Packers drafting RB's

[LegandofthePack15]

Just take Montee Ball this next draft and be happy.

Ball might be too slow to be a star in the NFL. Then again, they said the same thing about Emmitt Smith. But then again, Smith has been retired for awhile and we have yet seen the next Emmitt Smith.

If you're gonna draft an "overrated" Badger rb, wait for James White. This guy is lightning fast.

Yes, Badger rbs are overrated. When's the last time one had any success in the NFL?

[woodbuck27]

Can you imagine having this fella in Green Bay? A 6th round draft pick.

Alfred Morris:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Morris_(American_football)

The PACKERS deserve a decent RB.

GO PACK GO !

[mraynrand]

Ball might be too slow to be a star in the NFL. Then again, they said the same thing about Emmitt Smith. But then again, Smith has been retired for awhile and we have yet seen the next Emmitt Smith.

You don't see a lot of O-lines like Dallas had in the 90s. Maybe the Redskins are getting there...

[Cheesehead Craig]

But there are still guys in this draft I would jump to take who are not running backs, and I would be satisfied with the draft when those selections preclude spending a high pick on a known quantity at RB.

I mean, potentia stud S, potential stud C, potential stud DE, quality WR, or "average starting quality RB"?

Ah yes, all your options are studs, but a RB is average. Nice argument.

[pbmax]

Ah yes, all your options are studs, but a RB is average. Nice argument.

Careful CC, Lurker has already got a Big Board for the draft class of 2015 on his computer.

Reasonable chance he knows already. In so far as one can in the draft.

[woodbuck27]

Careful CC, Lurker has already got a Big Board for the draft class of 2015 on his computer.

Reasonable chance he knows already. In so far as one can in the draft.

Great ! Then Lurker64 can inform us of the best possible ROUND FOUR through SIX picks at RB.

[run pMc]

that is why I said "3rd round or later" ... I believe RB's are a dime a dozen...

Yeah, I think the prevailing belief is that you don't have to spend a high pick to get at least a decent RB. Most recently, Alfred Morris and Daryl Richardson are proof. Awfully tough to hit on those, though.
I do think TT is going to have to address WR, OL, and RB in the next draft. That's assuming DD & GJ aren't with the team. Whether he takes a RB in R3 or higher is a complete mystery to me, and with Lattimore hurt I can't think of another high round back.

Either way, I totally agree the running game needs improvement. Watching teams dare GB to run and fail at it is pretty frustrating.

What's the success rate on converting 3rd and 1 with a run this year?

[Lurker64]

Careful CC, Lurker has already got a Big Board for the draft class of 2015 on his computer.

Reasonable chance he knows already. In so far as one can in the draft.

Well, the thing to keep in mind is that this is not a great class for RBs (or QBs or OTs for that matter). There are no first round calibre RBs this year (what with Lattimore's injury) and someone (hopefully not us) is probably going to end up reaching for an RB in the first round anyway. When you take 2nd round guys in the first round at a position because you "need" one that hurts the quality of the position for the rest of the draft. Best bet would probably be to try to get Lattimore in the fourth round if he's there and wait a year for his knees to heal (a la Michael Bush's broken leg.)

This is a strong year for some things the Packers could use (DL, pass rushers, interior OL, safeties), so most likely the players available at those positions will be stronger in any given round than the weaker positions.

So in round 1, take the best value available at a premium position (running back is not a premium position). In rounds 2 or later, take the best value available at whatever position. If that's a running back, so be it.

But don't take a running back a round or two early because you think you need one, particularly since this is a position where late round and undrafted guys do find success (e.g. Arian Foster, Alfred Morris, Bryce Brown). Just because an RB is good in college doesn't mean he's going to set the NFL on fire anyway, every running back who gets drafted high was good in college but not all of them (e.g. Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller, Ryan Matthews, Knowshon Moreno, Jonathan Stewart; all taken in the top 15 picks) have really helped their team that much (even if they might have helped your fantasy team.)

There are no sure things at any position in the draft. You just make your board, and you trust your board and you try to maximize value, in the sense that you want to take the guys who have the highest probability of being good players who help your team.

[woodbuck27]

Hey Lurker64. How about Vontaze Burfect!?

Vontaze Burfict: From Draft Disaster to Cincinnati Bengals Starter

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1363268-vontaze-burfict-from-draft-disaster-to-cincinnati-bengals-starter

Vontaze Burfect Nominated for NFL Rookie of the month in October 2012

http://www.cincyjungle.com/2012/11/1/3586862/bengals-linebacker-vontaze-burfict-nominated-for-nfl-rookie-of-the

Time For Vontaze Burfict To Receive Early Discussion For Rookie Award

http://www.cincyjungle.com/2012/10/25/3551820/vontaze-burfict-defensive-rookie-of-the-year

Vontaze Burfect NFL Stat's 2012 ....Rookie Year

http://www.nfl.com/player/vontazeburfict/2533058/profile

[woodbuck27]

Well, the thing to keep in mind is that this is not a great class for RBs (or QBs or OTs for that matter). There are no first round calibre RBs this year (what with Lattimore's injury) and someone (hopefully not us) is probably going to end up reaching for an RB in the first round anyway. When you take 2nd round guys in the first round at a position because you "need" one that hurts the quality of the position for the rest of the draft. Best bet would probably be to try to get Lattimore in the fourth round if he's there and wait a year for his knees to heal (a la Michael Bush's broken leg.)

This is a strong year for some things the Packers could use (DL, pass rushers, interior OL, safeties), so most likely the players available at those positions will be stronger in any given round than the weaker positions.

