Drew Brees Going to Get Paid A Whole Lotta Cash

[smuggler]

The Saints have $16.7 million in cap space this season (14.5 of which is already slotted for Brees based on the Saints' application of the franchise tag). In 2013 they have $12.9 million available as of now.

Brees wants $20 mil per season. He wants as many years of that as the Saints will give him. I don't think he would accept less than 4.

YEAR-BASE-BONUS
2012-$3.0m-$11.5m
2013-$1.0m-$11.5m
2014-$18.0m-$11.5m
2015-$20.0m-$11.5m

4 year Total: $88.0 million // $22.0 million per year

The problem here is that the Saints are so strapped for cash in the next two seasons that they really have to backload the contract's base salary segment. (Keep in mind this deal is already $46million guaranteed, which I believe would be close to a record, and that's a very high number considering it's only four years. In case you were wondering, teams cannot unevenly distribute the pro-rated salary cap number from a signing bonus.) In a 4 year deal, even if they lower his 2013 base salary to $1mil, they can't give him a signing bonus larger than $46 million. And this is academic because if they did that, they would not have enough cap space, as of today, to field a complete 53 man roster in 2013.

The Saints can't offer Brees more than a 4 year contract because their window closes in about 1-2 years (and remember this season is basically already a wash), and Brees is expected to be "done" in about 3 years, as he approaches his 37th birthday, anyway.

Financially, it might make the most sense for the Saints to *not* sign Brees long term, but franchise him for 2012 @14.5mil and then let him walk in 2013 (they do not have cap room to franchise him @22million next season, barring cuts)

[Guiness]

Well broken down Smuggler. You make a pretty valid argument for them to not offer him a long term deal.
I'd guess it's more a PR decision than an on field one.
Given all this, you have to wonder why they even want him this at franchise pay this year if they aren't going to retain him next, given that, as you said, the season is a wash.

[smuggler]

They would be glad to sign him for 4 yrs, but the cost could be pretty prohibitive. Another team that's up against the cap a bit is the Eagles, who have less than $4million in cap space in 2014.

[pbmax]

Isn't the franchise tender for QB $16.3 million in 2012?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/22/brees-saints-playing-franchise-tender-chicken/

Last reasonable summation of the parties position I can find.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/05/gap-between-saints-brees-smaller-than-reported/

[smuggler]

It was 14.5 when we franchised Flynn, but I just took that number and added their cap space which is currently $2.2 million for 2012. If the tender offer to Brees was $16.3, then they'd have 18.5mil total to work with this season instead of $16.7, which helps a bit.

[pbmax]

Just saw in two places (PFT and ESPN) that Peytons new deal averages $20 mil per year. Are they rounding or is that the true average?

PFT has a story that Bud Adams was willing to pay Peyton $25 mil per to get him.

Brees might break $20mil/yr even if it takes until next year.

[Pugger]

I thought I heard last night on BSPN that if NO and Brees don't have a new contract signed before the week is out he will NOT sign the tender and will hold out of camp. More fun days in the Big Easy.

[pbmax]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8037165/nfl-why-drew-brees-new-deal

Andrew Brandt wrote this and it provides the relevant details about comparable contracts. He expects a signing before the July 16th deadline for:

Deadlines spur action, and the deadline in this case, due to tag requirements, is July 16. I expect the deal to be done between July 10-15 with a $20 million APY, between $50 million and $52 million guaranteed and $60 million to $62 million over the first three years.

He thinks they are stuck between $19 (NO) and $20 (Condon/Brees) mil per year. However, that seems small enough that there would wiggle room on guaranteed money or money in first three years to help bridge the gap. So I would hazard a guess that they are stuck on two of the points, not just average per year.

[pbmax]

I thought I heard last night on BSPN that if NO and Brees don't have a new contract signed before the week is out he will NOT sign the tender and will hold out of camp. More fun days in the Big Easy.

Yep.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8153671/drew-brees-new-orleans-saints-skip-training-camp-contract-sources-say

[smuggler]

If Brandt's numbers are correct, the Saints will be in salary cap hell for the next 3 years or so.

[Freak Out]

40 million in year one...wow.

[Guiness]

40 million in year one...wow.

Here are some of the early details.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/13/brees-gets-37-million-to-sign/

Looks like a 3-yr, $60 million deal, with some flexibility to the team.

By 2015, when the new TV deals from 2014 hit the cap, Brees cap number will be $26.4 million.

So if the TV money jump isn't big enough, he restructures or is released. There are sizeable guarantees that his early in the league year, so if they decide to let him go at any time, it will be well before FA starts. A rough calculation ($37m signing bonus divided by 5, the result multiplied by 2) shows that the Saints would take about a $15m hit against the cap to release him that year. The contract would average $20.3m over the three years if that happened.

[gbgary]

I hope a-rod doesn't hold us up like that.

[easy cheesy]

40 million in year one...wow.

That'll buy a lotta ass, Hurricanes ala Pat O'Briens, PoBoy's and Beignets at Cafe DuMonde... Good Times...

[smuggler]

He gets $40 million this year. Then he gets another $15 million roster bonus next year, and there's no possible way for them to cut him before he gets it, mathematically. Therefore, it's at least 55 million guaranteed. They are officially in cap hell for at least 2 years. I expect they'll probably cut Vilma now.