Packers Sign Jones

[Deputy Nutz]

I think you might be a bit on the low side. Kid looks good so far.

Ok, he is either going to get the catches as the reserve tight end or Quarles is. But the Packers are not going to have 3 tight ends catch double digit passes.

[Deputy Nutz]

I am a huge Driver fan, I still think he is going to make an impact this season but it is obvious that the two main receiving threats on this team are Finnley and Jennings and everyone else, no matter how good they are, are just going to be role players or players that will get passes their way because of match ups. If Driver has a favorable matchup and he is taking advantage of it Rodger will get him the football and Driver will have a big day.

With so many weapons, this team will face single coverage on almost every receiver the offense will succeed only if the line can give protection, and if McCarthy can commit to the run even though he has 6 guys that you can throw the ball to.

[3irty1]

This signing is big for the Packers IMO. You can never have too many WR and this makes the corps as injury proof as any ever.

Despite JJ's infuriating drops in big moments he still might have the most natural hands on the team next to Finley. If he can get his concentration honed in he can become anquan boldin for us. He's a good route runner, brilliant after the catch for his size, and has enough all around talent to take over a game. To respond to Havey, I do think he's better than Jordy. The only area I really think Jordy is better is in his sneaky long speed--he's a decent deep threat. James Jones is 6'1" and plays like he is 6'4". Jordy is 6'3" and plays more like 5'11".

I don't think this will affect whether or not we sign Jermichael Finley or not. When you are blessed enough to find Jermichael Finley in the 3rd round, you don't merely let him walk away. Finley is Ted's Sistine Chapel.

Regarding Driver, his career in GB is winding down for sure but I expect him to resume his role as slot WR extraordinaire in which he'll be good for at least one WOW moment like in the 49ers game last year. DD still has it without question IMO although I think he'll be mostly limited to that slot roll.

[pbmax]

Am I the only one that doesn't think Driver is going to drop off the planet this year? Last year prior to getting his season long nagging injury (which ironically happened shortly after Finley was lost for the season), Driver was the #1 WR in terms of catches, and people had wondered greatly where Jennings has dissappeared to. Do you guys all forget that? In fact, up to the time of Finley's injury, Driver was tied with Finley for the team lead in catchs (35 or whatever), while Finley had slightly more yards.

Driver clearly was getting open and making his presence felt on the field, while Jennings fell into the background with Finley here. It was pretty much the exact opposite of what we thought would happen with Finley on the field, as most thought Driver would fall off and Jennings would be fine.

To me, this showed me that a healthy Driver (and healthy is really the key issue) is still likely almost as good as he ever was. He is a great route runner and just knows how to get open, and is still deceptively fast which helps him create that seperation. Sure, Driver still has 3 or so drops a year that just baffle you, but he makes enough tough catches in traffic usually to forgive him for it. I am also a realist - I know Driver is getting up there in age, but really I think he has a couple seasons of pretty good production left barring injury.

He's not a guy like Moss who, in getting "super fit this offseason", essentially admitted in doing so that he got lazy and wasn't in the shape he needed to be last season, and maybe the season before. Assuming he is healthy, Driver has always stayed in prestine shape. He wants to play till he is 40, and barring a big injury he likely will. He may not do it as a packer, but I see him playing out that contract through age 38.

I like this signing of course, Can never have too many weapons, and we all saw having depth his huge for injuiry reasons. I just don't see a healthy driver falling behind any other WR in terms of catches. He simply still a better WR than Jones or Nelson, and who knows when those two will pass a healthy driver. I just saw too much good from Driver last year when he was healthy to write him off.

There is a difference between targets and drop off. Rodgers could continue to target Driver as he did early last season, but Driver didn't survive that use. Jennings did not suddenly get worse at the beginning of 2010. He was targeted less. But he survived and thrived as the main target.

And while his injury might have been a fluke compared to his career, it is getting more likely to happen than less.

[Patler]

There is a difference between targets and drop off. Rodgers could continue to target Driver as he did early last season, but Driver didn't survive that use. Jennings did not suddenly get worse at the beginning of 2010. He was targeted less. But he survived and thrived as the main target.

And while his injury might have been a fluke compared to his career, it is getting more likely to happen than less.

