PackerStats -- Green Bay at Halfway

[pbmax]

On "prevent" defenses: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40111566/

Takeaway? There are more types of prevent defense than most imagine. Its not all 3 deep zone and outside technique. Sometimes you are not trying to force the clock to move, you are trying to force perfection.

The D has a lot of better parts and most metrics show them playing better, but there are simply too many drives getting into scoring position. This season is proving how much turnovers change the dynamic of field position and the odds of scoring. Think how many drives should have ended on (near) turnovers or on downs (but penalty). The upside is that the D will continue to improve and so will the chances of TOs, though losing Woodson hurts on that front.

[denverYooper]

On "prevent" defenses: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40111566/

Takeaway? There are more types of prevent defense than most imagine. Its not all 3 deep zone and outside technique. Sometimes you are not trying to force the clock to move, you are trying to force perfection.

The D has a lot of better parts and most metrics show them playing better, but there are simply too many drives getting into scoring position. This season is proving how much turnovers change the dynamic of field position and the odds of scoring. Think how many drives should have ended on (near) turnovers or on downs (but penalty). The upside is that the D will continue to improve and so will the chances of TOs, though losing Woodson hurts on that front.

I found it sort of interesting that he mentioned the Jennings fumble for the Jags in his "roll of the dice" section because he and the FO guys have been known to harp on fumble luck and regression toward the mean. Green Bay was 0/4 on fumble recoveries and 1/3 in this game, so their fumble luck has been abysmal up to and, ultimately, in this game. That was the first fumble this year that the Packers defense has recovered, so they were bound to get a break on that sooner or later.

[denverYooper]

My gut feel is that ayn is right - our O isn't as explosive, the other team is getting better starting field position.

Can we find out what the average start location of opponents drives is?

2011 including playoffs:
GB: 30.4 OPP: 26.4

2012
GB: 28.9 OPP: 24.2

So, opponents have a slightly worse starting field position this year on average (as does GB).

That said, here are the field positions for the 5 games they've lost:
2011:
GB: 20 KC: 25
GB: 26 NYG: 42

2012:
GB: 22 SF: 25
GB: 18 SEA: 24
GB: 28 IND: 27

They've won 2 games where they've lost the field position battle, both in 2011
GB: 25 STL: 27
GB: 27 DET: 32

Extra fun fact, in the opening game last year, with 76 points scored, both the Packers and Saints gained 272 yards and started, on average, at the 27 yard line.

I have a few new theories:
1.) It seems like opponents this year are more successful off of GB turnovers. And GB has turned the ball over a bit more. Rodgers's fumble (JAC, 13 yds) and int (INDY, 39) are the main reasons I think this.
2.) GB is getting more 3-and-outs this year but when an opponent does drive into GB territory they're more likely to score.

[Pugger]

Isn't it a fact that we still have yet to score on our opening possession of a game this season? Weren't we really good at that last year so our opponents were usually behind early in our games?

[Smidgeon]

Isn't it a fact that we still have yet to score on our opening possession of a game this season? Weren't we really good at that last year so our opponents were usually behind early in our games?

I think they scored the opening possession in the Colts game. They haven't done it often, but they've done it at least once this year.