Time to face fact

[denverYooper]

JSO has gone full in on the Packers as not wanting to win badly, no fire in belly. Its the worst coverage I have ever seen. McGinn's column is as much character assassination as it is analysis or game story.

Andrew Luck apparently has an indomitable will to win. So does Reggie Wayne. He apparently sees no link between the two.

He also blows the analysis of the second to last play in my way of thinking. Rodgers immediately was calling for another play or package from the sideline after the completion to Cobb with a gesture that looked like he was crossing himself. McCarthy was looking at the playsheet trying to find a play. I am not positive, but I thought at the time that the play and the personnel got on the field late. McGinn thinks Rodgers blew the timing, but I think McCarthy was thinking FG and Rodgers wanted a play. But they time they came to agreement, they were short on play clock.

I woke up thinking this morning that is was funny Cobb didn't take more yards on that last reception. Not that it would have been a great decision given the clock but there looked to be a lot of real estate up the sideline for the taking and he was clearly taking risks and trying to make something happen on his kickoff returns. On a day when borderline reckless play was winning, and Cobb was willing, it was just a funny moment for him to let up.

[Patler]

I don't think anyone had a problem with McCarthy's offense a year ago when records were being set and they were the best passing offense in the league. NFL coaches are really smart at football, and they figure shit out eventually, McCarthy has been done figured out, and for some reason the talent has regressed in 2012. That doesn't mean that the Packers can't get hot and go on a run, but they have to figure it out. McCarthy needs to go back to the drawing board and take some of the control back to his offense.

Exactly. McCarthy spent the off-season "tweaking" , but not changing, an offense that was a step ahead of most (not all) defensive game plans. DCs around the league spent the off-season studying those who had some success slowing the Packers in 2011, and came up with their own formulas, all of which have some common threads, rough up the WRs at the line and play the safeties deep. MM's tweaks to the offense, (mostly just the creative use of Cobb) have not been a match for the DCs game plans to stop the Packers.

It's not surprising that James Jones is emerging this year. He will fight toe-to-toe with DBs and win more than he loses. He makes the difficult catches in crowds. Nelson has been a bit of a disappointment so far, not taking the physical play as well as I expected. Finley should be part of the answerto defenses this year, but has been much too inconsistent.

IF MM holds true to form, nothing much will change until the bye week, which is when he typical self-scouts his own team and makes changes.

No one should be too surprised by this start. (2-3 doesn't surprise me, but losing to the Colts was unexpected.) They have played a lot of good teams, and MM's teams are relatively slow starting most years. The O-line is a leading culprit in their slow starts. That has been my one consistent rant over the years, and has spawned my dissatisfaction with Campen. MM's past season starts:

2006 - 1 and 4
2007 - 4 and 1
2008 - 2 and 3
2009 - 3 and 2; 4 and 4 at midseason
2010 - 3 and 3
2011 - 5 and 0

[denverYooper]

Exactly. McCarthy spent the off-season "tweaking" , but not changing, an offense that was a step ahead of most (not all) defensive game plans. DCs around the league spent the off-season studying those who had some success slowing the Packers in 2011, and came up with their own formulas, all of which have some common threads, rough up the WRs at the line and play the safeties deep. MM's tweaks to the offense, (mostly just the creative use of Cobb) have not been a match for the DCs game plans to stop the Packers.

It's not surprising that James Jones is emerging this year. He will fight toe-to-toe with DBs and win more than he loses. He makes the difficult catches in crowds. Nelson has been a bit of a disappointment so far, not taking the physical play as well as I expected. Finley should be part of the answerto defenses this year, but has been much too inconsistent.

IF MM holds true to form, nothing much will change until the bye week, which is when he typical self-scouts his own team and makes changes.

