Could the Seahawks be a trade partner?

[Brandon494]

I think the draft slot does pertain to one thing: upside, or perhaps more accurately, ceiling. He has the physical traits, production and starts that qualified him for the (traditional) first day of the draft. Flynn did not. Its not a perfect indicator, and the farther we are away from it, it means less. But it does tell us something about the reach of his ability.

THIS

[Brandon494]

she threw up when she saw you naked?

She threw up but not because she saw me naked.

[SkinBasket]

She threw up but not because she saw me naked.

You must be one ugly guy if she threw up before you got naked.

[SkinBasket]

I think the draft slot does pertain to one thing: upside, or perhaps more accurately, ceiling. He has the physical traits, production and starts that qualified him for the (traditional) first day of the draft. Flynn did not. Its not a perfect indicator, and the farther we are away from it, it means less. But it does tell us something about the reach of his ability.

We're talking about reality right? Not the player equations in Madden? Draft postion determines player ceilings? wut, wut?

As someone else already pointed out... for every player who provides an example for this kind of thinking, there's another one, or two, or 12 who prove the opposite.

[Zool]

We're talking about reality right? Not the player equations in Madden? Draft postion determines player ceilings? wut, wut?

As someone else already pointed out... for every player who provides an example for this kind of thinking, there's another one, or two, or 12 who prove the opposite.

Where is Jamal Reynolds now-a-days?

[Guiness]

Where is Jamal Reynolds now-a-days?

Still running upfield. He ran right by the OT, lost sight of the quarterback, and just kept going. He went north through the endzone, and was last seen outside Nipigon. No one knows how he got across Superior.

[Fritz]

Not true, Guiness, and very mean of you to boot.

Reynolds tweaked a hammy as he went through the endzone, limped as far as he could, and in an interview later made no excuses but did say it's hard to be effective when you're hurt.

[pbmax]

This I don't agree with, PB. It only takes one silly guy pulling the trigger. Insert Al Davis picture here. Or what about Sam Shields. Ceiling is only one of more aspects.

Quite true. However, the Eagles aren't known for this. Not with QBs, anyway.

[pbmax]

We're talking about reality right? Not the player equations in Madden? Draft postion determines player ceilings? wut, wut?

As someone else already pointed out... for every player who provides an example for this kind of thinking, there's another one, or two, or 12 who prove the opposite.

Yes, we are talking about reality. I am talking about those rookies likeliest to succeed at a high level in the NFL. Not a guarantee of any sort.

And if you stop to think about it, there are not 12 low draft picks who turn out to be stars compared to higher picks. Its quite the opposite and I think plain as day.

That is not to say that mistakes aren't made. And those mistakes (Reynolds) are far more celebrated than low picks who bomb out. But the success rates precisely fall in line by round. Also works for Pro Bowls and All Pros.

Just think about the number of Hall of Fame QBs in late rounds (Unitas, Starr, Brady) and the number of high picks (Marino, Elway, Montana, Aikman, Young, Grahm, Kelly, Bradshaw, Dawson, Griese, Namath, Staubach, Tarkenton, Van Brocklin (4th round, iffy in small league with 82 round draft), Waterfield).

[Guiness]

Yes, we are talking about reality. I am talking about those rookies likeliest to succeed at a high level in the NFL. Not a guarantee of any sort.

And if you stop to think about it, there are not 12 low draft picks who turn out to be stars compared to higher picks. Its quite the opposite and I think plain as day.

That is not to say that mistakes aren't made. And those mistakes (Reynolds) are far more celebrated than low picks who bomb out. But the success rates precisely fall in line by round. Also works for Pro Bowls and All Pros.

Just think about the number of Hall of Fame QBs in late rounds (Unitas, Starr, Brady) and the number of high picks (Marino, Elway, Montana, Aikman, Young, Grahm, Kelly, Bradshaw, Dawson, Griese, Namath, Staubach, Tarkenton, Van Brocklin (4th round, iffy in small league with 82 round draft), Waterfield).

Who invited the voice of reason to the party?

[wootah]

I am talking about those rookies likeliest to succeed at a high level in the NFL. Not a guarantee of any sort.

You are (partially) right but that was not what we were discussing; we were talking about the possible impact of a draft slot on a trade 3 or 4 years after the draft. When a team decides the value of an individual player after 3 years, I doubt that they say "let's offer more because he was drafted high and in general those guys tend to have a better career". No, they actually look at what they think his individual current value is, not at what was perceived to be his value/ceiling (by another team) a couple of years earlier.

If they think he is worth a lower round pick even if at the time of the draft he was picked high, they will offer a lower round pick and vice versa.

[pbmax]

You are (partially) right but that was not what we were discussing; we were talking about the possible impact of a draft slot on a trade 3 or 4 years after the draft. When a team decides the value of an individual player after 3 years, I doubt that they say "let's offer more because he was drafted high and in general those guys tend to have a better career". No, they actually look at what they think his individual current value is, not at what was perceived to be his value/ceiling (by another team) a couple of years earlier.

If they think he is worth a lower round pick even if at the time of the draft he was picked high, they will offer a lower round pick and vice versa.

I understand and certainly, draft slot matters less and less after the players career is underway. However, those same baseline evaluations are still the same. Experience in college, production and all measurables.

Think about all the players that get second chances. Coaches all think they can be the ones to finally bring out the talent that hasn't displayed yet. Perhaps this is what you and Skin are doubting, the fact that for players like Gholston, this rarely works out.

But for Kolb and Flynn, who were occasionally given the opportunity to start and produce (and more often than not, these two did), that potential is far closer to being realized than for a player like Gholston, who only made his last few rosters on his contract and status. Basically, their tape, unlike the flop, still shows promise, but is incomplete.

And when that tape is incomplete, that is when that baseline draft evaluation becomes important. How much more room is there for this kid to get better? And Kolb's upside seemed higher on his draft day than Flynn. Flynn may have been handicapped by his number of starts and needing to wait for Russell to graduate, but it mattered on draft day.

And with an unknown quantity, it still matters today.

[Pugger]

Flynn looks horrid with back-ups but I submit Kolb wouldn't have looked all that wonderful with the Eagles' backups last year either. QBs, more than any other position, need talent around them to show their talent.

[MadScientist]

Flynn looks horrid with back-ups but I submit Kolb wouldn't have looked all that wonderful with the Eagles' backups last year either. QBs, more than any other position, need talent around them to show their talent.

Flynn was surrounded by talent, it was just the talent of the KC defense that he was surrounded by.

[Fritz]

Getting closer to the original spirit of the thread, I'm not sure Seattle would be a big possible trade partner - not for a major trade, anyway - if Schneider is really in charge out there. Pete Carroll seems more like a loose cannon who would make a bigger splash with a crazy azz trade for, say, James Jones.