year remaining


C:

McDonald: 2 years remaining and then restricted, so essentially 3 years remaining
Wells: 1 year remaining


TE:


Williams: Probably will sign 4 year deal
Quarless: 3 years remaining
Crabtree: 2 years remaining and then restricted, so essentially 3 years remaining
Finley: 1 year remaining


WR:

Cobb: Probably will sign 4 year deal
Jennings: 2 years remaining
Driver: 2 years remaining
Nelson: 1 year remaining

FB:

Taylor: Probably will sign 4 year deal
Kuhn: Assuming we re-sign cheap
Johnson: 2 years remaining

RB:

Green: Probably will sign 4 year deal
Starks: 3 years remaining
Grant: 1 year remaining

QB:

Rodgers: 4 years remaining (probably needs to be redone in 3 or less though)
Flynn: 1 year remaining


K:

Crosby: assuming we resign cheap


P:

Masthay: 2 years remaining and then restricted, so essentially 3 years remaining


LS:

Goode: 2 years remaining


Players I think that are important to re-sign with one year left:

Finley
Sitton
Nelson

Players I think that are important to re-sign with two years left:

Jennnigs
Shields
Lang (depends on play)
Masthay
Goode
Maybe a couple other young guys if they prove themselves, i.e., Zombo, Jones, Mcdonald, etc.

Players I think that are important to re-sign with three years left or need to be re-signed around this time:

Collins
Burnett (depends on play)
Raji
Matthews
Neal (depends on play)

Throw in Rodgers around this time as well.


Now look at the money we probably will be getting during that same time frame from players who are not that young, making a lot of money, and probably won’t need to be re-signed once therir contracts are up:

Grant - will be 29 when contract expires.
Clifton - will be 36 when contract expires.
Tauscher - will be 34 when contract expires.
Driver - will be 38 when contract expires.
Poppinga - will be 33 when contract expires.
Chillar - will be 31 when contract expires
Barnett - will be 31 when contract expires.
Pickett - will be 34 when contract expiries
Woodson (if he retires) - already 34
Harrell

Looks to me that once we need money for our young up and coming players, it will be available simply by older players past their prime being let go. Many of whom are not even starters. If TT follows up with another 2-3 drafts that include a couple gems like Raji, Matthews, Jennings, etc. and I could really see us winning another 2-3 supebowls in the next 5+ years if everyone stays heathly.

Thoughts?

[RashanGary]

Fuckin-A


And there are going to be some stars that emerge from the last years draft and this years draft. Even if we loose a star or two, we're replenishing them but younger and cheaper. Who knows when this ride will end, what we do know is we're on it now.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Fuckin-A


And there are going to be some stars that emerge from the last years draft and this years draft. Even if we loose a star or two, we're replenishing them but younger and cheaper. Who knows when this ride will end, what we do know is we're on it now.

Yep and if you add up the money we probably will be getting from the ten or so old players I listed its probably around 30 million. Now consider the fact the players like Rodgers, Jennings, Collins, and Raji, are already making a good amount of money and thus re-signing them probably won't take a big chuck of additional cap space and all of a sudden that re-signing list looks even smaller. I think the key to winning multiple superbowls in the coming years simply comes down to TT continuing to draft well. Real exciting to think about.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Couple more thoughts:

At rb:

Assuming Grant leaves after this season, I have full confidence in Starks starting for two years after that (the last two years of his contract). At which time he will be 28 himself and may not get a second contract. I would assume we draft a 21-22 yo replacement. Basically what I'm saying is I don't see us spending big bucks on the running back position for 5+ years. Starks finishing out his rookie contract and then another rookie taking over?


At OLB:

The more I think about it, the more "okay" I am that we are going with guys like Jones, Zombo, Elmore and Walden opposite Clay Matthews for a couple more years. Imagine if we drafted an OLB last season with our number pick and he turned out to be a probowler. You would have to re-sign Matthews and him to 60+ million dollar contracts around the same time. If we wait another year or two a find a stud opposite Matthews and let Jones, Zombo, Walden, and Elmore hold it down for a couple years, by then Matthews will just have signed his big contract and the other guy will be early in his rookie contract. Doubt TT is thinking this way, but I would love if it plays out that way since this is where we are now anyways.

[Bretsky]

DAM....are we really stuck with Justine Harrell for two more years..........lol

IF we could just find a way to bring Jenkins back.....

We are set up nicely for a while

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

DAM....are we really stuck with Justine Harrell for two more years..........lol

IF we could just find a way to bring Jenkins back.....

We are set up nicely for a while

Jenkins would really be nice to have back, but a lot of that I think depends on the numbers. Would keeping Jenkins mean losing one of the young guys in a year or two? That would depend on the cap. Sure seems like the team is fine moving on without him.

If we keep Barnett, do we go with a 2-5-4 look in the base defense. I'm sure Capers could find packages that have Raji and Green one the line and Matthews, Hawk, Bishop, Barnett, and Zombo lining up all over the field lol.

