Saturday on a Friday

[Joemailman]

I doubt signing Saturday changed the early rounds of the draft much. TT probably wasn't going to draft a Center in the first 2 rounds anyway. On the other hand, if he feels someone like Konz is the best player on the board when their pick comes, he'll take that player despite the signing of Saturday.

[Fritz]

Ah, you know TT well, Joseph.

[Patler]

Saturdays contract terms, very favorable to the Packers:

@AdamSchefter Jeff Saturday's two-year deal in Green Bay is worth $7.75 million, including $4 million this season.

Wells received $13 million guaranteed, it looks like Saturday is getting $4 million guaranteed at most, probably less if by some strange occurence he did not make the roster this year.

[George Cumby]

Saturdays contract terms, very favorable to the Packers:

[URL="https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter"]

Wells received $13 million guaranteed, it looks like Saturday is getting $4 million guaranteed at most, probably less if by some strange occurence he did not make the roster this year.

Strong work, Ted.

[Upnorth]

So we are saving two mil a year on the cap by down grading to saturday. I am somewhat pleased we got him, but would have preferred Wells. Guess I just have to convince myself that Wells wanted to go else where.

[gbgary]

I doubt signing Saturday changed the early rounds of the draft much. TT probably wasn't going to draft a Center in the first 2 rounds anyway. On the other hand, if he feels someone like Konz is the best player on the board when their pick comes, he'll take that player despite the signing of Saturday.

if tt took konz in the first round now, knowing our defensive needs, i'd have to go on ir or the pup list.

[Patler]

So we are saving two mil a year on the cap by down grading to saturday. I am somewhat pleased we got him, but would have preferred Wells. Guess I just have to convince myself that Wells wanted to go else where.

Why do you have to convince yourself that Wells wanted to go elsewhere?

First, for 2012, I'm not sure Saturday is a significant downgrade. Saturday of just a few years ago may have been a better player than Wells has ever been. Even if he is not as good as he was, how much of a downgrade is it?

One thing is certain, Saturday must be as good, if not better than Wells on all the pre-snap stuff, since Manning and the Colts used the no-huddle so much, and were so good at it. Age isn't going to affect that part of his game.

Comfort yourself in knowing that the money saved at center can be used to sign or extend another player.. A slight downgrade at center might allow them to improve elsewhere, either by an unlikely FA signing, or by extending someone early. Look at it in the four year window of Wells contract. If Saturday hangs around as the starter for 2 years at about $8 million, and then you have a young guy take over, even as a high draft pick the starter will likely cost less than $6 million. That means over the four year period they will have saved $10-12 million at center to use for other positions.

[pbmax]

nevermind, Patler got it

[Upnorth]

Why do you have to convince yourself that Wells wanted to go elsewhere?

First, for 2012, I'm not sure Saturday is a significant downgrade. Saturday of just a few years ago may have been a better player than Wells has ever been. Even if he is not as good as he was, how much of a downgrade is it?

One thing is certain, Saturday must be as good, if not better than Wells on all the pre-snap stuff, since Manning and the Colts used the no-huddle so much, and were so good at it. Age isn't going to affect that part of his game.

Comfort yourself in knowing that the money saved at center can be used to sign or extend another player.. A slight downgrade at center might allow them to improve elsewhere, either by an unlikely FA signing, or by extending someone early. Look at it in the four year window of Wells contract. If Saturday hangs around as the starter for 2 years at about $8 million, and then you have a young guy take over, even as a high draft pick the starter will likely cost less than $6 million. That means over the four year period they will have saved $10-12 million at center to use for other positions.

While I agree that Saturday of yesterday (this would be clever if today was sunday) was better than Wells of today, he has declined over the last three years, and Oline has a steep drop off when you hit the age wall. Lets hope Polian did not do what TT has done, cast of the old just when they are done. Further it seems to me the colts blocking system is predicated on a pocket quarterback who occasionaly moves the pocket, whereas the GB blocking system is built on a mobile qb who takes advantage of that. The way to set your blocks and read the defence are different in the two systems. I would have rather bit the bullet on Wells and homegrown his backup than bringing in the ageing dog and teaching him new tricks.
For what its worth I really hope you can make me eat crow.

