#1 SEEDS-- WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL IN THE PLAYOFFS AND WHY ?

[Lurker64]

I think Cinci does upset Housten. I know they played poorly recently, but Housten isn't legit IMO.

Cincinnati is 0-7 against teams that finished the season with a winning record. I think they're less legit than Houston.

[Tarlam!]

Cincinnati is 0-7 against teams that finished the season with a winning record. I think they're less legit than Houston.

True, but Yates?

[Gunakor]

I really don't like our chances this year...the defense is just awful at being able to get pressure on the QB, and our offense hasn't been the machine it was the first half of the season. The defense is going to have to force turnovers if we are going to repeat.

Our offensive machine just put up a pretty crooked number on a divisional opponent playing a playoff game this weekend. They did so without the services of the top 2 offensive players on the roster. As a counterpoint to your assertion that our offensive machine hasn't been performing up to snuff, the majority opinion at this time is that Matt Flynn enjoyed the success he did on Sunday specifically because of the well oiled machine that is the offense he was directing that afternoon. I don't completely buy that argument as stated, because it downplays the talent and production that Flynn has to offer, but it does have a bit of merit. The most potent offense in the NFL is the one Flynn directed on Sunday, the same offense Rodgers led for 16 weeks prior.

As to your other point, for all of the questions and concerns about our defense, nobody can force turnovers like our group can. If winning the turnover battle is enough to put us in favorable situations then I love our chances against anybody in the league.

[Gunakor]

I'll be cheering HARD for Detroit this weak. The Saints really scare me. The Giants do as well.

You know which team scares me the most? San Fransisco. The Niners have the 3 things needed to beat us. They have an outstanding running back. They have an outstanding tight end. And they have an outstanding defense. No other team in the NFC bracket has all three of those things. So I'm rooting for the team that can go into San Fransisco next week and beat those guys. I'm rooting for New Orleans.

[Gunakor]

I think NO beats the Niners.

Exactly.

[Bretsky]

You know which team scares me the most? San Fransisco. The Niners have the 3 things needed to beat us. They have an outstanding running back. They have an outstanding tight end. And they have an outstanding defense. No other team in the NFC bracket has all three of those things. So I'm rooting for the team that can go into San Fransisco next week and beat those guys. I'm rooting for New Orleans.

Gore IMO has been very ordinary this year. Either he's banged up or getting old but I would not put him in the outstanding group.

[Gunakor]

Gore IMO has been very ordinary this year. Either he's banged up or getting old but I would not put him in the outstanding group.

I don't know about that. 6th in the NFL in rushing at 4.3 per clip is nothing to sneeze at. Alex Smith was efficient and careful with the football, but Gore and that running game was what carried that offense yet again this season.

1200 yards is exceptional in my book. I argued the same thing when Ryan Grant was putting up 1200 yard seasons and people said that was ordinary. If it was ordinary, it wouldn't rank in the top 10 in the NFL year after year.

[Bretsky]

I don't know about that. 6th in the NFL in rushing at 4.3 per clip is nothing to sneeze at. Alex Smith was efficient and careful with the football, but Gore and that running game was what carried that offense yet again this season.

That is a pretty good OL
I wonder what Kendall Hunter averaged; to me he looks every bit as good as Gore.

[Gunakor]

It all plays a part in it. When I say exceptional back, I guess what I mean is exceptional running attack featuring a back putting up 1200 yards at 4+ per clip while carrying an offense. You're right, that is a pretty good OL and Gore's #'s certainly aren't suffering because of it. But my point remains. Those guys can run the ball.

[Patler]

These are what he considers "the 10 most important statistical categories":
rushing offense
rushing defense
passing offense
passing defense
turnover differential
explosive-play differential
offensive third-down conversion rate
defensive third-down conversion rate
offensive red-zone efficiency
defensive red-zone efficiency

Does anyone else find it peculiar that stats such as points scored and scoring differential are not among the 10 most important statistics?
How about points scored on defense and defensive points allowed on offense?
How about red-zone touchdown to field goal ratio on offense and defense?
How about percentage of possessions resulting in touchdowns on offense and defense, and percentage of possessions resulting in scores on both offense and defense?

I suspect that the list will look a lot different if the statistical categories deemed to be "the most important" are actually ones that relate to the score.

[Bretsky]

These are what he considers "the 10 most important statistical categories":
rushing offense
rushing defense
passing offense
passing defense
turnover differential
explosive-play differential
offensive third-down conversion rate
defensive third-down conversion rate
offensive red-zone efficiency
defensive red-zone efficiency

Does anyone else find it peculiar that stats such as points scored and scoring differential are not among the 10 most important statistics?
How about points scored on defense and defensive points allowed on offense?
How about red-zone touchdown to field goal ratio on offense and defense?
How about percentage of possessions resulting in touchdowns on offense and defense, and percentage of possessions resulting in scores on both offense and defense?

I suspect that the list will look a lot different if the statistical categories deemed to be "the most important" are actually ones that relate to the score.

Now that sounds like a great project for you j/k

[mraynrand]

Does anyone else find it peculiar that stats such as points scored and scoring differential are not among the 10 most important statistics...etc.

yes. It was weird what he picked. Almost as though he were trying to find a way to make he Ravens look better than they are. It's a QB-driven league and the Best QBs are not in Baltimore and San Fran or Houston.

The Stats don't tell you what changes when teams get down by several TDs.

[jdrats]

GB and NE really do have a lot of striking similarities

Both have explosing offenses with top tier QB's
Both have receiving weapons hard to defend....in NE their threats may be their two stud TE's
Both score a ton

Both have shitty defenses right now who are not good at their down stops

Without turnovers both of these defenses look brutal.

Needing a defensive stop late in the game may equal the end of their season

Yeah, I'd sure hate to see GB needing a goal-line stop against NO late in the game to preserve a win. Oh, wait, nevermind...

[pbmax]

Team	Roff	Rdef	Poff	Pdef	TOdiff	ExpDif	3rdO	3rdD	RZoff	RZdef	Total
BAL	10 	2	19	4	11	9	7	2	17	1	82
HOU 	2	4	18	3	7	6	9	14	25	9	97
NO 	6	12	1	30	21	4	1	5	6	28	114
PIT 	14	8	10	1	28	1	4	19	18	17	120
ATL 	17	6	8	20	6	11	6	29	13	8	124
DET 	29	23	4	22	4	7	20	3	4	12	128
SF 	8	1	29	16	1	12	31	11	30	4	143
GB 	27	14	3	32	2	19	3	26	3	20	149
NE 	20	17	2	31	3	27	5	28	2	21	156
NYG 	32	19	5	29	8	16	14	17	8	22	170
CIN 	19	10	20	9	17	15	18	13	26	25	172
DEN 	1	22	31	18	27	20	30	6	23	15	193

[pbmax]

Quote all the yardage statistics you want. The Packers are 15-1, a great accomplishment when everyone is gunning for you because you're the Champ. Bottom line is, the Packers know how to win. Opposing QB's have a 80.6 rating against the Packers, which is 9th best defensively. They just beat a playoff team without their starting quarterback, best receiver, best pass rusher, best cornerback, starting running back and and starting kick returner. Name me another team that could have done that.

The total yardage stats make the list questionable. While it is not what it was last year, the Packers pass defense is not 32nd in the League. Much work as been done to point out the flaws of this stat, but the NFL simply doesn't listen when it ranks teams.