[vince]

OT:

Sherrod: Probably will sign 5 year deal
Bulaga: 4 years remaining
Newhouse: 3 years remaining
Clifton: 2 years remaining
Tauscher: 1 year remaining

G:

Caleb: Probably will sign 4 year deal
Lang: 2 years remaining
Sitton: 1 year remaining


C:

McDonald: 2 years remaining and then restricted, so essentially 3 years remaining
Wells: 1 year remaining

Not to be a downer on a very encouraging thread, but this jumped out at me in looking at those contracts. Take out those players in red, who all at this point have only a year left on their deal or in the tank in the likely case of Cliffy, and there's a serious need for depth all along the oline. Sitton is a major piece and will not be cheap. Wells is getting up there in age, but there's no depth there either.

[Guiness]

Couple more thoughts:

At rb:

Assuming Grant leaves after this season, I have full confidence in Starks starting for two years after that (the last two years of his contract). At which time he will be 28 himself and may not get a second contract. I would assume we draft a 21-22 yo replacement. Basically what I'm saying is I don't see us spending big bucks on the running back position for 5+ years. Starks finishing out his rookie contract and then another rookie taking over?

Damn, Starks is 25 at the end of his rookie year? I wonder what happened there? I guess he wasn't going to be a first day choice and finished his degree. You're right, he might not see that lucrative second contract.

His bio at Packers.com said he played 3 years at Buffalo, plus his senior season which he didn't play. Working backwards, he was 20 when he started college. He has an early birthday (February) so might have started school a year late, and must have lost another year in there somewhere.

I saw an article calling for a drop-off from his next year...of course, it is Bleacher Report, so is essentially worthless.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/623453-james-starks-and-10-nfl-players-headed-for-sophomore-slumps/page/2

How come Bleacher Report has such a high damn ranking on Google? Everytime I search for something sports related, I get one or two hits from there, instead of Sportsline or some other reasonable source. I'd rather hits from PFT than BR.

[Tarlam!]

It's an unquestionably a great contract situation that has been crafted. But Vince is absolutely right pointing out the OL depth. And, sorry to piss on the parade, but if anything should happen to Rodgers, the contract situation means diddly squat.

We Packer fans have had 3 QBs start in the last near on 2 decades. I don't know what the NFL average is for all teams, but take away the Packers' stat, that number rises again. The point being, how long will this luck last?

I'm glad to see TT is drafting to protect him.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Not to be a downer on a very encouraging thread, but this jumped out at me in looking at those contracts. Take out those players in red, who all at this point have only a year left on their deal or in the tank in the likely case of Cliffy, and there's a serious need for depth all along the oline. Sitton is a major piece and will not be cheap. Wells is getting up there in age, but there's no depth there either.

The way I look at it is hopefully we have the two tackles for the future already on the roster in Bulaga and Sherrod. Both guys signed 5 year deals and should be cheap for a while. The point of this thread was to point out that who ever the team wants to re-sign shouldn't be much of a problem. So basically I don't see Sitton going anywhere regardless the price. Clifton/Tauscher leaving only frees up money that basically goes to Sitton on the o-line. While we have Clifton/Tauscher both on the team they are a lxury b/c they let us bring Sherrod and Bulaga along slowly. So out of the three starters of the future in Sitton, Bulaga, and Sherrod, only Sitton probably will be making a lot of money in the next 4/5 years. Very similar to what we have set up currently with Clifton the only one making a large amount of money.

That leaves Colledge and Wells. Colledge to me is the definition of a servable starter. He's as good as he's going to get. He's not a guy that I would spend money for a second contract on, which means his replacement is probably Lang or a guy in the draft next year. If we draft someone to replace him next year he comes with a cheap 4/5 year deal.


As for Wells, the guy is a good player, but he is already 30 years old. His frame is not going to help as he gets deeper in his 30's either. Is this a guy the team invests in? I really don't know. If they do I don't think he will "break the bank." If they move on without him that would not be a surprise either b/c TT has been running the show like that for the last 6 years.
If Sherrod and Bulaga turn out, we really just need another guy or two through the draft to built a very strong young o-line.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

I don’t think we are lacking depth either. Look at tackle for example. We have:
Clifton
Tauscher
Sherrod
Bulaga
Newhouse
Lang (T/G)

When Clifton and Tauscher leave, Sherrod and Bulaga take over starters. Lang can play tackle if needed and Newhouse is only entering year two and hopefully gets better. That’s four young guys at tackle behind the two aging vets. What team can say they have that type of depth?

We have Wells at center and McDonald backing him up. The team seemed too really like him or else I don’t think they would have kept him on the roster all year with all those injuries. Is he the replacement to Wells? If he is that would mean we have 4 out of 5 starters for the future on the roster.

