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What the heck? I think I am 0-1 for Game Day Threads. Best to put me to use where I can do no harm
Conventional Wisdom from Advanced Statistics:
From the discussion, this looks like a model of past behavior, so there is a strong tendency for homefield advantage and by weeks to pay off. For the Super Bowl, the Packers (20%) have the best chance followed by New England (16%), Pittsburgh and Houston (14% each). I think he is overrating Houston's odds and I like Baltimore (8%) more than his model does.
They predict Pittsburgh (to the tune of 81%) to be the only Wild Card team to advance over a Division winner. Cincinnati is given the least chance (22%) while the Suhs (32%) and the Falcons (35%) are given a roughly 1 in 3 chance. I think the Lions have a real shot in N'awlins.
Football Diagrams
A breakdown of the Sunday's matchups by team and the best short example of why the Cowboy could not beat the Giants. Mike Tanier is always a good read, and has a nice chalkboard play diagram for each team.
AFC Preview
Boiled down to its basics? The AFC West is the new NFC West, the Bengals had to play the actual NFC West to make the playoffs, Andy Dalton or not. Four team race with Houston having a giant question mark at QB and Pittsburgh starting to play better as Rothliesberger gets more banged up. Since this is Football Outsiders, there are considerably more numbers here than I have mentioned to back them up.
NFC Preview
Takeaways: Look for Lions TEs eating up the short middle of the field versus the Saints (while also remembering that there are 3 D starters back for this game compared to Week 13). Blitz Brees no matter what Gregg Easterbrook will write next Tuesday, you think the Falcons love to run the ball and they do on first down but they are surprisingly terrible at it and the Falcons defense might be better than their offense and the Giants will need to throw on it to beat it.
Conventional Wisdom from Advanced Statistics:
From the discussion, this looks like a model of past behavior, so there is a strong tendency for homefield advantage and by weeks to pay off. For the Super Bowl, the Packers (20%) have the best chance followed by New England (16%), Pittsburgh and Houston (14% each). I think he is overrating Houston's odds and I like Baltimore (8%) more than his model does.
They predict Pittsburgh (to the tune of 81%) to be the only Wild Card team to advance over a Division winner. Cincinnati is given the least chance (22%) while the Suhs (32%) and the Falcons (35%) are given a roughly 1 in 3 chance. I think the Lions have a real shot in N'awlins.
Football Diagrams
A breakdown of the Sunday's matchups by team and the best short example of why the Cowboy could not beat the Giants. Mike Tanier is always a good read, and has a nice chalkboard play diagram for each team.
AFC Preview
Boiled down to its basics? The AFC West is the new NFC West, the Bengals had to play the actual NFC West to make the playoffs, Andy Dalton or not. Four team race with Houston having a giant question mark at QB and Pittsburgh starting to play better as Rothliesberger gets more banged up. Since this is Football Outsiders, there are considerably more numbers here than I have mentioned to back them up.
NFC Preview
Takeaways: Look for Lions TEs eating up the short middle of the field versus the Saints (while also remembering that there are 3 D starters back for this game compared to Week 13). Blitz Brees no matter what Gregg Easterbrook will write next Tuesday, you think the Falcons love to run the ball and they do on first down but they are surprisingly terrible at it and the Falcons defense might be better than their offense and the Giants will need to throw on it to beat it.
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