Official "WTF TT?" draft picks theory and speculation thread

[Lurker64]

Early on in Ted Thompson's tenure as general manager of the Green Bay Packers, he made a number of picks that were contrary to the prevailing sentiment about how the team would be best served, which lead to a combination of head scratching and acrimony among Packer fans. At the time it was hard to see spending the highest pick on Aaron Rodgers, Justin Harrell, and Jordy Nelson as keeping with the popular consensus on the Packers' needs, but in retrospect 2/3 of those picks were actually very savvy moves on the part of Ted.

So in the interest of both harmony and "having something different to talk about" I thought I would start a thread to speculate on how Ted could use his picks in ways that are surprising or befuddling.

The prevailing wisdom is that the Packers would spend their premium picks on defensive linemen and outside linebackers (because the pass rush was bad), cornerbacks and safeties (because the coverage was poor and Nick Collins's future is in doubt), or maybe a center (depending on what happens in Free Agency). What could else could the Packers do that would surprise us.

I would suggest a format of describing the scenario, why it's a crazy idea, and subsequently why it may not be such a crazy idea. I'll post a few of my own to start.

So does anybody have any crazy theories of something the Packers could do in the first three or so rounds that would aggravate, confuse, befuddle, or otherwise just fail to make obvious sense?

[Lurker64]

The Scenario: First round running back.

Why this is crazy: The Packers are a passing team. The Packers are a very good passing team. The Packers may be among the best passing teams in the NFL. The Packers may be among the best passing teams in NFL history. Why would you want to take the ball out of Aaron Rodgers' hands? The running back simply isn't important in the NFL these days. It's unclear how much this would help the Packers since "scoring points" wasn't really their problem last year. Guys like Green, Saine, and Starks seem to be "good enough" RBs in this offense.

Why this is less crazy than you might think:Mike McCarthy said from day 1 that he wants to run the ball. The Packers have struggled to run the ball under McCarthy all but one year, and noticeably struggled to do anything on offense in their two losses last year because the running game was so impotent. This year at the combine, McCarthy has said that he's going to "change the way that he runs the ball" and while this most obviously refers to play calling and blocking schemes, he could be talking about making use of a different kind or calibre of running back. Alex Green's availability next year is in question any way, due to an ACL being a 1 year-and-change sort of injury. So if the scouts are high on someone like Boise State's Doug Martin, Miami's Lamar Miller, or Virginia Tech's David Wilson it wouldn't be wholly surprising to see Thompson pull the trigger in the first round. This would probably help the offense score more points, kick start the offense when it's struggling, and also help the Packers salt away games late by killing clock. It's clear that all of these things would help, though I would hate it if the Packers did this (but one of the reasons for this thread is to go through the logic of picks like this so that we hate them less in case they happen.) So maybe TT figures we're a Marshall Faulk short of being the greatest show on grass.

[Lurker64]

The Scenario: Day 2 wide receiver

Why this is crazy: Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Randall Cobb present as young and talented a quartet as WRs as you find in the league. Add to the fact that Finley looks to be sticking around, and the question of "will there be balls to go around" arises. It's not like the passing offense really needs to improve significantly from last year.

Why this is less crazy than you might think: Scouting second and third round WRs is probably the thing that Ted does best. In fact, Ted has selected a WR in the second or third round every year that Ted made a pick in either the second or third round (the exception was 2010 where the Packers had two firsts and then no picks until the fourth). Since we scout WRs well, and there's no such thing as having too many great players at a position, it's possible that a player of such tremendous value might be available that all questions of "need" simply disappear. My dark horse for this would be Appalachian State wide receiver Brian Quick. Thompson has been tied to scouting him extensively in the past, and he is an impressive prospect at 6'3 1/2", 34 1/4 inch arms, 9 3/4" hands who runs a 4.5 and is a former basketball player and high jumper. This is a mold of WR we don't really have, and he's a developmental type prospect who may drop due to the extreme depth of the WR position this year and the fact that he's a small school prospect without great production against top CBs. He could conceivably be ready to burst onto the scene at about the time that James Jones' contract would expire, and Thompson may have concerns about the cost of resigning Greg Jennings.

[Lurker64]

The Scenario: First Round Offensive Tackle.

Why this is crazy: Ted Thompson has drafted an offensive tackle in each of the last two first rounds, Bryan Bulaga and Derek Sherrod are promising young players with significant potential, and offensive line play was actually a strength of this team. No first round tackles that really fit the athletic profile Ted looks for in offensive linemen seem likely to be around (Matt Kalil's not lasting to pick 28.)

Why this is less crazy than you might think.: Derek Sherrod's broken leg puts his 2012 season into doubt, and the team may not feel comfortable with Bulaga and Newhouse as the bookends, as Newhouse really didn't play very well last year. Sherrod's entire future in the NFL may be in doubt, and "keeping Aaron Rodgers upright" is more important than "not letting the #32 pick in the 2011 draft go to waste" anyway. While athletic enough tackles don't project to be available, the only times Ted has really broken from his mold were when a guy fell to him (notable examples Bryan Bulaga and Jamon Meredith). Lower tier first round offensive tackles like Ohio State's Mike Adams (on the back of a poor combine) or Stanford's Jonathan Martin (on the back of no combine, and strength/aggressiveness questions) could plausibly still be available at pick #32. Ted could pull the trigger. In this scenario, I think Adams would project to the right side and Bulaga would swap to the left, whereas Martin would be a left tackle and the right side would be intact.

