Cap & Trade

[Lurker64]

How do the compensatory picks work under the new CBA?

It seems Flynn is going to get a lucrative contract. In the past, that would have turned into a 3rd round pick, the same as we got with Kampman. Cassel only fetched a 2nd round pick, is it worth the risk of franchising him to move up one round?

I don't believe anything has changed in the CBA as concerns compensatory picks.

[Tarlam!]

If you have a system that makes your quarterback successful, that means you have devised a good offense. This is what you want to do. If you're devising your offense to make things hard on your QB, that's a mistake.

That's what my assumption was.

[Patler]

How do the compensatory picks work under the new CBA?

It seems Flynn is going to get a lucrative contract. In the past, that would have turned into a 3rd round pick, the same as we got with Kampman. Cassel only fetched a 2nd round pick, is it worth the risk of franchising him to move up one round?

Presumably a trade would be with a team having a poor record, so even a trade for a third round pick would be a high third round pick. The highest compensatory is after the third round is done.

The difference with a second round pick can be quite a lot. People have mentioned Seattle, which will have the 11/12 pick, depending. Their second will be #43 or #44. The highest a compensatory pick can be is #97.

[hoosier]

People saying "system QB" in the NFL are idiots, or at least they don't understand what the "system quarterback" criticism means.

Saying a guy is a "System Quarterback" is a critique of *college* QBs making the transition to the NFL, saying that they won't be able to carry over their performance to the professional level.

In the NFL there's no higher echelon of football you will be promoted to. If you have a system that makes your quarterback successful, that means you have devised a good offense. This is what you want to do. If you're devising your offense to make things hard on your QB, that's a mistake.

They're saying "system QB" to mean that someone's success (like Flynn) is a function of the system and wouldn't be replicable in another system. It's not so much a question of promotability as it is of translatability. The question is, does the belief in the basic difference between offensive systems really hold water in today's NFL, or do most (successful) offenses have enough in common so that if you have the skills to succeed in one, you will do just as well in others? Or, put differently, are most coaches flexible enough to mold their system to suit the QB rather than the other way around?

[Deputy Nutz]

Is Rodgers a "system qb"? My answer is no, but his progress does have a lot to do with the coaching he is receiving and the Mike McCarthy system he plays in that relies on a high number of passes, and a complex passing scheme that attacks the defense. Rodgers is smart, he completely understands the system, has the arm strength to make all the throws, and makes the correct decisions with football in hand. He is a perfect QB for the McCarthy passing offense, Matt Flynn who is less talented, but intelligent, and has been in the system for 4 years has enough skills to also perform well under McCarthy. It goes back to the original West Coast Offense that relied on a QB to make the right decisions and read the defense, not a QB that could throw the ball over the moon. It also relied on receivers and Qbs being on the same page, it is just as important for a receiver to read the defense correctly as it is for the QB. The bottom line is very few QBs make a poor scheme or system work, where as a good passing scheme and offense make average qbs good, and good qbs great.

[Fritz]

"TT won't give him a Franchise tender without having a deal to trade him all but completed."
- Patler

This seems the most important point of all. It means, then, that TT would have to find a trade partner he trusts, and will have to work the back channels. The worst-case scenario would be to try to put a trade in place, franchise Flynn, then have the trade fall apart and have a fifteen million dollar backup QB. At which point your salary cap is shot and you're going to lose Finley most likely, or Nelson next year, or whomever.

As others have mentioned, Seattle is the most likely landing spot. Tennessee has Reinfeldt, whom TT knows, but how long is Hasselback's contract?

And would TT want to try to work with someone like Dan Snyder? I dunno.

I wonder if Denver is a possibility. Despite all the Tebow mania, that guy doesn't put points on the board. He just doesn't.

I'd say the Pack will play it safe and end up with the end-of-the-third-round compensatory pick.

[retailguy]

As others have mentioned, Seattle is the most likely landing spot. Tennessee has Reinfeldt, whom TT knows, but how long is Hasselback's contract?

Who cares? Tennessee drafted Jake Locker in the 1st round last year. He'll get a shot before they bring in anyone else.

I agree with your conclusion. Take the compensatory pick and move on. It isn't worth the risk.

Doubtful that Flynn wants to stay, someone will give him a shot to start. Getting a 3rd round pick for a 7th round pick is a good deal. especially when you consider having the services of that QB for 4 years. Also, we should have Harrell up to speed. Whatever that's worth, I guess.

[pbmax]

Can anyone name a QB that has switched teams and signed a contract comparable to what you think Flynn is worth? I would be curious to see what kind of deal people think he will receive.

It can't be for Romo or Rodgers money, which is mid-level at this point, so what are the comparables?

[Patler]

I agree with your conclusion. Take the compensatory pick and move on. It isn't worth the risk.

Doubtful that Flynn wants to stay, someone will give him a shot to start. Getting a 3rd round pick for a 7th round pick is a good deal. especially when you consider having the services of that QB for 4 years. Also, we should have Harrell up to speed. Whatever that's worth, I guess.

That really is the key to this whole thing. TT will likely be more than happy with a 3rd/4th round compensation pick for a 7th round draft choice who cost very little and provided valuable backup for 4 years. I don't know if TT is enough of a gambler to risk tagging Flynn or signing him with the expectation of trading him.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Silverstein has the facts on the situation. Technically, you can't franchise a player for purposes of a trade, unless other team is willing to pony-up two first rounders. But it's complicated, read and weep:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/flynn-departure-may-not-aid-packers-k43ld06-136557403.html

Unfortunately, I expect Flynn will just leave.

[Guiness]

Silverstein has the facts on the situation. Technically, you can't franchise a player for purposes of a trade, unless other team is willing to pony-up two first rounders. But it's complicated, read and weep:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/flynn-departure-may-not-aid-packers-k43ld06-136557403.html

Unfortunately, I expect Flynn will just leave.

I'm busy here. How about you make yourself useful and tell us what it says, and means to the Pack?
(channeling my inner MTP here. I probably should've been more insulting though)

[Harlan Huckleby]

I'm busy here. How about you make yourself useful and tell us what it says, and means to the Pack?
(channeling my inner MTP here. I probably should've been more insulting though)

I can't really provide executive summary because story is nuanced, pardon my french. It will be hard for TT to get anything for Flynn, not impossible. TT is pretty conservative.

[retailguy]

Can anyone name a QB that has switched teams and signed a contract comparable to what you think Flynn is worth? I would be curious to see what kind of deal people think he will receive.

It can't be for Romo or Rodgers money, which is mid-level at this point, so what are the comparables?

When you put the numbers to this, the whole franchise and trade doesn't make sense. Cassell is the most frequently cited but he played a full season (well minus one half of a game), so there was much less risk there.

To sign Flynn? Probably $35 - $40 million total on a 4 year deal with $10m guaranteed. The franchise tag makes this type of contract unworkable because of the $14.5m franchise tag guarantee. So now, you're looking at $50 million minimum over 4 maybe 5 years, with a $13-$15 bonus up front, PLUS a draft pick.

Possible? Sure. Likely? No.

[ThunderDan]

I'm leaning towards the Pack trying to find a trading partner and then discussing contracts with that team. The Pack could then sign Flynn to a similar contract and trade to the "trading partner".

You need to think about the backside of this also. If I am Seattle or Washington or Denver, I don't want to get in a bidding war that 1) I might not win and 2) I might win and be paying $7-9M a season for a QB. I would rather know the contract I am going to have to offer and give a high draft pick.

[RashanGary]

They'll franchise him and get at least a 2nd.