When healthy and on the field, I expect Driver to still perform well this season. But I expect injuries might be the norm from here on out for him. He has always taken a lot of hits, and usually bounced right back up. But age changes you, even if your name is Donald Driver. If Driver plays the way he always has, and the Packers use him the way they normally do; I expect Driver to miss time again this season as his body shows the combined effects of age and the accumulated hits he has taken over the years.

[ThunderDan]

From another thread here is my analysis of the WRs:

With my "unoffical" stats method we have:

Jennings - 79 attempts, 3 drops, 2 fumbles - 6.3% failure rate
Driver - 58 attempts, 7 drops, 1 fumble - 13.8% failure rate
Nelson - 55 attempts, 10 drops, 3 fumbles - 23.6% failure rate
Jones - 60 attempts, 10 drops, 3 fumbles - 21.7% failure rate

That pretty much proves to me why Jones and Nelson are fighting for the 3rd WR spot.

And another note:

Driver - 698 career catches - 8 career fumbles - 1.15%
Jennings - 322 cc - 5 cf - 1.55%
Jones - 149 cc - 6 cf - 4.03%
Nelson - 100 cc - 6 cf - 6.00%

Way too much ball on the turf for Jones and Nelson to be serious #1 or 2 WRs in the NFL.


I will need to see the amount spent for JJ to be able to evaluate if this was a good signing for the Pack.

[pbmax]

From another thread here is my analysis of the WRs:

With my "unoffical" stats method we have:

Jennings - 79 attempts, 3 drops, 2 fumbles - 6.3% failure rate
Driver - 58 attempts, 7 drops, 1 fumble - 13.8% failure rate
Nelson - 55 attempts, 10 drops, 3 fumbles - 23.6% failure rate
Jones - 60 attempts, 10 drops, 3 fumbles - 21.7% failure rate

That pretty much proves to me why Jones and Nelson are fighting for the 3rd WR spot.

Football Outsiders has Jennings with 125 passes thrown to him, Driver 84, Jones 87 and Nelson with 64.

[ThunderDan]

Football Outsiders has Jennings with 125 passes thrown to him, Driver 84, Jones 87 and Nelson with 64.

That's targeted throws. I use total catches plus total drops = total attempts A ball thrown to Jennings 5 feet over his head shouldn't count for or against his performance.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I'd like to see them list out each drop, so I can judge them. There are easy drops, easy drops that would have gone for a TD, drops that aren't easy but makeable, there are tough drops but a player gets a hand on the ball. It's just so subjective. Targets aren't subjective, but of course it's hard to judge a receiver just based on that also. Maybe one guy had more targets but more bad throws to him. I think it evens out though and Rodgers is pretty damn accurate, so I think catches/targets ratio and yards/targets ratio is a pretty good way of judging everything (how much they get open, how good are there hands, how well do they do after the catch, etc.) about a WR. However, it's not like baseball where you can use stats and get a really good feel for just how good a player is. My eyes tell me that Jennings is a stud. Underrated, in fact. Finley is a stud. Driver (at this point), Nelson, and Jones are solid but each have their warts at this point.

[Patler]

That's targeted throws. I use total catches plus total drops = total attempts A ball thrown to Jennings 5 feet over his head shouldn't count for or against his performance.

That's not a bad way to look at it for what we are concerned with as fans. Did he catch what he should have caught? Did he fumble it afterwards? A targeted throw that is neither a completion nor a drop would seem to be the receivers fault only if he broke the wrong way, stopped when he should have gone, gone when he should have stopped, etc. We, as fans, are not really able to judge those things very well.

[pbmax]

That's targeted throws. I use total catches plus total drops = total attempts A ball thrown to Jennings 5 feet over his head shouldn't count for or against his performance.

Yes, I know. I think the targeted number shows that Nelson struggled for a large part of the season. If not for Jones drops (and one glaring fumble) in key situations, no one would be questioning who was the number 3 receiver by the end of the year.

But then Nelson had a monster post-season, even though it contained more drops.

[pbmax]

That's not a bad way to look at it for what we are concerned with as fans. Did he catch what he should have caught? Did he fumble it afterwards? A targeted throw that is neither a completion nor a drop would seem to be the receivers fault only if he broke the wrong way, stopped when he should have gone, gone when he should have stopped, etc. We, as fans, are not really able to judge those things very well.

