Replacement Referees and Home Field Advantage: It’s Been Almost Eight Points a Game Through Two Week

[denverYooper]

The p value on the ANOVA is greater than 0.5. Nothing to see here.

Yeah, it's high. Did you run it or just make a good guess? I got 0.42 using "regular v replacement" as the treatment and points as the response from his numbers.

[ThunderDan]

I think we know why the NFL moved the 3:15 games to 3:25. The game is definitely getting slowed down. However, because the NFL reviews all scoring plays, and all turnover plays, the odds are against the outcome of a game obviously turning due to a bad call. The old refs need to make a deal and get back, because they don't have much leverage. Steve Young was right. Fans may complain about the replacement refs, but they won't stop watching or going to the games. As long as the money keeps pouring in, the owners don't really care that much who the refs are.

That's not true. In the Denver-ATL game a defensive holding was called on ATL. The refs marked off a 10 yard penalty.

On the next play Peyton thows a 20+ yard TD on an amazing catch that they called out of bounds but was overturned on replay. Denver had already used its 2 challenges because of previous calls and lost one. If it hadn't happened in the last 2 minutes of the half it wouldn't have been a TD.

Now back to the real story. The WR caught the ball 3 yards into the endzone and was knocked out of bounds. If the penalty on the previous play had been correctly enforced for 5 yards instead of 10 its 1st and goal on the 2 with 6 seconds left until half time.

The refs fuck up on enforcing the penalty completely changed the game.

[mraynrand]

Yeah, it's high. Did you run it or just make a good guess? I got 0.42 using "regular v replacement" as the treatment and points as the response from his numbers.

I just made a guess. Honestly, The 2009 number, and the few numbers pretty much convinced me that finding a trend wasn't going to happen. You're gonna need more data.

Anecdotally, I saw a couple of incidents where I was almost certain the official was being influenced, if not by the crowd, at least by the Coaches.
I suspect that the reason a lot of flags are coming out late though is a combination of uncertainty and a deliberate attempt to make sure they get the call right (as in, you don't have to throw the flag right away, think about the call, then throw it).

Theses officials are untrained/less trained - generally that's just exactly how they look. Uncertain people are more influenced by their surroundings.

[sharpe1027]

True, but nothing really is.

What about brain science?

[pbmax]

That's not true. In the Denver-ATL game a defensive holding was called on ATL. The refs marked off a 10 yard penalty.

On the next play Peyton thows a 20+ yard TD on an amazing catch that they called out of bounds but was overturned on replay. Denver had already used its 2 challenges because of previous calls and lost one. If it hadn't happened in the last 2 minutes of the half it wouldn't have been a TD.

Now back to the real story. The WR caught the ball 3 yards into the endzone and was knocked out of bounds. If the penalty on the previous play had been correctly enforced for 5 yards instead of 10 its 1st and goal on the 2 with 6 seconds left until half time.

The refs fuck up on enforcing the penalty completely changed the game.

Don't forget the fourth TO Seattle got. That was WHILE consulting with HeadPhone Ref and presumably Replay Ref, Replay Ref Supervisor, League Office Ref, Goodell and Judge Judy.

More is NOT better in a short period of time. Short being relative in the case of the replacement refs, something shy of an epoch.

That fourth TO got them another planned shot the endzone while in the red zone.

[RashanGary]

You know, I was going on my merry way, ignoring this bull shit.

The refs are all thrown in there with no experience. It's not like there is some head ref who can lead the group. It's pure chaos.


But now it's out of hand.

I hope they get better though. I'm pulling for them, just because it would suck to get thrown in that spot, where they're doing their best and getting torn apart for it.

[denverYooper]

I'm sure they'll get better throughout the season because they'll be putting in the work, and I wonder how long it will be before people don't complain about them any more than regular officials.

At some point the leverage that the regular refs (thought they) had is going to be totally gone.

[pbmax]

Well, this might be a tipping point. Goodell and the NFLRA might be costing some businessmen some money. Just the kind of arbitrators this disagreement needs:

http://deadspin.com/5944955/the-replacement-refs-are-now-affecting-vegas-betting-lines

[Fritz]

I find it humorous and ironic that we - me included - bitched and moaned so much the last few years about the Ed Hochulis of the world. And now we pine for him.

[Harlan Huckleby]

And now we pine for him.

Ed Hochulis has got some guns, I'm sure you are not the only one pining for him, and there's nothing wrong with that.

I was radio slumming today at the Jim Rome show, and he made funny speculations about how pumped-up Ed Hoculis will be with all this time off to lift weights.

[denverYooper]

Not sure about identical calls. I read somewhere that Pass Interference was up but Illegal Contacts were down. The reasoning of a former ref was that most people can identify pass interference across levels of the sport. However, illegal contact in the NFL is far more restrictive on DBs and no one can know the ins and outs of it in two months.

I heard an interview with Chad Millman of ESPN the Magazine. He indicated that it looks like aggressive passing teams are gaining a bit of an advantage. I haven't seen that quantified anywhere yet but that would fit here.

[mraynrand]

I think the Packers should play all their games at home, except when they play the Giants.

[denverYooper]

Well, this might be a tipping point. Goodell and the NFLRA might be costing some businessmen some money. Just the kind of arbitrators this disagreement needs:

http://deadspin.com/5944955/the-repl...-betting-lines

Although the article also states that the betting business is booming this year, probably because bettors feel like they can take advantage of the replacement refs. It doesn't say whether or not the sports books are losing money on the incoming bets... My gut tells me that, though it is more difficult for the bookmakers to set the lines, they are making more money than ever because a lot of people are overestimating the effect.

[mraynrand]

I find it humorous and ironic that we - me included - bitched and moaned so much the last few years about the Ed Hochulis of the world. And now we pine for him.

Speak for yourself, although, I do have to admit, he's kinda hunkalicious.

[Teamcheez1]

I heard an interview with Chad Millman of ESPN the Magazine. He indicated that it looks like aggressive passing teams are gaining a bit of an advantage. I haven't seen that quantified anywhere yet but that would fit here.

It doesn't seem to be helping us.