Tweet
There has been a lot of speculation about the moving parts of the Packer defense what with all the new toys they've added and a bunch of discussion on what this year will look like. I'm going to give my speculation right here for how I see it going down. The Packers are a 3-4 base defense but they spend nearly 3/4 of snaps playing something else. For the last three seasons including Woodson's defensive player of the year season and the superbowl season that has primarily been a 2-4 defense which looks like this:
Why were the Packers so successful with this formation? Well because they actually run multiple versions. Turn's out when the Packers want to stop the run they are among the best in the NFL. The 2-4 actually works on that principle--the Packers are so good against the run that Dom invites offenses to try it. It works for a couple of reasons but mainly Charles Woodson. Good schemes put players in a position to be successful and this scheme is built to make Woodson a star by inventing a position for him. Schematically he counts as an extra DB, but in reality he's as good as a LB when playing near the line. Against the run our 2-4 can be much like a 4-3, if you imagine both DE's standing up and being called OLB's and Woodson being an OLB but being called a CB. Really Dom took the Packers' biggest strength, stopping the run, and used it to create a well rounded defense by putting run stuffing players in a pass stopping formation. The perfect Dom Capers three and out goes like this:
1st and 10: The Packers bring out their 2-4 with Pickett and Raji as the down lineman. The offense sees the formation, audibles to a run and gains 6 yards.
2nd and 4: The Packers now bring out their 3-4, sending Sam Shields to the sideline and replace him with CJ Wilson. The offense just ran for an easy 6 yards, they're going to try it again but are now stuffed for a 1 yard gain.
3rd and 3: This is a passing down and distance so the Packers go back to the 2-4, this time with Raji and Wynn as the down lineman. Tramon and Sam move up to the line to press. Pressure and coverage yield an incomplete pass. Offense punts.
So why did the defense suck last year? That 3rd down scenario stopped happening. Tramon had a shoulder injury and was no longer effective in press coverage--so bad even that they stopped asking him to try. The interior pass rush was diminished. But part of it was the offense was just that the league started to catch on, and that daring teams to run was no longer effective when that team is down by 24.
The Peyton Manning Colts are an example of a team with a potent offense that it built its defense to sell out against the pass. Their defensive line is small and fast, their coverage is a smothering tampa-2 shell. They sold out vs the pass a little too hard though where teams would and could run if for no other reason than to shorten the game, keep the ball out of Peyton's hands and give them a better chance at an upset.
This draft makes me think the Packers are about to make another change and field a defense that is less balanced but more suitable for playing with the lead. We're going to sell out against the pass. We drafted, a pure pass-rusher in Perry, we drafted a pure 1-gap style DT in Daniels, we got a LB who excels on 3rd down, and a corner who excels with his back to the basket which is a perfect skill set for those non-aggressive smothering styles of defense. I think what we'll be looking a lot more Colts-like but it sure looks like we've now got the personnel to both stuff the run or play with the lead. Early in games we probably won't look that different, we'll dare teams to run effectively stop that and build a lead. The difference is that when team's are forced to pass into the teeth of our defense, we'll have some serious upgrades. Here's a 2012 perfect 3-and-out:
1st and 10: The Packers bring out the 2-4, Bush replaces Shields, Pickett and Worthy/Raji/Muir will be the two down linemen. In other words our best 2-gap players will maul and control the guards, and hopefully draw a double team. Perry will be playing in place of Walden on the right side. We'll dare the defense to run and protect against the big play. Since this really won't change, and this isn't where the packers were desperate for improvement.
2nd and 4: The Packers have a new look for 2nd and 4. The Packers put Perry with his hand down outside the LT and make him responsible for just the C-gap, lined up next to him is Worthy/Daniels who responsible for just the B-gap, Raji lines up over the center and plays 2-gap, Pickett lines up over the RT and plays 2-gap, Clay lines up outside the TE and drops into coverage, blitzes, whatever. This is the 4-3 hybrid some of you have been describing recently as being piloted by the Patriots of late. Essentially this is a 4-3 to one side of the field and a 3-4 to the other side. It fits the Packers current personnel arguably better than our own traditional 3-4 now as we have exactly 2 dominant 2-gap players, Worthy who is at his best shooting a gap and locating the football, and Perry who can put his hand down and go or get outside and contain. The Packers can shift into and out of this at any time to get dream scenarios... like Clay Isolated on a TE, Raji isolated on the Center.
3rd and 3: The Pack gets Sam Shields back on the field for a 2-4. Raji/Worthy/Daniels/Wynn will all get opportunities, keeping all of them on a pitch count and preventing everyone from wearing down. Clay and Nick pin their ears back from a 2 point stance. Woodson will be moved around more to Safety and ILB in order to get Hayward on the field covering the slot. Those two are such a ball-hawking presence in the slot that it should lead to another season on excessive turnovers. I think the shelves have been sufficiently restocked to have this package be a strength once again. Once Woodson is no longer the play-making monster of this defense, the Packers will have the versatility of 1 and 2 gap specialists to mold it around someone else but in this position we've created for him it would't surprise me if that's later rather than sooner.
