How much longer for Adrian Peterson?

[Patler]

SI had an article quite a few years ago that looked at RB performance decline based on the number of touches they had in their overall careers, not just as pros. It was surprisingly consistent, though not cast in stone, obviously. As I recall, the decline started in the range of 3000-3500 touches. For some it was performance, for others it was injuries, but for all but a few their overall effectiveness declined significantly.

Adrian Peterson has the following approximate lifetime touches:

500 - high school
750 - college
1300 - NFL

He will be approaching 3000 career touches at the end of this season. Even if the Vikings can rebuild around him over the next 2 years or so, it may be too late.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

He's only 26, regardless of the number of touches he has another 2-3 very good seasons in him. Wear and tear is a big factor, but age is still the biggest. Once he is 29-30 he will not be the same player.

[Patler]

He's only 26, regardless of the number of touches he has another 2-3 very good seasons in him. Wear and tear is a big factor, but age is still the biggest. Once he is 29-30 he will not be the same player.

That was one of the very interesting aspects of the article. It almost ruled out age as the most significant factor. They identified a number of excellent RBs who seemed to flame out at very young ages. All had big workloads before they came to the NFL, and a lot of carries early in their pro careers. Many of the RBs who have been effective into their mid-30s had lighter workloads in college and early in their careers. Touches seemed more significant than age.

That said, I agree he will have 2-3 years at least. My point was that the Vikings are going to need 2-3 years to rebuild around him, and by then it might be too late for Peterson to be a big part of the rebuilt Vikings, because he could be one of the backs who is not effective past 30 due to his pre-NFL and early career workload.

[Guiness]

Anyone know how many touches Chris Johnson has?

There's another guy on a team that's not ready to compete, and could be done when (and if) they turn it around.

[MJZiggy]

That was one of the very interesting aspects of the article. It almost ruled out age as the most significant factor. They identified a number of excellent RBs who seemed to flame out at very young ages. All had big workloads before they came to the NFL, and a lot of carries early in their pro careers. Many of the RBs who have been effective into their mid-30s had lighter workloads in college and early in their careers. Touches seemed more significant than age.

That said, I agree he will have 2-3 years at least. My point was that the Vikings are going to need 2-3 years to rebuild around him, and by then it might be too late for Peterson to be a big part of the rebuilt Vikings, because he could be one of the backs who is not effective past 30 due to his pre-NFL and early career workload.

Anything that makes the Vikings weaker warms my heart. How nice a thought that they will spend a couple years rebuilding around someone who won't be worth anything by the time the house is done.

[red]

patler, do those numbers include catches? i'm guessing they do because you called them "touches"

i've read a little bit about the numbers game, and i'm a believer too. it seems pretty clear that running backs only have a certain amount touches in them

not only is he getting up near that 3000 touch mark, but i'm still waiting for that serious injury to hit hit. his running style led to some pretty big injury problems in college

[red]

Anything that makes the Vikings weaker warms my heart. How nice a thought that they will spend a couple years rebuilding around someone who won't be worth anything by the time the house is done.

and its nice to know they wasted the best years of one of the best players in the nfl without winning the big one

[swede]

and its nice to know they wasted the best years of one of the best players in the nfl without winning the big one

Brett says thanks for the support and kind words.

[vince]

It's a really good question that will be interesting to track in the coming years.

I looked up his stats and was a bit surprised that he wasn't used a bit more than he's actually been to this point.

He had a heavy workload in his second year, but other than that, he's had fewer touches than I expected.

Age Yr. Touches
25 2010 - 319 - 283 rushes & 36 receptions
24 2009 - 357 - 314 & 43
23 2008 - 384 - 363 & 21
22 2007 - 257 - 238 & 19
1317

His YPC is still very good, but it has declined to 4.5 the last two years from an otherworldly 5.2 his first two years.

Here's an article that gives evidence that 400 touches in a year (depending on age) a thresholds for declining performance and 2800 touches dictates the end of a career. Career touches would give Peterson about 4 more years, although another year in the 400 touch range would be pretty debilitating on his career. It'll be interesting to see how much he's ridden this year.

[bobblehead]

Maybe this is why TT didn't take my avice or phonecalls regarding cutting Grant. Although 29, he likely is still well under 3000 touches lifetime.

[KYPack]

SI had an article quite a few years ago that looked at RB performance decline based on the number of touches they had in their overall careers, not just as pros. It was surprisingly consistent, though not cast in stone, obviously. As I recall, the decline started in the range of 3000-3500 touches. For some it was performance, for others it was injuries, but for all but a few their overall effectiveness declined significantly.

Adrian Peterson has the following approximate lifetime touches:

500 - high school
750 - college
1300 - NFL

He will be approaching 3000 career touches at the end of this season. Even if the Vikings can rebuild around him over the next 2 years or so, it may be too late.

Patler, I think you are following me around. Last night we were drinking in the driveway around a firepit, again. After a few rounds, that subject that came up. That Peterson is a great player whose career has been pissed away by a goofball organization.

2009 was their year, but he got diddled by the fickle finger of fate.

And Bert.

It's too bad, sorta.

[Patler]

patler, do those numbers include catches? i'm guessing they do because you called them "touches"

i've read a little bit about the numbers game, and i'm a believer too. it seems pretty clear that running backs only have a certain amount touches in them

not only is he getting up near that 3000 touch mark, but i'm still waiting for that serious injury to hit hit. his running style led to some pretty big injury problems in college

Yup, touches includes receptions and kick/punt returns, although Peterson does not have many returns.

[Patler]

Patler, I think you are following me around. Last night we were drinking in the driveway around a firepit, again. After a few rounds, that subject that came up. That Peterson is a great player whose career has been pissed away by a goofball organization.

Great minds KYP, great minds......!

[3irty1]

The thing with Peterson though is that as much as everyone loved to sniff his jock, he had tons of room to improve. His first two years he might have been the worst back in the NFL on 3rd down and was a fumble machine. He's cleaning that stuff up so even if his body begins to break down, he might be able to make up for it by improving in other areas.

[gbgary]

It's too bad, sorta.

not!!