football efficency.

[Upnorth]

We are currently third in yards/game and first in points per game. Fairly normal.
On the other hand we are 23rd in yards/game and ninth in points/game. That is amazingly efficent defensive production. It seems capers does not care about yards only points and turn overs. That is working to our favor late in games as the majority of our d's turn overs comes in the last half of the game.
If we keep this up I see great things for this team.

Hey does anyone know our bendibilityt rating? I am to cheap to pay for chff insider.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

I wouldn't say Capers doesn't care about the yards because believe me he does (or he better). I think its just more of the defense making plays when it matters most. The defense has steadily been playing better with each game so we will see where they are at in a couple weeks. Either they will keep allowing big yards that will eventually start showing up in the score board or they will continue to play better and the yards ranking will catch up will the points ranking.

[bobblehead]

I think we are very wary to stop explosive plays, and with a full field that means zone flats being open. When the field is shortened (teams get near red zone) there is less room to cover as the back of the endzone makes a nice extra defender. We are playing D that way, again because our Offense is dominant. In Atlanta when we fell behind and couldn't afford to give up FG's, or bleed yards we hunkered down and stopped them. Dom and MM call the D appropriate to the situation, nothing more.

[Upnorth]

I think we are very wary to stop explosive plays, and with a full field that means zone flats being open. When the field is shortened (teams get near red zone) there is less room to cover as the back of the endzone makes a nice extra defender. We are playing D that way, again because our Offense is dominant. In Atlanta when we fell behind and couldn't afford to give up FG's, or bleed yards we hunkered down and stopped them. Dom and MM call the D appropriate to the situation, nothing more.

I think the stats back this view up. I feared after the first two weeks, but am starting to appreciate the strategy.

[denverYooper]

We are currently third in yards/game and first in points per game. Fairly normal.
On the other hand we are 23rd in yards/game and ninth in points/game. That is amazingly efficent defensive production. It seems capers does not care about yards only points and turn overs. That is working to our favor late in games as the majority of our d's turn overs comes in the last half of the game.
If we keep this up I see great things for this team.

Hey does anyone know our bendibilityt rating? I am to cheap to pay for chff insider.

Isn't it just yards/points?

Edit: Bendability is indeed yards/point: http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...ity_Index.html

[denverYooper]

Like so:

[Smidgeon]

Does anyone know where GB ranks in defensive pass rating?

EDIT: Nevermind. Found it.

[Smidgeon]

So a lot of people look at passing yards as a measure of a defense. I think most people on this forum agree that a defense is far more than that. But the record doesn't really follow the "normal" defensive perspective:

Yards per Game: 23rd
Points per Game: 7th
Pass Yards per Game: 30th
Run Yards per Game: 5th

Looking at just these, I would guess that the Packers would have an average defense and would be lucky to maintain the top 10 ranking in points per game and are probably around 4-2 with a couple close losses.

However, one measure that stuck out to me last year was Pass Rating Differential. It's simply the offensive pass rating minus the defensive pass rating allowed. I read an article last year that showed a high correlation of wins to Pass Rating Differential.

And what is Green Bay's ranking in this determinate statistic? First. Far and above. Who's second? Detroit. Adequately above the third but not significantly.

Green Bay has a Pass Rating Differential of 38.1. Detroit has 22.0. Then there are two teams between 20 and 15 (NYG and 49ers). Then it logjams with seven teams between 15 and 10.

Let's put it this way: There are only two teams, Detroit and NYG, that have a Pass Rating Differential greater than half of what Green Bay has. Opposing QBs may be able to put up yards, but they're doing it with high interceptions and low points and only an average completion percentage. Essentially, this means Green Bay jumps out early, and opponents are forced to pass a lot just to catch up. And Green Bay's defense is opportunistic.

In effect, a recipe for success and winning in today's passing game.

[vince]

Good stuff. Thanks Smidgeon.

[bobblehead]

So a lot of people look at passing yards as a measure of a defense. I think most people on this forum agree that a defense is far more than that. But the record doesn't really follow the "normal" defensive perspective:

Yards per Game: 23rd
Points per Game: 7th
Pass Yards per Game: 30th
Run Yards per Game: 5th

Looking at just these, I would guess that the Packers would have an average defense and would be lucky to maintain the top 10 ranking in points per game and are probably around 4-2 with a couple close losses.

