Capers

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

What does everyone think of him this year?

I commented after the eagles playoff game last year that I wouldn't be sad see him leave to coach on another team unless he gets the D to show up the rest of the playoffs. Well we went on to win it all with the defense playing a big part in it. However, this year we statistically have the worst defense in football and I see a lot of people giving him a pass.

My question is why?

The main reason I see being given is that we play with a big lead most of the game. I personally think that is a total BS excuse. Other reasons include Collins going on IR and losing Jenkins in the offseason. I understand we lead the league in takeaways, which is important, but it doesn't seem the D can stop anyone out right.

We gave up a record 4700+ passing yards this season with the likes of Woodson, Williams, Shields, and Burnett in the secondary.

I think Capers deserves a big part of the blame. Other than Collins (which was a big loss) we have been fairly healthy all season. Neal not being able to replace Jenkins plays a big part as well. The D had a chance to ice the giant’s game and they failed. They had a chance to win a game for us when the offense was playing like shit in KC and they failed. The only game they played well IMO was at ATL week 5.

When the defense drops from number 5 to 32 I think the D coord deserves some blame. It seems like every time we make the playoffs it’s the defense that is always the concern.

[sharpe1027]

The first and foremost thing is that I assume that you are ranking the defenses based up yards/game? I completely disagree with using that as a metric and believe that it is all but worthless on its own.

The last two teams in this category have two of the best records in the NFL.

[gbgary]

i think he's done fine considering injuries and current team. if the pass rush was better we'd be hearing a different tune in the air. it's not like he suddenly got dumb.

[MadScientist]

It is a strange year for defenses. Packers gave up the most yards, NE second worst, NO third worst. The Giants are ranked 29th against the pass.

I don't think anyone here is thrilled with the way the defense is playing, but it does seem like there is something more significant going on here beyond just the Packers. As for Capers, given what he did last year, I'd be willing to give him another year and some good draft picks to see if he can make things better next year. If not, then it may be time for a change, especially if the league trend reverses itself and the Packers don't win consistently.

[sharpe1027]

Doesn't Capers have a history of having a quick improvement when he first arrives, followed by a decline?

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

It is a strange year for defenses. Packers gave up the most yards, NE second worst, NO third worst. The Giants are ranked 29th against the pass.

I don't think anyone here is thrilled with the way the defense is playing, but it does seem like there is something more significant going on here beyond just the Packers. As for Capers, given what he did last year, I'd be willing to give him another year and some good draft picks to see if he can make things better next year. If not, then it may be time for a change, especially if the league trend reverses itself and the Packers don't win consistently.

I agree with this. It does seem like the year of the offense, but its how steep we dropped from one year to the next that is the concern for me. The D can't stop the pass or the run, all they do is takeaway the ball. If Manning avoids throwing picks I expect the Giants to drop 35 plus on us again.

[pbmax]

A near miss at allowing a game winning drive by Michael Vick and the Eagles Offense in 2010 caused you to want Capers to leave? After surrendering just 16 total points in the game? The Eagles had plenty of offense last year but no defense. They fired their DC at the end of the season. Yet the Packer offense that causes you no worry piled up a grand total of 21 points in that game. What am I missing here? Last year's Packer defense was lights out, though not perfect.

Its hard to take yardage rankings seriously as a measure of the best. And you are kidding yourself if you don't think an explosive offense, playing with an early, big lead (as opposed to last year's more consistent, smaller 4th Qtr lead) doesn't impact the passing yards allowed total. It does not explain it all, but its a significant factor. Just look at the point differential for the Packers this year (201) versus last year (148). Teams can run against the Packer D but cannot afford to do it often in the 2nd half. Add in the 4 minute offense and the Packers are often trading passing yards for time.

The per game point differential in 2010 was +9.25 Packers. This year its +12.56 Packers. I am hard pressed to say the defense is the worst in the league when the team improved this year. I would say 19th in points allowed is a better measure but I bet even that is inflated if we could know how many possessions the Packers D faced this year versus last. I would bet their efficiency number is close to average while the offense's number would be off the chart.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Capers can come up with all the schemes he wants but there still has to be players to execute them. Outside of Matthews there's nobody who can rush the passer. Last year there was some help for him and we had some players who stepped up in that regard. You get pressure, the defense suddenly looks a lot better.