No one should be too surprised by this start. (2-3 doesn't surprise me, but losing to the Colts was unexpected.) They have played a lot of good teams, and MM's teams are relatively slow starting most years. The O-line is a leading culprit in their slow starts. That has been my one consistent rant over the years, and has spawned my dissatisfaction with Campen. MM's past season starts:

2006 - 1 and 4
2007 - 4 and 1
2008 - 2 and 3
2009 - 3 and 2; 4 and 4 at midseason
2010 - 3 and 3
2011 - 5 and 0

Spot on about the slow start. Last year erased everybody's memories that we all used to complain about the number of sacks and O-line problems through the first 8 games of pretty much every season M3 has coached before last year. It could very well be that the combination of the Packers playing in the Superbowl + the lockout + a slate of weaker defenses converged last year to allow the offense to roll right out of the gate.

What it comes down to is that the Packers aren't a dominant team, they have a tougher schedule this year, and they are once again facing a bit of an identity crisis. I can't remember where I read it but someone (JSO "scout" maybe?) said they thought the Packers would be that team that everyone pronounced dead at 3-5 but then went on to close out 7-1. I didn't think that was too far off but figured that the Rams would be the other loss, not the Colts. Of course, knowing this team, they'll probably go out and beat the Texans and then lose to the Rams.

[Fosco33]

In early Sept - we all predicted records. For me - I saw a 3-3 start (with an 11-5 finish). Albeit - very off on the games (thought we'd lose to Bears/Saints, Beat Seahawks/Colts).

If that holds true - we'll stomp the Rams and be at 3-3 with a very winnable schedule.

Things that concern me:
- Vikes are not easy Ws
- Cards/Rams are better than we hoped - but very beatable still
- Not sure we'll beat the Giants anymore

So - I'm not sure 11-5 is reasonable anymore. I could see 10-6 or 9-7 and then the Seahawk 'loss' may really hurt given the top heavy win/loss ratio of other teams.

[denverYooper]

JSO has gone full in on the Packers as not wanting to win badly, no fire in belly. Its the worst coverage I have ever seen. McGinn's column is as much character assassination as it is analysis or game story.

Andrew Luck apparently has an indomitable will to win. So does Reggie Wayne. He apparently sees no link between the two.

He also blows the analysis of the second to last play in my way of thinking. Rodgers immediately was calling for another play or package from the sideline after the completion to Cobb with a gesture that looked like he was crossing himself. McCarthy was looking at the playsheet trying to find a play. I am not positive, but I thought at the time that the play and the personnel got on the field late. McGinn thinks Rodgers blew the timing, but I think McCarthy was thinking FG and Rodgers wanted a play. But they time they came to agreement, they were short on play clock.

One could also look at it and say that the Colts were aggressive to the point of recklessness. It just paid off yesterday. Luck could have just as easily had 5 INTs and everyone would have said he was careless with the ball.

[pbmax]

Is this really evidence of a tendency to slow start? 2 years well above 500 to start (07,11). 2 years at 500 (or 1 game above, 09 and 10) and two years below 500 (06-well below and 08)? That seems a slow start only if average is slow for this team. These days that might be the case, but I am not sure about 06, 07 and 08.

Overall, that's either 18-13 or if you use the 500 figure for 09, its 19-15.

As for Campen, he definitely has an issue there this year with Saturday and the Guards. But we now know, much to my chagrin, that Colledge was really hurting them in other years and it wasn't just coaching. He is currently hurting the Cardinals, despite their good start, and despite being coached by well respected Russ Grimm. Their O line is a true tire fire. If you saw the Rams/cards game, you recognized Colledge immediately.

We also know that despite Greg Bedard's opinion, real coaching has not elevated Nick MacDonald to starting status on a team that has had a lot of O line flux. So in another blow to my self esteem, we now know Retail Guy had a point about the talent level of the line. Its not that Thompson ignored it, but it took time to assemble top flight talent with a couple of misses thrown in.

The better question is when will Saturday get the protections down with the Guards and RBs? My bet is about the same time M3 adjusts the offense as Patler suggested: the bye week.

You mix trouble up the middle with Rodgers thinking about Newhouse, and he looks exactly like he did in 08 or the worst of 09. Lang has the only prescription for the immediate future.