Why were the Packers so successful with this formation? Well because they actually run multiple versions. Turn's out when the Packers want to stop the run they are among the best in the NFL. The 2-4 actually works on that principle--the Packers are so good against the run that Dom invites offenses to try it. It works for a couple of reasons but mainly Charles Woodson. Good schemes put players in a position to be successful and this scheme is built to make Woodson a star by inventing a position for him. Schematically he counts as an extra DB, but in reality he's as good as a LB when playing near the line. Against the run our 2-4 can be much like a 4-3, if you imagine both DE's standing up and being called OLB's and Woodson being an OLB but being called a CB. Really Dom took the Packers' biggest strength, stopping the run, and used it to create a well rounded defense by putting run stuffing players in a pass stopping formation. The perfect Dom Capers three and out goes like this:
1st and 10: The Packers bring out their 2-4 with Pickett and Raji as the down lineman. The offense sees the formation, audibles to a run and gains 6 yards.
2nd and 4: The Packers now bring out their 3-4, sending Sam Shields to the sideline and replace him with CJ Wilson. The offense just ran for an easy 6 yards, they're going to try it again but are now stuffed for a 1 yard gain.
3rd and 3: This is a passing down and distance so the Packers go back to the 2-4, this time with Raji and Wynn as the down lineman. Tramon and Sam move up to the line to press. Pressure and coverage yield an incomplete pass. Offense punts.
So why did the defense suck last year? That 3rd down scenario stopped happening. Tramon had a shoulder injury and was no longer effective in press coverage--so bad even that they stopped asking him to try. The interior pass rush was diminished. But part of it was the offense was just that the league started to catch on, and that daring teams to run was no longer effective when that team is down by 24.
The Peyton Manning Colts are an example of a team with a potent offense that it built its defense to sell out against the pass. Their defensive line is small and fast, their coverage is a smothering tampa-2 shell. They sold out vs the pass a little too hard though where teams would and could run if for no other reason than to shorten the game, keep the ball out of Peyton's hands and give them a better chance at an upset.
This draft makes me think the Packers are about to make another change and field a defense that is less balanced but more suitable for playing with the lead. We're going to sell out against the pass. We drafted, a pure pass-rusher in Perry, we drafted a pure 1-gap style DT in Daniels, we got a LB who excels on 3rd down, and a corner who excels with his back to the basket which is a perfect skill set for those non-aggressive smothering styles of defense. I think what we'll be looking a lot more Colts-like but it sure looks like we've now got the personnel to both stuff the run or play with the lead. Early in games we probably won't look that different, we'll dare teams to run effectively stop that and build a lead. The difference is that when team's are forced to pass into the teeth of our defense, we'll have some serious upgrades. Here's a 2012 perfect 3-and-out:
1st and 10: The Packers bring out the 2-4, Bush replaces Shields, Pickett and Worthy/Raji/Muir will be the two down linemen. In other words our best 2-gap players will maul and control the guards, and hopefully draw a double team. Perry will be playing in place of Walden on the right side. We'll dare the defense to run and protect against the big play. Since this really won't change, and this isn't where the packers were desperate for improvement.
2nd and 4: The Packers have a new look for 2nd and 4. The Packers put Perry with his hand down outside the LT and make him responsible for just the C-gap, lined up next to him is Worthy/Daniels who responsible for just the B-gap, Raji lines up over the center and plays 2-gap, Pickett lines up over the RT and plays 2-gap, Clay lines up outside the TE and drops into coverage, blitzes, whatever. This is the 4-3 hybrid some of you have been describing recently as being piloted by the Patriots of late. Essentially this is a 4-3 to one side of the field and a 3-4 to the other side. It fits the Packers current personnel arguably better than our own traditional 3-4 now as we have exactly 2 dominant 2-gap players, Worthy who is at his best shooting a gap and locating the football, and Perry who can put his hand down and go or get outside and contain. The Packers can shift into and out of this at any time to get dream scenarios... like Clay Isolated on a TE, Raji isolated on the Center.
3rd and 3: The Pack gets Sam Shields back on the field for a 2-4. Raji/Worthy/Daniels/Wynn will all get opportunities, keeping all of them on a pitch count and preventing everyone from wearing down. Clay and Nick pin their ears back from a 2 point stance. Woodson will be moved around more to Safety and ILB in order to get Hayward on the field covering the slot. Those two are such a ball-hawking presence in the slot that it should lead to another season on excessive turnovers. I think the shelves have been sufficiently restocked to have this package be a strength once again. Once Woodson is no longer the play-making monster of this defense, the Packers will have the versatility of 1 and 2 gap specialists to mold it around someone else but in this position we've created for him it would't surprise me if that's later rather than sooner.
Comment