McGinnn ""THOMPSON ROLLS DICE IN DRAFT""

[Lurker64]

The sense in which Thompson "rolled the dice" is that he traded up a lot, not that he took bums. Trading up is always risky, since any prospect, no matter where he's taken has a chance to suck regardless of how much scouts loved him coming out. Having more picks is like having more lottery tickets.

That being said I think the media is guilty of caring too much about "does he fit in [scheme]" which is the wrong way to think about it. Coaches match scheme to the players, not the other way around. Plus, when you really get down to it, football isn't that complicated for most positions; if you can run, hit, and tackle they'll find a place for you on defense.

[Tony Oday]

But for TT trading up was almost required because we didnt have space for 12 new guys

[Lurker64]

But for TT trading up was almost required because we didnt have space for 12 new guys

And yet, one or two of the undrafted guys will probably make the roster.

[mraynrand]

It was a Shermanesque draft, except that the Packers have existing talent on the roster, and the picks make sense.

[Lurker64]

It was a Shermanesque draft, except that the Packers have existing talent on the roster, and the picks make sense.

It's also not that ridiculous for Thompson to have traded up so much considering how cheap it was to trade up.

These are the trades that Thompson made:
Gave up 123 to turn 59 into 51
Gave up 163 to turn 90 into 62
Gave up 224 and 235 to turn 197 into 163.

So Thompson made one pick on day 1, two picks on day 2, and ultimately only lost one of three fourth round picks, his sixth, and two of four seventh round picks.

For some reason, trading up was really cheap this year.

[hoosier]

If the scouting reports that McGinn gathered are to be believed, the two "risks" (Perry and Worthy) have more uncertainty than your average draft pick, who could always turn out to be a Justin Harrell or a Brian Brohm. Rightly or wrongly they both got labeled as lazy lima beans, which means they could get hurt (Harrell), turn out to be overrated (Brohm) OR they could turn out to be Cletidus Hunts. But by the same token, they are clearly more talented (per reports) than Sherman's patented desperation move of trading up to draft a Donnell Washington.

[RashanGary]

It did feel like a Sherman draft.


I think the reason moving up was so cheap is that TT was moving up when there were several players who had similar ratings. Teams will move back if they know they can get a guy they like equally and another pick to boot.

TT wasn't going ape-shit giving up the farm to move up, but he wasn't going to sit back and wait for a WR, TE or FB to fall into his lap. He went up and got the positions he needed and didn't have to pay much for it because most teams aren't as loaded as the Packers and are more willing to move down since they could use any position.

TT shows flexibility.


When TT said he's not his fathers son, but this time he felt it was appropriate, I think he was making a little fun at the people who think they know what he's about. He's about opportunity and adjusts per situation.

[Tony Oday]

And we did not have 12 spots open...

[Patler]

It's also not that ridiculous for Thompson to have traded up so much considering how cheap it was to trade up.

These are the trades that Thompson made:
Gave up 123 to turn 59 into 51
Gave up 163 to turn 90 into 62
Gave up 224 and 235 to turn 197 into 163.

So Thompson made one pick on day 1, two picks on day 2, and ultimately only lost one of three fourth round picks, his sixth, and two of four seventh round picks.

For some reason, trading up was really cheap this year.

Considering that he had #163 to start with, traded it away and then got it back again in another trade; at the end of the draft, the net change from all of his dealings can be summarized as follows:

He gave up #59, #90, #123, #197, #224 and #235,
He received #51 and #62,

[denverYooper]

While the probability of any single one of these players flopping might be higher, the chances that at least one of them improves the pass rush as a whole is very good. They threw a whole pile of guys at the one glaring problem.

My guess is that being on a championship caliber team with a QB in his prime will bring out the best in some of them, too.

[Smidgeon]

Considering that he had #163 to start with, traded it away and then got it back again in another trade; at the end of the draft, the net change from all of his dealings can be summarized as follows:

He gave up #59, #90, #123, #197, #224 and #235,
He received #51 and #62,

So with the trade value chart:

He gave up 310 + 140 + 49 + 12.6 + 2 = 513.6
For 390 + 284 = 674

Which means that he gained 160.4 in trades, a value of the #86 selection--the 22nd selection in Round 3. Sounds like good trading to me.

[Lurker64]

Considering that he had #163 to start with, traded it away and then got it back again in another trade; at the end of the draft, the net change from all of his dealings can be summarized as follows:

He gave up #59, #90, #123, #197, #224 and #235,
He received #51 and #62,

Which, by the chart is 390 + 284 for 310 + 140 + 49 + 13.6 + 3+ 1.9. So 674 for 517.5. TT got the equivalent of the 87th pick in the draft for free. It's highly unusual to come out this far ahead when you trade up three times and never trade down.

Generally the team who initiates the trade ends up with the short end (i.e. we want to trade down/up) so it's possible that the media is overplaying the "Thompson did what he needed to" angle, since it's conceivable that he just picked up the phone and agreed to three lopsided deals in his favor. Though, it seemed consistently that trading down was cheaper than usual this year, I wonder why.

[Patler]

Personally, the "chart" values do not mean a lot to me, but then, again, I refuse to accept that one guy is unsuited for LT and another is fine just because his arms are 1/2" longer, but there are those who make a big deal over it. Basically, TT gave up a bunch of low round picks, who, Driver, Tauscher and Wells not withstanding, are not likely to ever contribute significantly. In return he gained an extra pick at a level where it is much more likely that a player will contribute soon.

A few years ago, it was quite likely that a keen talent evaluator would find some 6th and 7th round picks who were better than the bottom 10-12 guys on the roster. After doing that for 5 or 6 years, it becomes more difficult and less beneficial to try and improve the bottom of the roster. Now, it is necessary to tweak the top of the roster as much as possible; so extra high picks are valuable.

[Lurker64]

Personally, the "chart" values do not mean a lot to me

I'm not trying to convince you to buy into the chart, but historically the value chart was a pretty good indicator of what teams would consider fair value for trades outside of the high first round. It's just interesting that this year, for whatever reason, teams were allowed to trade up for much less value than they could have in previous years.

In the 2010 draft it cost Thompson pick #122 in order to turn the #86 pick into the #71 pick.

In the 2012 draft, it cost Thompson pick #163 in order to turn the #90 pick into the #62 pick.

This is odd. Last friday Thompson was able to start with a worse pick, give up less, and end up with a better pick than he was able to do two years earlier. One might think that in the former case he gave up more because he initiated the trade, and in the latter case he gave up less because New England initiated the trade. But if you look at trades in the 2012 compared to their theoretical value against the chart, the team trading up consistently did better than they theoretically should have been able to do.

So something is going on here. Potentially there's a paradigm shift and other teams are becoming more interested in trading down. Potentially teams perceived the depth in this draft such that trading down was especially valuable. Potentially the new CBA has changed the value of picks and a new chart needs to be divined in order to model this (though that's unlikely since salaries for 2nd and later round picks really haven't changed much.)

[Smidgeon]

Which, by the chart is 390 + 284 for 310 + 140 + 49 + 13.6 + 3+ 1.9. So 674 for 517.5. TT got the equivalent of the 87th pick in the draft for free. It's highly unusual to come out this far ahead when you trade up three times and never trade down.

Generally the team who initiates the trade ends up with the short end (i.e. we want to trade down/up) so it's possible that the media is overplaying the "Thompson did what he needed to" angle, since it's conceivable that he just picked up the phone and agreed to three lopsided deals in his favor. Though, it seemed consistently that trading down was cheaper than usual this year, I wonder why.

Ha! Beat ya to it!