If Colledge leaves this year we would need to add talent at guard moving forward. Obvious we need to continue to draft well to maintain excellence or the run won’t last. We did add some depth in Caleb this year though, plus we haven't seen what UDFA's we bring in.

Future online?

Sherrod -------- Mcdonald Sitton Bulaga
Lang -------- ------------- Caleb Newhouse

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Damn, Starks is 25 at the end of his rookie year? I wonder what happened there? I guess he wasn't going to be a first day choice and finished his degree. You're right, he might not see that lucrative second contract.

His bio at Packers.com said he played 3 years at Buffalo, plus his senior season which he didn't play. Working backwards, he was 20 when he started college. He has an early birthday (February) so might have started school a year late, and must have lost another year in there somewhere.

I saw an article calling for a drop-off from his next year...of course, it is Bleacher Report, so is essentially worthless.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/623453-james-starks-and-10-nfl-players-headed-for-sophomore-slumps/page/2

How come Bleacher Report has such a high damn ranking on Google? Everytime I search for something sports related, I get one or two hits from there, instead of Sportsline or some other reasonable source. I'd rather hits from PFT than BR.

Yeah he was a 24 yo rookie last year. I would put him and Grant neck and nack going into camp. I am fine moving forward with him, just wish he was a little younger.

[vince]

Good point about Sitton and the vet contracts MD. I agree that he can be re-signed and is likely to stay.

Sherrod -------- Mcdonald Sitton Bulaga
Lang -------- ------------- Caleb Newhouse

Regarding depth though, I can't say much about Schladeraff at this point, but I have seen enough of Newhouse to say that I think he needs more developing and is anything but established. I'm not sure that he's anything more than Giacomini. So far, what I've seen is soft and slow - a bad combination. I like Lang and McDonald. Lang's a brawler as is McDonald who also has great feet. Hopefully, all of the young guys will pan out, but that's probably optimistic to think that'll happen. Even if it does occur, there are at least 2 spots that remain unfilled for the future at this point.

[Patler]

O-line depth is always a concern because to be two-deep you need 10, and no team ever has that many with proven capability. What you really hope for is capable starters and 2 or 3 reserves. Assuming you have good starters, among the overall group, one has to be capable as a backup LT and one at center. These can come from your starters at other positions, so long as your 7 or 8 deep roster is solid. If you have 7 or 8 decent players, the backup guard and RT spots are covered almost by default.

Lang played pretty well at LT two years ago when pressed into service. I'm not overly concerned with last season, because he missed all of the off-season conditioning and was limited in TC. I think he will bounce back. Not having organized off-season this year is unfortunate, but the problem last year (per several articles) seemed to be that his wrist surgery prevented him from maintaining his upper body conditioning, and it was difficult to regain it during the season. Hopefully he has worked on that this summer.

With Bulaga, Sherrod and Lang I think they are covered for a backup at LT. Last year they reported that Newhouse "had left-tackle feet" and that it might be his best position in the long run. He's sort of a wild-card, having his own back problems.

The backup at center could be McDonald. They also still have Dietrich-Smith who seems to hang around pretty strongly. I'm not sure that Spitz is out of the mix yet either. Another year post-surgery could make a real difference, and he might have to sign a vet-minimum type contract for a year to reprove himself. Nothing certain about the backups here, but they have enough options with promise that I'm not too worried about them finding one. As a fall-back, often there seems to be some journey-men centers available at the end of TC, some with a fair amount of starting experience. I think they will be covered at backup center.

If backup LT and backup center are covered, do you have eight good o-linemen for the game day roster? I think so, with or without Colledge and Tauscher. Lets take the worst case scenario, without Tauscher and without Colledge:

Clifton, Wells, Sitton, Bulaga as starters, with one of Lang or McDonald as the other starter. With no off-season camps, it might be difficult for any of the rookies to jump in at the start of the season. The reserves will be the other of Lang or McDonald, Sherrod and one other. There will be two more on the 53 man roster. Basically, the last three spots will be filled from

Shlauderaff
Dietrich-Smith
Newhouse
Battles
Spitz
Campbell
Tauscher
A likely UDFA that will be signed.

Every year brings changes to the 9 or 10 deep roster of the O-line. They seem to have the game day eight covered for 2011 with or without Colledge and Tauscher. As for 2012 and beyond; with Bulaga, Sherrod, Lang and Newhouse they seem to have the tackles covered. Any of those four seem to also be options at guard, along with McDonald and Sclauderaff even if Sitton were to leave. All but Bulaga are unproven, but with Sitton included you have two solid starters and 5 promising young players for the 4 starting spots. By 2012 there will probably one or two new faces in the mix.

Depth on the O-line looks better than it has any year since TT came.

[Bretsky]

we need to lock Sitton down; it sounds like one major debate between the owners and players is owners would like to name 3 players whose offers they can match. Sitton is that guy. This NFL labor thing still might take a while. I'm thinking we lose 2 preseason games