One Man's Guess: Pack Mock

[Lurker64]

If you take an OT in the first round, you have to be confident that the guy can come in and play in his rookie year. I've watched a whole lot of Boise State games in the last four years, there is no way Nate Potter is able to start effectively at left tackle in the NFL. Dontay Moch ate that guy's lunch in that 2010 game that Boise lost to Nevada, and he's going to see a lot better pass rushers than Moch in the NFL (especially in the NFCN where Allen, Peppers, and Avril are a dangerous trio of rushers). Nate Potter would not beat out Marshall Newhouse in TC, and he will not go in the first (or second, and probably not third) round in April.

People have this impression that Ted is a BPA drafter, he's not. Ted is a value oriented drafter. There simply is no case that Potter is the player on TT's board with the most value at #28 in April.

Could TT draft Potter? Absolutely, but the value has to be there at the slot, which won't come until the third round at the earliest. TT probably has a higher grade on Stephenson or Mosley than Potter, anyway.

But this is academic, since every indication is that Sherrod will be ready to go for training camp. So TT isn't going to reach for an LT, and he's not exactly a guy prone to reaches.

[Bretsky]

If you take an OT in the first round, you have to be confident that the guy can come in and play in his rookie year. I've watched a whole lot of Boise State games in the last four years, there is no way Nate Potter is able to start effectively at left tackle in the NFL. Dontay Moch ate that guy's lunch in that 2010 game that Boise lost to Nevada, and he's going to see a lot better pass rushers than Moch in the NFL (especially in the NFCN where Allen, Peppers, and Avril are a dangerous trio of rushers). Nate Potter would not beat out Marshall Newhouse in TC, and he will not go in the first (or second, and probably not third) round in April.

People have this impression that Ted is a BPA drafter, he's not. Ted is a value oriented drafter. There simply is no case that Potter is the player on TT's board with the most value at #28 in April.

Could TT draft Potter? Absolutely, but the value has to be there at the slot, which won't come until the third round at the earliest. TT probably has a higher grade on Stephenson or Mosley than Potter, anyway.

But this is academic, since every indication is that Sherrod will be ready to go for training camp. So TT isn't going to reach for an LT, and he's not exactly a guy prone to reaches.

Agree with the comments but I'm calling one bluff. I think TT knew Sherrod was a project....but I think he saw the long term potential at LT and took the plunge. I don't think he was confident Sherrod would contribute his rookie season

[Lurker64]

Agree with the comments but I'm calling one bluff. I think TT knew Sherrod was a project....but I think he saw the long term potential at LT and took the plunge. I don't think he was confident Sherrod would contribute his rookie season

There's a difference between "would" and "could". TT didn't expect Sherrod to have to play much his rookie year, but if you watched him towards the end of his season, he was definitely playing better than Newhouse would have and looked like a better LT than Bulaga would be. If Sherrod's leg is healed (and there's every indication he's on track), and he can pick up where he left off, I'm totally comfortable with him at LT.

[woodbuck27]

[QUOTE=packrulz;661859]It amazes me how people look at boards and form opinions on guys they've never seen play, at least I look at the videos: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CXr9UQALkQ
Potter played basketball, he had to gain about 60 lbs to play LT, and it's not body fat. Whoever said he's not strong enough, I don't see that on the video. A good LT uses his hands and feet to gain leverage, so strength isn't always critical. If he doesn't get picked in the first round, I still think he'll be good. I stand by my pick.QUOTE]

There's your guy ... ** OT Nate Potter, Boise State ** ranked at the Number 34th Draft Prospect, on 'this site'. Other sites have him going late third and fourth round.

I studied Nate Potter on video. He looks light in his legs. He spends alot of time on the ground. This is college ball.

Are you confident that this OT will transition to the NFL?

I do NOT mean to disrespect your personal high ranking of Nate Potter. Maybe you might take a look at some of the other options that Ted Thompson will have available to him at pick #28. Is there noone else that you might consider as your Option A and B pick at #28?

Looking over this TOP 100 I couldn't help noticing the absence of two LB Prospects whick makes me question if this TOP 100 is considered reliabe as a source. Those two missing prospect are: Courtney Upshaw and Shea McClellin:
.
LB Courtney Upshaw , Alabama

In his senior season, Courtney Upshaw started all 13 games for the Crimson Tide.

He accounted for 51 total tackles, 17 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, and two forced fumbles. For his on-field performance,

Upshaw was named first team All-America by the Football Writers Association of America and The Sporting News.He was also recognized as second team All-America by the Walter Camp Football Foundation and the Associated Press.