So in round 1, take the best value available at a premium position (running back is not a premium position). In rounds 2 or later, take the best value available at whatever position. If that's a running back, so be it.

But don't take a running back a round or two early because you think you need one, particularly since this is a position where late round and undrafted guys do find success (e.g. Arian Foster, Alfred Morris, Bryce Brown). Just because an RB is good in college doesn't mean he's going to set the NFL on fire anyway, every running back who gets drafted high was good in college but not all of them (e.g. Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller, Ryan Matthews, Knowshon Moreno, Jonathan Stewart; all taken in the top 15 picks) have really helped their team that much (even if they might have helped your fantasy team.)

There are no sure things at any position in the draft. You just make your board, and you trust your board and you try to maximize value, in the sense that you want to take the guys who have the highest probability of being good players who help your team.

Nice post Lurker64. Thanks for the insight we need from a Packer fan that has the inside on the NFL Draft.

GO PACKERS !

[Lurker64]

Hey Lurker64. How about Vontaze Burfect!?

Vontaze Burfict: From Draft Disaster to Cincinnati Bengals Starter

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1363268-vontaze-burfict-from-draft-disaster-to-cincinnati-bengals-starter

Vontaze Burfect Nominated for NFL Rookie of the month in October 2012

http://www.cincyjungle.com/2012/11/1/3586862/bengals-linebacker-vontaze-burfict-nominated-for-nfl-rookie-of-the

Time For Vontaze Burfict To Receive Early Discussion For Rookie Award

http://www.cincyjungle.com/2012/10/25/3551820/vontaze-burfict-defensive-rookie-of-the-year

Vontaze Burfect NFL Stat's 2012 ....Rookie Year

http://www.nfl.com/player/vontazebur...533058/profile

Every draft has guys who surprise a lot of people (both positively and negatively). I would point out that the story on Burfict isn't finished yet. Kid played great in 2010 at ASU, and he played like garbage at ASU in 2011. In 2012, for the Bengals he's pretty good. Who knows what's going to happen in 2013? Reportedly he's not the best guy in the locker room when things aren't going well, but things are going well for the Bengals right now.

There's a reason it's best to wait a few years before doing the post-mortem on a draft.

[Bretsky]

It's easy to say "they should take a player", since a whole lot of players in the draft would help the Packers but you can't take all of them. So the question is "when do you take him" and "do you take him over all these other guys."

I mean, do you take him in the first round instead of a guy like John Cooper or Barrett Jones who could play Center for 10 years? Do you take him in the 2nd round instead of a guy you could develop into a stud DE like SMU's Margus Hunt? If you wait to the third, is he going to be there?

Falling in love with specific players is the mistake our previous GM made frequently, which resulted in gems like "Trading up in the fourth round to select B.J. Sander."

Didn't you use this argument for not drafting Brooks Reed in round one ? Just saying........TT would probably take that after seeing ho w it turned out

[woodbuck27]

Every draft has guys who surprise a lot of people (both positively and negatively). I would point out that the story on Burfict isn't finished yet. Kid played great in 2010 at ASU, and he played like garbage at ASU in 2011. In 2012, for the Bengals he's pretty good. Who knows what's going to happen in 2013? Reportedly he's not the best guy in the locker room when things aren't going well, but things are going well for the Bengals right now.

There's a reason it's best to wait a few years before doing the post-mortem on a draft.

I won't disagree with your view here Lucker64. I just wanted to point out that V. Burfect is playing very well in the NFL so far with a team that did give him the opportunity and since TC it's been all positive.

[KYPack]

Every draft has guys who surprise a lot of people (both positively and negatively). I would point out that the story on Burfict isn't finished yet. Kid played great in 2010 at ASU, and he played like garbage at ASU in 2011. In 2012, for the Bengals he's pretty good. Who knows what's going to happen in 2013? Reportedly he's not the best guy in the locker room when things aren't going well, but things are going well for the Bengals right now.

There's a reason it's best to wait a few years before doing the post-mortem on a draft.

Burfict is a clinic on what NOT to do in your senior year if you are a projected #1 pick.

The coaches down there were universally pissed at him and sandbagged the hell out of him when talking to the scouts.

He then had awful interviews and ran a glacial 40 at the combine.

Result?

UDFA, down from a projected #1 pick.

The Bengals got a starting ILB without burning a pick. And they got the one thing every NFL staff craves.

A humble rookie.

This kid is a cocky bitch, but he hasn't opened his yap all year.

He's has been potty trained by that long fall on draft day.

[RashanGary]

I think I'd prefer a star safety.


Giants (Rolle and Phillips)
Packers (Collins)
Saints (Sharper)
Steelers (Polumalu)
Giants (Phillips)
Colts (Bob Sanders in prime)
Steelers (Polumalu)
Patriots (Rodney Harrison)
Patriots (Harrison)
Buccaneers (Lynch)
Patriots (Harrison)
Ravens (Reed)
Rams (Major Exception)
Broncos (Atwater)
Broncos (Atwater)
Packers (Butler)
49ers (major exception)
Cowboys (Darren Woodson)
Cowboys (Darren Woodson)
Redskins (Exception as far as I know)
Giants (Exception as far as I know)
49ers (Ronny Lott)
49ers (Ronny Lott)



By and large, it's a list of who's who among tops safeties at their particular time in the game. For whatever reason, safeties seem to make a huge difference in a defense. In the last 12 years, I don't think one team has won a SB without a probowl safety. The same can't be said about RB. It's almost exactly the opposite. RB has been one of the least important positions the last 12 years.

Elite QB
Elite S
Pass rush

Those seem to be the common themes in SB winning teams as of late.