TT's 2nd Round Steals: Casey Hayward Edition

[denverYooper]

This from PFF today:

Snapshot: Cornerback Rating



Casey Hayward is tops on their list of corners based on a 140 snap cutoff. Now, I don't think he'll be singled up on Megatron but he sure looks the part of another solid second round selection by Ted.

[pbmax]

Justin!

Time to change your PackerRats handle.

I wonder if the correlation between being a Packer 2nd Round* pick and success is strong enough to earn a larger signing bonus?

* Daryn Colledge not included

[denverYooper]

Huber at Packer Report posted this at some point earlier today:

Thompson's 2nd round selections

(Side note: PFR's query tools keep getting better. I didn't actually re-post his link but just went through their draft tools to build the same query)

[denverYooper]

[denverYooper]

The Jerel Worthy version of this series is a year or two off.

[Fritz]

Okay, outside of Colledge, Brohm, and Lee this is impressive. I think the jury's still out on Neal, and Murphy was looking awfully good until he was hurt.

If I remember correctly that Raji was the ninth overall, Jamaal Reynolds was tenth, and Harrell the sixteenth, then maybe Ted should trade down if he gets a first round pick between numbers ten and sixteen?

[hoosier]

Murphy, Collins, Jackson, Lee, Brohm, Jennings, Neal....TT's second round picks are either busts or injury prone

[Guiness]

Murphy, Collins, Jackson, Lee, Brohm, Jennings, Neal....TT's second round picks are either busts or injury prone

More seriously though, that's a pretty impressive list.

I'd give him no score on Worthy (not enough information), Murphy and Neale. I'm almost tempted to give him a positive score on Murphy, because it certainly looked like he was going to be a success, but ultimately it didn't work out. Neale hasn't done much yet, but there's still the potential.

He gets an obvious positive mark for Collins, Jennings, Nelson, Cobb and Hayward. Hayward's early production gets him into that category, and Antuawn Edwards was a LONG time ago. Also positive for Jackson and Colledge who, despite not having great success with the Packers are still players in the NFL.

Negative marks for Lee and Brohm. Brohm was just a bad pick, I think he panicked a little seeing a guy who a year earlier would've easily went top 10, sitting there at the end of the 2nd. It was an obvious value pick, and he got stung.

edit: just looked up a couple of guys to see where they are. Shocked to see that Lee has started five games for the Raiders this year, and Jackson has seen limited duty in Cleveland - 2 catches for 20 yards. Wiki tells me Jackson got IR'd. And maybe Lee will be a player yet.

[sharpe1027]

Okay, outside of Colledge, Brohm, and Lee this is impressive. I think the jury's still out on Neal, and Murphy was looking awfully good until he was hurt.

If I remember correctly that Raji was the ninth overall, Jamaal Reynolds was tenth, and Harrell the sixteenth, then maybe Ted should trade down if he gets a first round pick between numbers ten and sixteen?

I wouldn't lump Colledge with Brohm and Lee. He was a decent pick even if he eventually got beat out as a starter.

[sharpe1027]

And maybe Lee will be a player yet.

The Raiders team is where players go to die.

[Patler]

Murphy is neither a hit nor a miss. He did not play enough for a definitive judgement.
Brohm, Lee - both picks he would like to have over, I suspect.
Colledge and Jackson - a starter and a contributor, so successful picks, but you hope for a little better than that in the 2nd.
Collins, Jennings, Nelson and Cobb - excellent picks.
Hayward - Looks like another good one, but sometimes opponents need to see a guy a few times before knowing how to take advantage of him. DBs sometimes "flash".
Worthy and Neal - no judgement yet.

I've said it before and will again, for some reason TT seems to have a knack for finding good WRs. Jennings, Jones, Nelson and Cobb all were good picks. Probably Murphy, too. The worst pick was Cory Rodgers, but he was a 4th rounder and drafted more as a return man than a receiver, but clearly an unsuccessful pick. The next worst was probably Bragg, a late 6th rounder who never did anything, but it is hit and miss then anyway. Clowney and Swain made their livings as NFL players for a few years each, which isn't bad for late round picks.

[Patler]

I wouldn't lump Colledge with Brohm and Lee. He was a decent pick even if he eventually got beat out as a starter.

I agree, and put Colledge in the same category as Jackson. Both are contributors but you hope for a little better than that in the 2nd round. Not bad picks, but not ones to be overly proud of, either.

[hoosier]

I wonder how much of TT's success, especially in round 2, should be attributed to scouting and evaluation, and how much to player development. There are some cases where the evaluation was clearly just wrong (Brohm) and others where you wonder if a player picked by GB would have progressed comparably had he gone elsewhere (Rodgers). You don't see too many players get drafted by GB, get cut and then go on to develop into good players someplace else. So based on that little bit of anecdotal evidence I'm guessing it's probably 70% evaluation and 30% development.

[sharpe1027]

Once a player is cut they already have a strike against them. You would not expect very many of those cut players to develop into much -- they were cut for a reason. I don't think it is a very good measuring stick to use.

Maybe you could get an answer by looking at development as the coaching changes. If players continually develop despite coaching changes, then you could lower the import of development. If you see a significant difference in development, then you could attribute less to evaluation. I am not sure if there's been enough turnover to do a good analysis under that theory though.

[Guiness]

I wonder how much of TT's success, especially in round 2, should be attributed to scouting and evaluation, and how much to player development. There are some cases where the evaluation was clearly just wrong (Brohm) and others where you wonder if a player picked by GB would have progressed comparably had he gone elsewhere (Rodgers). You don't see too many players get drafted by GB, get cut and then go on to develop into good players someplace else. So based on that little bit of anecdotal evidence I'm guessing it's probably 70% evaluation and 30% development.

As I said above, the Brohm choice smacks a little of panic. There was no way he could expect him to be left on the board at that time, and it's possible he didn't have a full breakdown, so more of a lack of evaluation than a wrong one.

TTwas at the bottom end of the 2nd, looking at a guy who was once ranked as a high first and doesn't have character issues. It's not hard to see why he took him.