Finally the two million a year against the cap is exactly that, 2 million, not 10 to 12 over 4 years. My hope is EDS grows into the center, and he has potential (see Suh, Cry Baby) so I would have rather seen the money spent on Wells.

[MJZiggy]

While I agree that Saturday of yesterday (this would be clever if today was sunday) was better than Wells of today, he has declined over the last three years, and Oline has a steep drop off when you hit the age wall. Lets hope Polian did not do what TT has done, cast of the old just when they are done. Further it seems to me the colts blocking system is predicated on a pocket quarterback who occasionaly moves the pocket, whereas the GB blocking system is built on a mobile qb who takes advantage of that. The way to set your blocks and read the defence are different in the two systems. I would have rather bit the bullet on Wells and homegrown his backup than bringing in the ageing dog and teaching him new tricks.
For what its worth I really hope you can make me eat crow.

Finally the two million a year against the cap is exactly that, 2 million, not 10 to 12 over 4 years. My hope is EDS grows into the center, and he has potential (see Suh, Cry Baby) so I would have rather seen the money spent on Wells.

Uhhhh...Not sure if you're visiting a different continent, but here in North America, it's Saturday.

[Patler]

Finally the two million a year against the cap is exactly that, 2 million, not 10 to 12 over 4 years. My hope is EDS grows into the center, and he has potential (see Suh, Cry Baby) so I would have rather seen the money spent on Wells.

Actually, it isn't just 2 million per year. You really have to look at the guaranteed money and lengths of contracts, because those are the issues that affect if you can or can not sign other players. It will be paid regardless. Wells is guaranteed to get $13 million, Saturday just $4 million. The Packers have flexibility with $9 million cap dollars that they would not have if they had signed Wells for the same contract he did sign. They may chose to give some $3.75 million of it to Saturday next year, or they may sign a cheaper or more expensive alternative for 2013.

[Upnorth]

Actually, it isn't just 2 million per year. You really have to look at the guaranteed money and lengths of contracts, because those are the issues that affect if you can or can not sign other players. It will be paid regardless. Wells is guaranteed to get $13 million, Saturday just $4 million. The Packers have flexibility with $9 million cap dollars that they would not have if they had signed Wells for the same contract he did sign. They may chose to give some $3.75 million of it to Saturday next year, or they may sign a cheaper or more expensive alternative for 2013.

I was under the understanding that guaranteed money is prorated over the lenght of the contract, so it would not be a 9 million dollar difference this year but over the 3 years of Wells contract. I believe the average of Wells Contract is just over 6 mill a year, where as Saturday's is just under 4 mil a year. So lets say the difference is about 2 1/4 a year, so we would not be losing 9 mil in flexibility this year, but rather 2 1/4 mil this year. Next year same thing. The following year would be the big difference between the contracts, as Saturday would be gone and Wells would still be around, and possibly still playing at a decent level. 2014 is the year the big tv contract hits the cap, so there will be a corresponding jump in the cap, most estimate about 20 mil (from what i read) which reduces the impact of Wells final year. Long story short, I think you are over stating the financial impact of the two contract. Money is important, but we are talking about a key player on the oline for protecting ARod.

Aside from the money, did you follow my other (and more important) point?

Those add up to my desire to see it as Wells wanting to move rather that TT screwing up.

[Patler]

I was under the understanding that guaranteed money is prorated over the lenght of the contract, so it would not be a 9 million dollar difference this year but over the 3 years of Wells contract. I believe the average of Wells Contract is just over 6 mill a year, where as Saturday's is just under 4 mil a year. So lets say the difference is about 2 1/4 a year, so we would not be losing 9 mil in flexibility this year, but rather 2 1/4 mil this year. Next year same thing. The following year would be the big difference between the contracts, as Saturday would be gone and Wells would still be around, and possibly still playing at a decent level. 2014 is the year the big tv contract hits the cap, so there will be a corresponding jump in the cap, most estimate about 20 mil (from what i read) which reduces the impact of Wells final year. Long story short, I think you are over stating the financial impact of the two contract. Money is important, but we are talking about a key player on the oline for protecting ARod.