[Fritz]

The scenario: first round tight end.

Why this is crazy: The team just re-signed Jermichael Finley, and has DJ Williams, Ryan Taylor, and Tom Crabtree coming back, as well as Andrew Quarless recuperating from a severe injury. Most rats are guessing they'll pup Quarless and bring him back at week six. So that's four or five young tight ends. This is so not a position of need, or even of future need. If you wanted a tight end, you'd take one later - a developmental project.

Why this is less crazy than you might think: It's not. It's just fucking crazy.

[Lurker64]

Why this is less crazy than you might think: It's not. It's just fucking crazy.

But the Tight End is the future of the NFL offense, just look at the Patriots with Gronkowski and Hernandez. Also Tom Crabtree, as much as I enjoy his twitter antics, is not a special player and can easily be improved on by a guy who is a better blocker and a guy who is actually a threat to catch a pass. But yeah, this is stretching it.

[pbmax]

The scenario: first round tight end.

Why this is crazy: The team just re-signed Jermichael Finley, and has DJ Williams, Ryan Taylor, and Tom Crabtree coming back, as well as Andrew Quarless recuperating from a severe injury. Most rats are guessing they'll pup Quarless and bring him back at week six. So that's four or five young tight ends. This is so not a position of need, or even of future need. If you wanted a tight end, you'd take one later - a developmental project.

Why this is less crazy than you might think: It's not. It's just fucking crazy.

1st Round TE pick? Crazy.

6 TEs on roster in 2012 from mid round pick in '12 draft? Mortal Lock.

[Lurker64]

I'm trying to come up with a "TT takes a first round ILB" scenario that's more substantive than "Hawk sucks, let's get rid of him."

[smuggler]

I look for Thompson and McCarthy to try and carry 5 safeties into opening day next year, and strip down to only two TEs

[Fritz]

I was just having some fun, Lurk. I guess the real surprise-but-it's-not-so-crazy would be a left tackle in round one.

Or a nose tackle - which I could heartily defend.

[Smidgeon]

I think the WR scenario actually makes a lot of sense.

[pbmax]

The scenario: First Round CB *

Why this is crazy: Most CB discussion about secondary trouble has focused on lack of offseason work for Shields and Williams injury. The assumption is that a healthy Williams and a properly prepared Shields will handle the outside better in '12 and let Wood be Wood. Add in a healthy safety option better than Peprah and another year wiser Burnett, the CBs would seem at most to be the fourth most likely position to be snagged early.

Why this is less crazy than you might think: Wolfian principles state that you cannot fail to have prime physical talent at QB, DE/OLB, CB and LT. So it meets the organizational philosophy. I don't think Wood would thrive as a safety but it could be that he is the short term answer on run downs (corner Oakie). That is going to increase the roster spots for CB by 1. Shields is still a project and he might not turn the corner. Williams might return to his previous level, but he is the only proven commodity even if he does. House is an unknown, no matter how much the team likes his chances. Lee and Bush as stopgaps at this point. Essentially, it is possible that Packers do not see a true 2nd wide CB on the roster.


* I know Lurk pegged this as the 3rd or 4th most likely scenario, but I feel confident if Ted went CB we would get a lot of Thompson ego threads

[pbmax]

I'm trying to come up with a "TT takes a first round ILB" scenario that's more substantive than "Hawk sucks, let's get rid of him."

The guy from Alabama inside has rushed the passer before. I could see the Packers grabbing a monster for inside and then blitzing him like Patton in a tank.

[pbmax]

I was just having some fun, Lurk. I guess the real surprise-but-it's-not-so-crazy would be a left tackle in round one.

Or a nose tackle - which I could heartily defend.

I would not be stunned at Left Tackle. If Clifton is a cap casualty (I am not yet buying it, but if) then the Packers would have Bulaga and Newhouse starting and be short on prime candidate at tackle. A lot depends on Sherrod's health.

[Lurker64]

Or a nose tackle - which I could heartily defend.

I've thought about Alameda Ta'amu a lot; he's a player I really like. I just can't see playing him and Raji at the same time, as you'd be sacrificing a ton of length on the DL. But he's definitely a BPA possibility.

The guy from Alabama inside has rushed the passer before. I could see the Packers grabbing a monster for inside and then blitzing him like Patton in a tank.

Hightower is a definite possibility, I just have a sneaking suspicion that a lot of scouts hate him. I think that since there's talk about whether he can play OLB, that people will assume the Packers picked him to play OLB no matter what they actually do with him (much like how people, to this day, think the Chiefs are playing Brandon Albert out of position at LT, since their initial impression was "guard.")

* I know Lurk pegged this as the 3rd or 4th most likely scenario, but I feel confident if Ted went CB we would get a lot of Thompson ego threads

I definitely agree that if we took a CB there would be a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth "nobody can cover long enough to make our pass rush effective" but I think there would be a lot of pushback here, since the CB scenario does make a lot of sense. Shields or House turning into a player is far from a given.