However, one measure that stuck out to me last year was Pass Rating Differential. It's simply the offensive pass rating minus the defensive pass rating allowed. I read an article last year that showed a high correlation of wins to Pass Rating Differential.

And what is Green Bay's ranking in this determinate statistic? First. Far and above. Who's second? Detroit. Adequately above the third but not significantly.

Green Bay has a Pass Rating Differential of 38.1. Detroit has 22.0. Then there are two teams between 20 and 15 (NYG and 49ers). Then it logjams with seven teams between 15 and 10.

Let's put it this way: There are only two teams, Detroit and NYG, that have a Pass Rating Differential greater than half of what Green Bay has. Opposing QBs may be able to put up yards, but they're doing it with high interceptions and low points and only an average completion percentage. Essentially, this means Green Bay jumps out early, and opponents are forced to pass a lot just to catch up. And Green Bay's defense is opportunistic.

In effect, a recipe for success and winning in today's passing game.

I have tracked this every week. It is not a great predictor of winning and losing. Prior to this week we have been as low as 11th and as high as 3rd. If we are now first (I won't check until friday) then its the first time all year. Detroit was over 40 for most of the year before this last game. edit: they honestly got cut in half in one game?

[Upnorth]

This site is awesome for intelligent football people. Also smidgeon I have completly bought into passer rating differential, I was just curious about bendability as it seems like teams have to travel the lenght of the feild a couple of times to walk away with anything this year. The rams got 3 points in 424 yrds, and I figured we were close to the top. Thanks denveryooper for the list.

[bobblehead]

Double edit. I just looked something up. ARod is more than 20 points ahead of EVERY QB in the league save for Brady (who he only leads by 15). Are you sure this differential actually says something about good defense, and isn't just dependent on having a great QB? This has been my point all along in debating this point, and all points. The number one iindicator of winning in the NFL is having the better QB. Now, then, always.

hell, I'm on a role. How about the defense of the 5-1 Patriots, who are likely the 2nd best team in the league. Defensive passer rating comes in a cool 25th.....but they do have the second best QB in the league and are really hard to beat despite such an awful defense. I'm telling you, its all about the QB, not the defenses QB rating.

[pbmax]

Double edit. I just looked something up. ARod is more than 20 points ahead of EVERY QB in the league save for Brady (who he only leads by 15). Are you sure this differential actually says something about good defense, and isn't just dependent on having a great QB? This has been my point all along in debating this point, and all points. The number one iindicator of winning in the NFL is having the better QB. Now, then, always.

hell, I'm on a role. How about the defense of the 5-1 Patriots, who are likely the 2nd best team in the league. Defensive passer rating comes in a cool 25th.....but they do have the second best QB in the league and are really hard to beat despite such an awful defense. I'm telling you, its all about the QB, not the defenses QB rating.

See Fouts, Chargers and Marino, Dolphins. Its both, but you obviously have a lot more margin for error with a high performance QB.

And about passer rating, it tends to over penalize INTs and double counts completions, which are among the many reasons ESPN tried to rebuild it. But several of the QB rating factors are dependent at least in part, on a talented receiving corp and passable pass blocking.

[vince]

Bobble, why you continue to be in denial on this subject is beyond me. The facts are indisputable, as is the logic. If it's all about the QB as you acknowledge, then the team with the better performing QB in any game is the team likely to win. That can be your team's QB performing well, the other team's QB performing poorly, or some combination of the 2. That's Passer Rating Differential.

Here is the entirety of the data for 2010. You continue to insist on handpicking the exceptions within the data set in your attempt to disprove the entire data set. That doesn't change the facts no matter how much you insist it does.



Passer rating on its own lags behing passer rating differential, turnover differential and time of possession in its correlation to winning football games.

Your insistence that these facts don't predict anything, while of course its true, is also bunk in terms of disproving the conclusions that can be drawn from this. The facts are that if you can accurately predict which team will have the higher passer rating in any game, you are very likely to predict the winner to the tune of a .77 correlation. The statistic shows history and history doesn't always preduct the future no matter how much people want it to. And throw out spreads from the equation because they aren't considered unless you are gambling. This statistical fact doesn't consider point spreads and was never designed to do so.

Not sure where you're getting the stats you summarized but the last time I looked, which was the last time this subject was raised here after about week 3, the Packers were #1 in passer rating differential then as they are now, though the difference betweeen them and the second place team was much closer at that time.