Aside from the money, did you follow my other (and more important) point?

Those add up to my desire to see it as Wells wanting to move rather that TT screwing up.

I didn't mean they would have the $9 million this year. Over some period of time, they are guaranteed to have flexibility with at least $9 million more. It could be over two years, 3 years or 4 years, depending on how long the players play (and any cap hit accelerations), and it could end up being more than $9 million (and probably will be).

I think it is likely to play out this way:
- Wells will play out his contract and cost about $25 million (depending on incentives).
- Saturday will play one year at about $4 million.
- Player "X" will start in 2013-2015 at significantly less.

During those four years, the Packers will have had flexibility with an awful lot of cap dollars to use toward other players. When that happens is anyone's guess.

If you want to get down to hard facts, against the 2012 cap, Saturday might actually cost as much or more than Wells. Some reports have Wells cap number this year at only $3.5 million. I think it is very shortsighted to consider the impact on only one year when when an FA is signed with a significant guarantee, because the guarantees eat into future caps and impact what you can do with other players. Wells will eat ups somewhere between $13-25 Million. During a similar time frame (whatever it is) the Packers will spend less than half as much for their center.

As to level of play, I don't think there will be significant drop off in 2012. For 2013-2015, depends on who plays in GB.

[Upnorth]

I didn't mean they would have the $9 million this year. Over some period of time, they are guaranteed to have flexibility with at least $9 million more. It could be over two years, 3 years or 4 years, depending on how long the players play (and any cap hit accelerations), and it could end up being more than $9 million (and probably will be).

I think it is likely to play out this way:
- Wells will play out his contract and cost about $25 million (depending on incentives).
- Saturday will play one year at about $4 million.
- Player "X" will start in 2013-2015 at significantly less.

During those four years, the Packers will have had flexibility with an awful lot of cap dollars to use toward other players. When that happens is anyone's guess.

If you want to get down to hard facts, against the 2012 cap, Saturday might actually cost as much or more than Wells. Some reports have Wells cap number this year at only $3.5 million. I think it is very shortsighted to consider the impact on only one year when when an FA is signed with a significant guarantee, because the guarantees eat into future caps and impact what you can do with other players. Wells will eat ups somewhere between $13-25 Million. During a similar time frame (whatever it is) the Packers will spend less than half as much for their center.

As to level of play, I don't think there will be significant drop off in 2012. For 2013-2015, depends on who plays in GB.

This is similar numbers to what I have seen, however the Wells only costing 3.5 this year is new to me. My point is future cap dollar effects will be greatly reduce in the year where Wells contract passes Saturdays due to the TV budget. I kinda doubt Saturday is here next year, where as Wells would play for three more years in all likely hood. It is like planning for growth adjusted inflation. The bigger future numbers are reduced in real terms due to the overall increase in the pie. If the cap goes up the 20 million, that is like adding about 17%ish to the cap, so the cost of Wells 6 mil in todays terms is only about 83% of the 6 mil, plus you still have a center under those terms. I seen having a good line as one of the most important keys to the offence. I guess it boils down to where you want to spend the limited dollars, and to me Wells was a wise investment.

As previously stated, I really hope I eat crow for this.

[Lurker64]

I doubt signing Saturday changed the early rounds of the draft much. TT probably wasn't going to draft a Center in the first 2 rounds anyway. On the other hand, if he feels someone like Konz is the best player on the board when their pick comes, he'll take that player despite the signing of Saturday.

I think Ted would be hard pressed to spend a first round pick this year on a player who wouldn't challenge to start, since there's enough who would. It's not like Konz is a huge upside guy, a lot of his value is in the fact that he's clean, technique sound, and really NFL ready. But he's not going to top Saturday in the pre-snap read stuff (which GB's system puts a huge priority on), and there's no way that Konz is going to win any of the other four starting jobs unless we feel compelled to move Lang to tackle for some reason (which wouldn't be a good idea, since he's a darn good LG.)