[Pugger]

I have major issues with McCarthy's offensive strategy. At this point, I'm beginning to think that MM can't accept the fact that the issues are partially his fault. He seems to refuse to adjust his offensive philosophy to match how defenses have adapted to our offense. With the talent we have on offense, there is no reason for us to be having the issues we are having. A lot of this falls on McCarthy, who is supposedly a highly intelligent offensive coach.

We need to run the ball more. Our OL is effective at run blocking if you get them lathered up a little. At this point, the passing game should not incorporate anything longer than a 5 step drop...and the ball has to be out of the QBs hand soon after hitting that 5th step. Stick Ben Affleck back behind the QB at practice holding a FAH Q paddle if need be to teach Rodgers a lesson. I am tired of watching him hold the ball for 8 seconds and take a sack for a 6-9 yard loss, which simply allows the defense to pin their ears back even more the next play. McCarthy better grow some balls and hold his MVP caliber QB in check. I don't think the receivers are playing horribly...they merely are trying to run a bunch of deep routes against defenses that are hanging back because we have completely dumped any portion of the WCO that was still in the playbook.

With the talent on this team, the level of play is an embarrassment. Now we have to go to Houston with the very real threat of being 2-4 if we don't pull our heads out of our asses.

Really?

[Harlan Huckleby]

I think the defense is strong and getting better, they are just finding their way. (Although I think DJ Smith is the soft spot in the middle - once you get the idea that a player is no damn good, you keep seeing evidence to back up your view.)

The offensive line is a mystery. Sherrod and EDS in the wings might be long term upgrades.

[Tony Oday]

I cant believe that against a banged up secondary we didnt employ more 5 WR sets and just torch them with slants. Three step drops nullify pass rushes.

[Tony Oday]

DJ Smith was an embarassment out there yesterday. He found the right holes to plug but didnt attack and make a tackle when he was there.

[Patler]

Is this really evidence of a tendency to slow start?

I think there is a lot of evidence for that. In many of his seasons, second half performances have been much more solid, while early season games are a scramble.

Time and time again we have sat here in the early season wondering if the team will set a new record for most sacks allowed. Same for the ineptness of the running game. Most years both have improved as the season rolls on.

All in all, I prefer that. Recent history has shown that teams like the Packers and Giants (twice) who start slowly but turn it around by during the season, are often in good positions to play well through the playoffs. That said, I think the next three games are looking very crucial, although the NFC North might still be within reach even after a poor start.

The Lions might very well implode. I don't think Schwartz is the stabilizing influence they need.
I expect the Vikings to have one of their common second half swoons.
Could be the year of the Bears again, unless age catches up to their defense and Cutler plays as poorly in critical games as he often has.

[mraynrand]

I cant believe that against a banged up secondary we didnt employ more 5 WR sets and just torch them with slants. Three step drops nullify pass rushes.

The 35 yard patterns give the wideouts more exercise. It's about conditioning in the early season; they'll taper to finish strong.

[Smidgeon]

I cant believe that against a banged up secondary we didnt employ more 5 WR sets and just torch them with slants. Three step drops nullify pass rushes.

Boykin and Jennings were out, and Finley was injured. Would you use Williams as the fifth wide?

[denverYooper]

Exactly. McCarthy spent the off-season "tweaking" , but not changing, an offense that was a step ahead of most (not all) defensive game plans. DCs around the league spent the off-season studying those who had some success slowing the Packers in 2011, and came up with their own formulas, all of which have some common threads, rough up the WRs at the line and play the safeties deep. MM's tweaks to the offense, (mostly just the creative use of Cobb) have not been a match for the DCs game plans to stop the Packers.

I've heard a lot of Patriots analysis lately because the Broncos played them yesterday. One thing that has jumped out is that the Patriots, known for their high powered passing game have been running the ball a lot. Over 50% of the plays going into the game. Not sure what the mix is now but it's moved even further in that direction, as they ran 54 times yesterday as opposed to 33 pass attempts. Belichick has often been one to stay ahead of the curve. I am starting to wonder if he's doing it purposefully because so many defenses are now loaded up to stop the pass, especially against Brady.

[mraynrand]

Take what the defense gives you