This next draft or FA, the Packers have to get either a DL (preferrably) or OLB who can rush the passer and bring some heat. That alone would make the defense much better.

[HarveyWallbangers]

The defense has disappointed, but I've said for years it's stupid to rank a defense on yards/game. We have led by a wide margin in a lot of games. The defense gives up prevent yards. The offense goes in "wear out the clock" mode. For us, that means 3 runs and a punt--putting the defense on the field more often. The defense is pretty average, but it led the league in turnovers and I read that it was two points better than league average in points allowed. It also ranks in the top third, I think, or maybe just top half in opposing passer rating--which is a huge stat. You have to factor in opposing passer rating, points allowed, and turnover when judging a defense--along with some other things. To me, the defense is average. Is that good enough to win another championship? I don't know. We do need some new talent on that side of the ball. We need another DE. (Hopefully, Mike Neal fulfills the promise he showed last year.) We need another OLB opposite Matthews. (I don't see that player on the roster.) We need a safety. (Hopefully, Collins comes back or we find somebody in the draft.) We also need another corner. (Hopefully, that will be Davon House.)

[sharpe1027]

The defense has disappointed, but I've said for years it's stupid to rank a defense on yards/game. We have led by a wide margin in a lot of games. The defense gives up prevent yards. The offense goes in "wear out the clock" mode. For us, that means 3 runs and a punt--putting the defense on the field more often. The defense is pretty average, but it led the league in turnovers and I read that it was two points better than league average in points allowed. It also ranks in the top third, I think, or maybe just top half in opposing passer rating--which is a huge stat. You have to factor in opposing passer rating, points allowed, and turnover when judging a defense--along with some other things. To me, the defense is average. Is that good enough to win another championship? I don't know. We do need some new talent on that side of the ball. We need another DE. (Hopefully, Mike Neal fulfills the promise he showed last year.) We need another OLB opposite Matthews. (I don't see that player on the roster.) We need a safety. (Hopefully, Collins comes back or we find somebody in the draft.) We also need another corner. (Hopefully, that will be Davon House.)

+1

I do not want them to throw Capers out and then roll the dice on trying to find someone better from the coaching scrap heap; however, that doesn't mean I think the defense is perfect and cannot improve. I don't think that is giving Capers a "pass" so much as being realistic in my expectations. The defense has been good enough to win all season. Hopefully, it will get better in the post season and next year. Keep Capers, the alternative scares the shit out of me.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

A near miss at allowing a game winning drive by Michael Vick and the Eagles Offense in 2010 caused you to want Capers to leave? After surrendering just 16 total points in the game? The Eagles had plenty of offense last year but no defense. They fired their DC at the end of the season. Yet the Packer offense that causes you no worry piled up a grand total of 21 points in that game. What am I missing here? Last year's Packer defense was lights out, though not perfect.

Its hard to take yardage rankings seriously as a measure of the best. And you are kidding yourself if you don't think an explosive offense, playing with an early, big lead (as opposed to last year's more consistent, smaller 4th Qtr lead) doesn't impact the passing yards allowed total. It does not explain it all, but its a significant factor. Just look at the point differential for the Packers this year (201) versus last year (148). Teams can run against the Packer D but cannot afford to do it often in the 2nd half. Add in the 4 minute offense and the Packers are often trading passing yards for time.

The per game point differential in 2010 was +9.25 Packers. This year its +12.56 Packers. I am hard pressed to say the defense is the worst in the league when the team improved this year. I would say 19th in points allowed is a better measure but I bet even that is inflated if we could know how many possessions the Packers D faced this year versus last. I would bet their efficiency number is close to average while the offense's number would be off the chart.

You took what I said about the eagles game the wrong way. I wasn't talking about that game being the reason I didn't care if capers left. That was around that same time capers was being connected with possibility being the next head coach in Denver and many were getting worried that he was leaving. I wanted the defense to continue playing the way they had been all year until the super bowl before I gave him his due. I hadn't forgotten the cards playoff game from the year before. He found a way to get the defense to play big the rest of the playoffs and we won it all. I was very happy with the D and everything they accomplished last year. My question is does capers deserve some of the blame this year or is simply a consequence of circumstance (playing with a big lead, no Jenkins, etc.)