While certainly imperfect, it also can tell you the success rate of throwing to a certain receiver. When a number stands out, then you can go back and decide if the QB is forcing throws (or can't throw those routes) or if the receiver simply doesn't get to what he should get to.

Its not clean, but you need some sense of whether a receiver gets to what is thrown to him. Otherwise alligator armed receivers always look best.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Yes, I know. I think the targeted number shows that Nelson struggled for a large part of the season. If not for Jones drops (and one glaring fumble) in key situations, no one would be questioning who was the number 3 receiver by the end of the year.

But then Nelson had a monster post-season, even though it contained more drops.

I hate to keep arguing Jones vs. Nelson because I think they are both solid but not great, but the numbers don't indicate that Jones was more effective, but the glaring drops unfairly knocked his performace down. In fact, I'd argue the opposite is true.

According to JSO:

Jennings 159 targets, 6 drops, 97 receptions, 1568 yards, 61% catch/target ratio, 9.9 yards/target ratio
Jones 101 targets, 10 drops, 61 receptions, 823 yards, 60% catch/target ratio, 8.1 yards/target ratio
Driver 101 targets, 7 drops, 65 receptions, 734 yards, 64% catch/target ratio, 7.3 yards/target ratio
Nelson 92 targets, 10 drops, 66 receptions, 868 yards, 72% catch/target ratio, 9.4 yards/target ratio

It seems to me that Nelson was the second most productive WR, but the drops tarnished his year. Now, when I look at the numbers, a few things stand out.

1) Jennings is the deep ball threat, so it's natural that his catch ratio isn't great but his yards ratio is. Also, he's the only guy that got considerable double teams.
2) Driver is almost exclusively a possession receiver at this point in his career.
3) I would think that Nelson and Jones run a lot of similar routes and get similar attention. They are kind of mixed and matched as the 3rd/4th receivers--with Jennings almost always an outside guy and Driver a slot guy.

However, if Jones had not dropped a couple of those possible long TDs, his stats would be more impressive.

[Patler]

While certainly imperfect, it also can tell you the success rate of throwing to a certain receiver. When a number stands out, then you can go back and decide if the QB is forcing throws (or can't throw those routes) or if the receiver simply doesn't get to what he should get to.

Its not clean, but you need some sense of whether a receiver gets to what is thrown to him. Otherwise alligator armed receivers always look best.

I agree, but for non-drop targeted incompletions its hard for us as fans to attribute fault properly. If every pass has to have a target, sideline and endzone throw-aways are easy to see, but not so much the other things. For example, GB had a QB before Rodgers who played quite a few years, and for much of that time he struggled throwing the long ball well. Whoever was running a big portion of the deep routes in those years might look bad when really those incompletions might have been more on the QB, even though they looked "close".

[pbmax]

Football Outsiders has Jennings with 125 passes thrown to him, Driver 84, Jones 87 and Nelson with 64.

I hate to keep arguing Jones vs. Nelson because I think they are both solid but not great, but the numbers don't indicate that Jones was more effective, but the glaring drops unfairly knocked his performace down. In fact, I'd argue the opposite is true.

According to JSO:

Jennings 159 targets, 6 drops, 97 receptions, 1568 yards, 61% catch/target ratio, 9.9 yards/target ratio
Jones 101 targets, 10 drops, 61 receptions, 823 yards, 60% catch/target ratio, 8.1 yards/target ratio
Driver 101 targets, 7 drops, 65 receptions, 734 yards, 64% catch/target ratio, 7.3 yards/target ratio
Nelson 92 targets, 10 drops, 66 receptions, 868 yards, 72% catch/target ratio, 9.4 yards/target ratio

It seems to me that Nelson was the second most productive WR, but the drops tarnished his year. Now, when I look at the numbers, a few things stand out.

1) Jennings is the deep ball threat, so it's natural that his catch ratio isn't great but his yards ratio is. Also, he's the only guy that got considerable double teams.
2) Driver is almost exclusively a possession receiver at this point in his career.
3) I would think that Nelson and Jones run a lot of similar routes and get similar attention. They are kind of mixed and matched as the 3rd/4th receivers--with Jennings almost always an outside guy and Driver a slot guy.

However, if Jones had not dropped a couple of those possible long TDs, his stats would be more impressive.

Do those JSO numbers include postseason? Nelson had 28 more targets according to JSO than FO.