McGinnn ""THOMPSON ROLLS DICE IN DRAFT""

[Patler]

I'm not trying to convince you to buy into the chart, but historically the value chart was a pretty good indicator of what teams would consider fair value for trades outside of the high first round. It's just interesting that this year, for whatever reason, teams were allowed to trade up for much less value than they could have in previous years.

In the 2010 draft it cost Thompson pick #122 in order to turn the #86 pick into the #71 pick.

In the 2012 draft, it cost Thompson pick #163 in order to turn the #90 pick into the #62 pick.

This is odd. Last friday Thompson was able to start with a worse pick, give up less, and end up with a better pick than he was able to do two years earlier. One might think that in the former case he gave up more because he initiated the trade, and in the latter case he gave up less because New England initiated the trade. But if you look at trades in the 2012 compared to their theoretical value against the chart, the team trading up consistently did better than they theoretically should have been able to do.

So something is going on here. Potentially there's a paradigm shift and other teams are becoming more interested in trading down. Potentially teams perceived the depth in this draft such that trading down was especially valuable. Potentially the new CBA has changed the value of picks and a new chart needs to be divined in order to model this (though that's unlikely since salaries for 2nd and later round picks really haven't changed much.)

Yes, I realize all that, but a lot depends on who TT was dealing with each year, what he had to offer and what his trade partner was hoping to accomplish as well. Each team's available salary cap also comes into play. One team might be willing to give up a lot of "chart points" for a lot of reasons.

The "change" this year doesn't show the need for a revised chart, if anything it shows that competent GMs don't need artificial values from a chart to tell them whether or not to make a trade. If it makes sense to them for their purposes, they will do it, regardless of what the chart tells them to do.

[Scott Campbell]

Yes, I realize all that, but a lot depends on who TT was dealing with each year, what he had to offer and what his trade partner was hoping to accomplish as well. Each team's available salary cap also comes into play. One team might be willing to give up a lot of "chart points" for a lot of reasons.

The "change" this year doesn't show the need for a revised chart, if anything it shows that competent GMs don't need artificial values from a chart to tell them whether or not to make a trade. If it makes sense to them for their purposes, they will do it, regardless of what the chart tells them to do.

I think the chart serves the purpose of providing a baseline. But nothing is written in stone.

[KYPack]

There is a lot of strength in the Packer scouting organization. Thompson mines the intelligence gathered by his deep scouting talents and then leverages it to create his own:

Board with unique evaluations of the available talent

Value of all players which is re-calculated for each draft.

The guy then maps out a strategy tailored for his team only. When he took over, trading up was the slick strategy. TT started trading down and only trading up in special situations. Other teams seem to follow his lead and he goes back to trading up.

The guy obviously spends massive amounts of time mapping out a strategic plan for each draft. He also adjusts the whole works depending on trends created by the dynamics of the draft.

He's a pretty slick fucker.

[Pugger]

It did feel like a Sherman draft.


I think the reason moving up was so cheap is that TT was moving up when there were several players who had similar ratings. Teams will move back if they know they can get a guy they like equally and another pick to boot.

TT wasn't going ape-shit giving up the farm to move up, but he wasn't going to sit back and wait for a WR, TE or FB to fall into his lap. He went up and got the positions he needed and didn't have to pay much for it because most teams aren't as loaded as the Packers and are more willing to move down since they could use any position.

TT shows flexibility.


When TT said he's not his fathers son, but this time he felt it was appropriate, I think he was making a little fun at the people who think they know what he's about. He's about opportunity and adjusts per situation.

At least TT didn't move up in this draft to pick a punter...

[Fritz]

There is a lot of strength in the Packer scouting organization. Thompson mines the intelligence gathered by his deep scouting talents and then leverages it to create his own:

Board with unique evaluations of the available talent

Value of all players which is re-calculated for each draft.

The guy then maps out a strategy tailored for his team only. When he took over, trading up was the slick strategy. TT started trading down and only trading up in special situations. Other teams seem to follow his lead and he goes back to trading up.

The guy obviously spends massive amounts of time mapping out a strategic plan for each draft. He also adjusts the whole works depending on trends created by the dynamics of the draft.

He's a pretty slick fucker.

This is why this did not feel like a Sherman draft. I'mn guessing Thompson's draft board looks rather different, once you get to round three or so, than most boards.

I think Patler is correct, too - this is not the same team Thompson took over; the need to upgrade the bottom of the roster with a lot of low-round picks is less because the bottom of the roster is stronger now. And the chances of finding a starter-type guy are better earlier than later.

[Smidgeon]

There is a lot of strength in the Packer scouting organization. Thompson mines the intelligence gathered by his deep scouting talents and then leverages it to create his own:

Board with unique evaluations of the available talent

Value of all players which is re-calculated for each draft.

The guy then maps out a strategy tailored for his team only. When he took over, trading up was the slick strategy. TT started trading down and only trading up in special situations. Other teams seem to follow his lead and he goes back to trading up.

The guy obviously spends massive amounts of time mapping out a strategic plan for each draft. He also adjusts the whole works depending on trends created by the dynamics of the draft.

He's a pretty slick fucker.

Good observation. Glad dude's drafting for Green Bay. Repped.

[Guiness]

It did feel like a Sherman draft.


I think the reason moving up was so cheap is that TT was moving up when there were several players who had similar ratings. Teams will move back if they know they can get a guy they like equally and another pick to boot.

TT wasn't going ape-shit giving up the farm to move up, but he wasn't going to sit back and wait for a WR, TE or FB to fall into his lap. He went up and got the positions he needed and didn't have to pay much for it because most teams aren't as loaded as the Packers and are more willing to move down since they could use any position.

TT shows flexibility.


When TT said he's not his fathers son, but this time he felt it was appropriate, I think he was making a little fun at the people who think they know what he's about. He's about opportunity and adjusts per situation.

Good observation, and that might be what we saw.

TT made no bones about his draft board having multiple players rated on the same level, and he was willing to move to the tail end of that level and pick up any of the players so rated. Maybe his strategy this time around was to move to the head of the level to get the player rated that way, but also the position he wanted. A subtle twist, and maybe not maximizing value, because you're chasing the draft instead of letting it come to you - previously he would've let other GMs pick and if they grabbed players below the level they pushed more to you - and that doesn't happen when you move up. Still, it's hard to fault it, and I think other GMs (Holmgren excepted!) were zigging in the TT fashion, so he zagged.