Is it Collins going down or Jenkins leaving the reason we are giving up more plays? Its not like we didn't have injuries last year.......I honestly don't believe its as easy as saying we play with a big lead most games so we play prevent defense. Basically the whole year its been the offense bailing out the defense or have I been watching different games? We have a MUCH better offense than we had last year and I don’t think its even close. IMO they cover up MANY weaknesses on defense. I hope we are not in a situation in the playoffs were we need the defense to win the game because I don’t think they will come through.

[Smidgeon]

The defense has disappointed, but I've said for years it's stupid to rank a defense on yards/game. We have led by a wide margin in a lot of games. The defense gives up prevent yards. The offense goes in "wear out the clock" mode. For us, that means 3 runs and a punt--putting the defense on the field more often. The defense is pretty average, but it led the league in turnovers and I read that it was two points better than league average in points allowed. It also ranks in the top third, I think, or maybe just top half in opposing passer rating--which is a huge stat. You have to factor in opposing passer rating, points allowed, and turnover when judging a defense--along with some other things. To me, the defense is average. Is that good enough to win another championship? I don't know. We do need some new talent on that side of the ball. We need another DE. (Hopefully, Mike Neal fulfills the promise he showed last year.) We need another OLB opposite Matthews. (I don't see that player on the roster.) We need a safety. (Hopefully, Collins comes back or we find somebody in the draft.) We also need another corner. (Hopefully, that will be Davon House.)

I myself am holding out hope that Davon House turns out to be a great pick.

[pbmax]

Gotcha. Thought the Eagle game was a strange one to say, aha, Capers needs to go. I don't think the AZ playoff game was his career Waterloo or demonstrated some innate flaw in his system. The Packers and Patriots have strafed the Steelers defense multiple times in the last 3 years and no one sensible was calling for LeBeau's head. If you need to blitz a great QB to get pressure, its going to cost you and Warner made the Packers pay. Same as Rodgers made the Cardinals pay. There is a decided lack of playmakers in the front seven and that hurts the pass rush. The Packers have spent a month looking for another pass rushing body after thinking Walden was going to do it and they may have to go back to Jones just to get solid play. You upgrade that position or put Jolly out there instead of CJ Wilson, the Capers looks smarter.

My only Capers related fear about the defense is the new Eagle front they introduced this training camp and apparently are still using. It sounds like its working for Pickett, but I am not sure about the rest of the defense.

"We moved him a little closer to the ball," Trgovac said. "The year before, there were times where he was out there on the end. Pick did that not being a selfish guy. Now in most of our defenses he's at least a three-technique. That means on the outside he's at least a shade on the guard. And he's more comfortable on the inside. That's really what he is."

[mmmdk]

I do not think this is a too bold opinion; but Nick Collins is our best defender and his career is in jeopardy. The absense of Collins is hurting more when the pass rush is lacking as it is. Yup, Collins is even better and more important than super stud Clay Matthews.
I cannot pin the lack of a pass rush solely on losing Jenkins; sans Claymaker the front seven have been average at best. This is due to the lack of talent, players in decline (eg Hawk) and players being worn down (eg BJ Raji & Pickett) in the front seven plus backups.

[Brandon494]

Can't blame Capers, our defense is just not as good as it has been the past few years for several reasons...

1. Losing Nick Collins who I believe is the 2nd best FS in the game behind Ed Reed.
2. Tramon Williams not being the same shut down corner. I don't know if his shoulder is still bothering him or what but hes clearly not the same player we saw last season.
3. Clay Matthews and BJ Raji aren't playing badly but they are not nearly as dominate as they were last season.
4. Losing Cullen Jenkins who was the pass rush opposite of Clay Matthews.
5. AJ Hawk playing horrible after having a very solid season last year.

Thankfully the offense has improved greatly from last season for several reasons as well...

1. Aaron Rodgers is the man.
2. Jordy Nelson taking a big leap in his play this season and proving he is the man.
3. Having Finley back, even though hes not having a great season he still opens up plays for others.
4. Having a improved running game with Starks and Grant. Last season we mainly had Brandon Jackson and Kuhn at RB.
5. Randall Cobb replacing Brett Swain giving Rodgers another weapon while also improving the return game.