In the 2012 BCS National Championship Game, Courtney Upshaw was named the defensive MVP with his seven tackle performance, which included one sack and one tackle for a loss.


Shea McClellan, OLB Boise State:

"
Strengths:Prototypical 3-4 outside linebacker. High energy, high effort player. Experience lining up at end and linebacker. Reliable wrap-up tackler. Impressive agility for a guy his size. Has the speed to make plays in pursuit. Strong pass rusher off the edge; has the speed to blow past slower offensive tackles, especially when lining up with his hand off the ground.

Does a nice job fighting through traffic when blitzing inside. Strong enough to shed blocks fairly consistently.
Weaknesses:Inconsistent explosion of the snap; seems to guess at the snap count a lot, occasionally explodes out of his stance but other times will be the step behind the rest of the linemen. Overaggressive in pursuit; gives a great effort, but often inefficient with the angles he takes which results in missed opportunities. Needs to do a better job keeping his eyes on the quarterback when blitzes; often misses opportunities due to his inability to adjust. Missed time with a leg injury as a freshman.Comments:McClellin may not be a great fit for every defense, but he’s a perfect fit at outside linebacker a 3-4 system. At this stage of his career, he’s overaggressive and inconsistent but he possesses all the physical tools necessary to develop into a quality starter. " ***

*** Projected today to be drafted in Round 1-2.

Shea McClellin is ranked #3 out of 190 LBers by ****.

**** http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings...012&genpos=OLB

http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/2012/top-nfl-prospects-for-2012.cfm

"#21 Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State - 6'4 - 295
#22 Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State - 6'3 - 310
#23 Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois - 6'4 - 265
#24 Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina - 6'1 - 193
#25 Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama - 5'10 - 183


#26 Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama - 6'4 - 260
#27 Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor - 5'10 - 190
#28 Mark Barron, S, Alabama - 6'2 - 218
#29 Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin - 6'5 - 315
#30 Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska - 5'10 - 205

#31 Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M - 6'4 - 222
It helps Tannehill that the top two quarterbacks will be off the board right away, because he is the next best available at his position.
#32 Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson - 6'2 - 310
#33 Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech - 6'5 - 206
Hill was blazing fast at the combine. So fast that he may be climbing all the way into the first round.
** #34 Nate Potter, OT, Boise State - 6'6 - 295 **
#35 Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia - 6'0 - 185

#36 Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State - 6'3 - 250
#37 Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson - 6'4 - 255
#38 Nick Perry, DE, Southern California - 6'3 - 250
#39 Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers - 6'2 - 215
#40 Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall - 6'4 - 263

#41 Rueben Randle, WR, LSU - 6'4 - 208
#42 Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina - 6'2 - 230
#43 Cliff Harris, CB, Oregon - 5'11 - 180
#44 Tommy Streeter, WR, Miami (FL) - 6'5 - 215
Streeter's blend of size and speed is absolutely incredible. His potential is off the charts.
#45 David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech - 5'10 - 205
Wilson, Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, and LaMichael James are battling to be the second running back taken after Richardson.

#46 Juron Criner, WR, Arizona - 6'4 - 215
#47 Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma - 5'10 - 188
#48 Kelechi Osemele, OG, Iowa State - 6'6 - 347
#49 Nick Toon, WR, Wisconsin - 6'3 - 220
#50 Ronnell Lewis, LB, Oklahoma - 6'2 - 244 " ... Partial Ranking in Article

[packrulz]

It's too easy to criticize my picks, let's see you guys post your picks, so far it's only me, joemailman, farleyface, & wist.

[Lurker64]

It's too easy to criticize my picks, let's see you guys post your picks, so far it's only me, joemailman, farleyface, & wist.

Waiting to hear on Collins, my mock changes in a big way if he's not available.

[pbmax]

Project? PROJECT!? We're talking about a project?

Derek Sherrod is not a project. Jamon Meredith was a project. Even if you believe Sherrod did not play worthy of a first round pick (and I would still disagree), he did not play like a project.

Breno Giacomini was a project.

[woodbuck27]

It's too easy to criticize my picks, let's see you guys post your picks, so far it's only me, joemailman, farleyface, & wist.

Hey man...PLEASE, dion't take it as criticism or too serious. You have your way of looking at this draft and noone will take that away from you.

Maybe some of us just want to gain some insight into your choices.

Personally I have my MOCK and because I read all I can that MOCK changes every week. I wish i could post my MOCK on here today but it's a work in progress.

I'm just a football fan and at a certain disadvantage to ever imagine my MOCK is especially good.

