Packers versus Bears Math problem

[sharpe1027]

If that were true then the chances of them winning one of six games would be greater than 100%!

Real probability is 100% - 0.8⁴%

That would be 99.5904%. Way to high. I think it is actually: 100 - 100*(.8⁴) = 59.04%

[pbmax]

Its (4/5)^4 or 40.96% chance they win one game of four.

Its not 1- or 100- since there is no replacement here. Its the same odds, same conditions each time. There is no equivalent to taking away a card from the deck.

[sharpe1027]

Its (4/5)^4 or 40.96% chance they win one game of four.

Its not 1- or 100- since there is no replacement here. Its the same odds, same conditions each time. There is no equivalent to taking away a card from the deck.

Isn't 40.96% the chance that the Packers win all 4? 4/5 for the first, 4/5 for the second, 4/5 for the third, 4/5 for the fourth -> odds that the Packers win all 4 is 4/5*4/5*4/5*4/5...the chance that the Bears win at least one is the inverse of that.

If you were doing a card from the deck it would be 4/5 * 3/4 * 2/3 *1/2, right?

[Freak Out]

LOL.

[hoosier]

Same odds each time, yes, but you have to look at the problem (what are the odds of Chicago winning at least one) as the reverse probability of GB winning all four. The probabilty of that happening is 80% for the first game, and for the second game it's 80% of the 80% in which they won the first game, and for the third it's 80% of the 64% of the time they won the first two, and so on, which finally makes 40.96%. If that is the probability of GB winning all four, the probabiliy of Chi taking at least one is 100-40.96.

[smuggler]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwjQaJ5xt1o

[Fritz]

Wow, Smuggler. Usually I watch youtube to see 16 year old boys lighting their crotches on fire, or to see slinky women in high heels and short tight dresses.

I'm feeling all edumucated and righteous after watching that youtube video you posted. Thanks!

[Iron Mike]

Wow, Smuggler. Usually I watch youtube to see 16 year old boys lighting their crotches on fire, or to see slinky women in high heels and short tight dresses.

I'm feeling all edumucated and righteous after watching that youtube video you posted. Thanks!

[Fritz]

Oh hell yeah!

But wait...what's the probability that Drew Barrymore will do that with me?

Hmm....P(A) + P(B) = 1. Thus, let's see...plug in .0000413....times that by a negative integer.....subtract from the right side.....mmm.....wait, almost done........then determine the co-efficient of her boobs......hmmmm......let "B" stand for flight times from Detroit to LA......hmmmm......okay......

Aha. The probability is 0%.

[MJZiggy]

You missed the whole thread I put in the Romper Room about her getting married...The probability is 0%.

[LP]

You missed the whole thread I put in the Romper Room about her getting married...The probability is 0%.

Yeah but...she's a model and an actress. The divorce papers are probably drawn up, just waiting for dates and signatures.

[sharpe1027]

Oh hell yeah!

But wait...what's the probability that Drew Barrymore will do that with me?

Hmm....P(A) + P(B) = 1. Thus, let's see...plug in .0000413....times that by a negative integer.....subtract from the right side.....mmm.....wait, almost done........then determine the co-efficient of her boobs......hmmmm......let "B" stand for flight times from Detroit to LA......hmmmm......okay......

Aha. The probability is 0%.

You just need to get cast in a leading role with her. How good is your acting?

[ThunderDan]

You just need to get cast in a leading role with her. How good is your acting?

Fritz could star in Porkies but that's about all!

[SkinBasket]

God damn we got some math retards around here.

[sharpe1027]

God damn we got some math retards around here.

Why? What do you think the probability is that Drew Barrymore will do that with Fritz?