Whatever MOCK I come up with as an end result will not be somiliar to Ted Thompson's and that's moot as it's very possible that noone will see TT's MOCK. I look at it all with as much insight as I can gain ...reading ...reading and more reading. I ask questions of fellow posters here at Packerrats and try to gain further insight.

Just maybe? .... Have fun with it... and always question your MOCK.

[woodbuck27]

http://www.ehow.com/about_6397835_nfl-vs_-college-football.html

NFL Vs. College Football

X
J.M. Soden
J.M. Soden has been a freelance writer since 2005. He primarily writes sports articles but also enjoys writing about travel destinations, legal matters and electronics troubleshooting. He holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from the University of Notre Dame in American studies.

By J.M. Soden, eHow Contributor

"To a novice football fan, the differences between professional football in the NFL and college football may seem minute or go unnoticed. However, to a seasoned fan or trained football eye, the small differences in the format and rule books actually make the two significantly different games. " J.M. Soden

Comment woodbuck27:

Sometimes we need to be reminded of 'the facts'. I always have too much to learn. (-:

[Joemailman]

Take a look at this. Just a suggestion:

http://walterfootball.com/draft2012bigboard.php

You might rethink your MOCK.

Why?

[packrulz]

Why?

I think because they have Potter going in the 4th round, but Walter Football isn't the greatest source. I think he'll go higher than that. And don't get me wrong, I like Sherrod, I'm not so sure he'll be ready to start though.

[Lurker64]

Finally came up with one that I'm happy with with or without Collins:

Player availablity roughly based on PFW's value chart: http://www.profootballweekly.com/201...-value-chart-7

TRADE: Ted sends #28 (660 points) to Jacksonville for #38 +#80 (660 points)
#38 2a) Whitney Mercilus, OLB, Illinois
Ted trades down because a bunch of OLBs he likes are still on his board and Jacksonville wants to grab the OT on the board. Only one is left by the time Ted picks again in the second, but it's coincidentally the guy with the highest upside. If nothing else, he gets after the QB on third down improving the worst 3rd down pass defense in the league.

Ted sees a guy he has a high grade fall past a team he thought would take him on and pulls the trigger to cross a tier

TRADE: Ted sends #59, #90 (450 points) for to Dallas for #45 (450 points) to select
#45 2b) Devon Still, DE, Penn State
Still falls a little due to productivity, injury, motor, and hand use concerns. He's absolutely a player Trgo can work with though, high end tools, best frame on the DL.

#80 3) Brandon Hardin CB/FS, Oregon State
Ted "reaches" for a guy in the eyes of the media who have miscast Hardin (who played CB for the Beavers) as a cornerback instead of a safety, similar to how Nick Collins had 5th round grades as a CB in 2005. Even if Collins is cleared, he may not play more than another couple of years, Hardin eventually replaces him and teams with Burnett in the backfield.

4a) Chris Polk, RB, Washington
Ted is gobsmacked to find this guy here, PFW says he might be.

4b)Philip Blake OG/OC, Baylor
Not an ideal pick, since 26 year old developmental centers aren't ideal, but he can take over for Saturday in a year or two preventing the need for another stopgap. Perhaps not the long term solution.

4c) Akiem Hicks, DE, Regina
Green as seasick grass, but similar tools to Brockers who's goes in the high first. Can become a player, Ted takes him higher than the "experts" would have.

5) Jake Bequette, OLB, Arkansas
Good size, motor, athleticism, has experience playing in space. Technique is terrible. Value meets the slot here.

6) Ryan Lindley, QB, San Diego
Rocket-armed QB whose footwork is atrocious, which hurts his accuracy. No prospect in the draft stands more to gain from McCarthy's QB school than Lindley.

7a) Chris Greenwood, CB, Albion
Developmental size/speed CB.

7b) Tydreke Powell, NT, North Carolina
Ted's 7th round DL flyer is a nose tackle this time.

7c) Bryce Harris, OT, Fresno State
Ted's late round developmental OL flyer.

7d) Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State
Because, why not.

[woodbuck27]

Why?

Whenever I see a response like that I think to myself....what can I do with that? Was my response to packrulz not more mannerly then 'your post to me'? Did you have a problem with my response? If so try to articulate your complaint please. Your why? isn't much better than 'a GRUNT' Joemailman.

I'll ignore your why? As that response gives me 'a zero' to work with. I'll return with more than a ZERO as this forum deserves that respect.

Trying to respond to someone like you that has no more sense that to 'GRUNT' (a why?) doesn't add to 'the Spirit' that we all deserve to enjoy here.

I suppose your the type that's defensive and often responds with 'a why?'. Bad habits are hard to break. (-:

I don't just subscribe to Walterfootball.com.

I will add these LINKS:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/09/2012-mock-draft-take-two/

http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/2012/2012-nfl-mock-draft.cfm?writer=37&page=3

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/18355428/big-board-sec-dominates-on-field-and-in-terms-of-draft-prospects

If those LINKS are studied and a poster here adds more information. Well, alot more information. That poster might be suitably equiped to make a pretty solid MOCK Draft. It takes considerable skill and experience to master the art of the MOCK. It's OK to not have it perfect.

Making a MOCK takes considerable time and attention .It takes a thourough knowledge of team needs with all emotion aside; where to pull the trigger to best address those needs. It should also be fun.

[woodbuck27]

Finally came up with one that I'm happy with with or without Collins:

Player availablity roughly based on PFW's value chart: http://www.profootballweekly.com/201...-value-chart-7

TRADE: Ted sends #28 (660 points) to Jacksonville for #38 +#80 (660 points)
#38 2a) Whitney Mercilus, OLB, Illinois
Ted trades down because a bunch of OLBs he likes are still on his board and Jacksonville wants to grab the OT on the board. Only one is left by the time Ted picks again in the second, but it's coincidentally the guy with the highest upside. If nothing else, he gets after the QB on third down improving the worst 3rd down pass defense in the league.

Ted sees a guy he has a high grade fall past a team he thought would take him on and pulls the trigger to cross a tier

TRADE: Ted sends #59, #90 (450 points) for to Dallas for #45 (450 points) to select
#45 2b) Devon Still, DE, Penn State
Still falls a little due to productivity, injury, motor, and hand use concerns. He's absolutely a player Trgo can work with though, high end tools, best frame on the DL.

#80 3) Brandon Hardin CB/FS, Oregon State
Ted "reaches" for a guy in the eyes of the media who have miscast Hardin (who played CB for the Beavers) as a cornerback instead of a safety, similar to how Nick Collins had 5th round grades as a CB in 2005. Even if Collins is cleared, he may not play more than another couple of years, Hardin eventually replaces him and teams with Burnett in the backfield.

4a) Chris Polk, RB, Washington
Ted is gobsmacked to find this guy here, PFW says he might be.

4b)Philip Blake OG/OC, Baylor
Not an ideal pick, since 26 year old developmental centers aren't ideal, but he can take over for Saturday in a year or two preventing the need for another stopgap. Perhaps not the long term solution.

4c) Akiem Hicks, DE, Regina
Green as seasick grass, but similar tools to Brockers who's goes in the high first. Can become a player, Ted takes him higher than the "experts" would have.

5) Jake Bequette, OLB, Arkansas
Good size, motor, athleticism, has experience playing in space. Technique is terrible. Value meets the slot here.

6) Ryan Lindley, QB, San Diego
Rocket-armed QB whose footwork is atrocious, which hurts his accuracy. No prospect in the draft stands more to gain from McCarthy's QB school than Lindley.

7a) Chris Greenwood, CB, Albion
Developmental size/speed CB.

7b) Tydreke Powell, NT, North Carolina
Ted's 7th round DL flyer is a nose tackle this time.

7c) Bryce Harris, OT, Fresno State
Ted's late round developmental OL flyer.

7d) Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State
Because, why not.

There...is some real thought and a solidly backed up MOCK DRAFT in terms of explanation (at least). A fella can't ask for more than that.

Congratulations Lurker64. A lot of time was spent working up that model. Now I'll check it out to see how fast you might have written down ** 'a dream'.

Those moves trading down from #28 to #38 and trading up fr. #59 to #45 make alot happen in a deep top of the draft. I'm amaqzed that ** Whitney Mercilus, OLB, Illinois was there for you #38 pick. Of course I love him and at #45 Devon Still, DE, Penn State...pretty sweet.

I need some time to look at the rest of your masterpiece. (-:

GO PACKERS !

[woodbuck27]

I think because they have Potter going in the 4th round, but Walter Football isn't the greatest source. I think he'll go higher than that. And don't get me wrong, I like Sherrod, I'm not so sure he'll be ready to start though.

No. It's my fairest assesment that there are better choices available if TT had to select at LT in the First Round.

I would bet alot on this.If TT was to elect BPA at #28 he would not in this lifetime select 'your choice of LT'. Sorry but that is how it shakes out.

Have a wonderfful time upgrading your MOCK or NOT. I'm not here to make you feel badly.

GO PACK GO !