"CRITICAL OFFSEASON"...sniff sniff....Change is in the Air

[Deputy Nutz]

Silverstein gets an "F" for proposing a theory, then supporting it with facts.
He proposed that TT has leaned away fron acquiring physical players, then identifies four acquired in the last two years that do appear to be physical types. Unfortunately, all four had their seasons impacted greatly by injuries.

For some reason, the Packers can't seem to catch a break on defense with the health and performance of players:

Justin Harrell comes on board with some very interesting skills and natural gifts, but never gets on the field due to injury after injury.

Johnny Jolly shows a real presence on the DL, a performance many people said was worthy of the Pro Bowl, and he gets himself suspended, apparently for life.

Tramon Williams has a year that causes people to mention him among the best cover-corners in the league, then has an injury that completely takes away his style of play last year, and seemed to change him even this year.

Nick Collins developed to the point of meriting mention with the best safeties in the game today, and has his career ended by mere inches on a freak injury.

Davon House looks like the all-around CB the defense needs for a while in preseason, and goes down to injury that takes away his role.

Desmond Bishop waits years, then finally makes a real physical impact as a starter, gets injured and now has to be considered a question mark for next year.

Mike Neal, another high draft pick, loses two years of development to injuries, then gets himself suspended for the start of this season.

Nick Perry, another first rounder, hardly has a chance to make an impact his rookie season before going on IR. Unfortunately, the better part of a year's on-field experience in converting to LB is lost.

Sam Shields up and down career seems to reach a new level, and he loses a big chunk of his first season as a starter to injury.

Clay Matthews' ongoing hamstring concerns finally cost him significant playing time this year. This has been a continual issue since his rookie year, what will the future bring for him?

Manning, Smith, McMillan all could have had larger roles this season, but circumstances denied them their opportunities.

The defensive roster just can't seem to develop the cohesion it needs.

Great post. Silverstein seems to find a dislike for a guy and then rag on him throughout his career. That guy is AJ Hawk, he isn't what you want out of 5th pick in the draft and he has been disappointing, but that doesn't mean you post irrational articles just so you can throw his name around for the 100th time this season.

[Patler]

Silverstein seems to find a dislike for a guy and then rag on him throughout his career. That guy is AJ Hawk, he isn't what you want out of 5th pick in the draft and he has been disappointing, but that doesn't mean you post irrational articles just so you can throw his name around for the 100th time this season.

I agree completely. It's unfortunate that the year the Packers had the #5 pick was not a year that had a bunch of future Hall of Famers available.

[pbmax]

I understand the perception that the Packers need to toughen up on defense in order to regain the edge that they seem to have lost in the past year or so. But the beating they took from San Fran wasn't just about physicality. It was also about scheme, or execution, or both. The two things that stood out were the third down blitzes where the GB man defense left no one to account for the QB, and the read-option plays where the OLBs crashed inside and nobody was left on the edge to force Kaepernick back inside. To me it looked like the Packer defense thought it was playing against Matthew Stafford or some other immobile quarterback. You have to make Kaepernick beat you through the air. He might well have done that, but if he had we wouldn't be sitting here talking about how the Packers need to retool their defense by swapping out their "finesse" players for hard hitters. In looking at the entire season I think the Packers currently have a better than average defense that could well get even better with a healthy Bishop and off-season development from guys like Perry, Hayward, Moses and Daniels. Saturday was not a fluke, but I doubt very much that Desmond Bishop would have made a difference given the Packers failure to adjust (or execute?) any better than they did.

I cannot explain the 2nd half plan as I barely remember and have not watched it again. But the first half was a complete miscalculation, which can happen. What I don't understand, is that like Webb/Ponder the week before, how they did not see it coming.

The players and coaches comments were pretty consistent after the game: they did not expect CK to run as much as was obviously planned by the 49ers. They planned to get him on the edge or run Gore up the gut. Capers treated CK like a rookie QB and blitzed him and got burned after a hot start. I thought the comments about Webb being good preparation for CK were just media fodder for the fans. They apparently believed this.

Capers shouldn't be on the hot seat for scheme, it should be for not reading newspapers or listening to ESPN.

Everyone here knew Kapernick was going to be a threat to run the ball. Even Webb shook loose on the Packers outside. But the Packers didn't take that the threat of CK/Gore as seriously as the threat of Webb/Peterson. Its almost like the like four weeks of desultory games and tape for the 49ers gave Capers the impression that their offense had peaked and was now solved.

Maybe if he had two weeks to prepare, he would have had a backup defense.

Now after that rant, one thing is also very clear: they did expect him to run some read-option. They did use some kind of spy on some plays and had a plan (the scrape that Aikman mentioned) for the read-option. But the players could not execute it. So while Capers made a fundamental miscalculation about the threat of CK, the players and position coaches also failed in this game to execute two basic assignments.

[pbmax]

Great post. Silverstein seems to find a dislike for a guy and then rag on him throughout his career. That guy is AJ Hawk, he isn't what you want out of 5th pick in the draft and he has been disappointing, but that doesn't mean you post irrational articles just so you can throw his name around for the 100th time this season.

I also think Tom has lost his mind. Manning is big and physical? The fastest LB on the roster who before getting sick had trouble staying at 240+?

Jones is 6' 3" and 245. He's five pounds lighter than Matthews and his forte is holding the edge in the run game at OLB.

Frank Zombo was not acquired for his light feet and quickness. Unless Tom knows about a secret plan to play Zombo at DE.

[hoosier]

For sure it is a combination of things.

But whatever it is change is imperative which starts from the mindset of the coordinator.

BTW Greg Roman the niners o coordinator was on Caper's Carolina staff and knew exactly what Capers would call in numerous situations. This is the tpe of information Buck and Aikman provide during a telecast. All those whiners need to be quiet and listen.

Keep the fan mail coming -- I know the O'reilly bullies are silly but do not be intimadated

You make it sound like Capers is a robot programmed to make certain calls in certain situations. Roman was with Capers two decades ago. Aikman turned an old personal history into an explanation for a systemic failure in the Packers defense. Don't take him too seriously.

[Smeefers]

Silverstein gets an "F" for proposing a theory, then supporting it with facts.
He proposed that TT has leaned away fron acquiring physical players, then identifies four acquired in the last two years that do appear to be physical types. Unfortunately, all four had their seasons impacted greatly by injuries.

For some reason, the Packers can't seem to catch a break on defense with the health and performance of players:

Justin Harrell comes on board with some very interesting skills and natural gifts, but never gets on the field due to injury after injury.

Johnny Jolly shows a real presence on the DL, a performance many people said was worthy of the Pro Bowl, and he gets himself suspended, apparently for life.

Tramon Williams has a year that causes people to mention him among the best cover-corners in the league, then has an injury that completely takes away his style of play last year, and seemed to change him even this year.

Nick Collins developed to the point of meriting mention with the best safeties in the game today, and has his career ended by mere inches on a freak injury.

Davon House looks like the all-around CB the defense needs for a while in preseason, and goes down to injury that takes away his role.

Desmond Bishop waits years, then finally makes a real physical impact as a starter, gets injured and now has to be considered a question mark for next year.

Mike Neal, another high draft pick, loses two years of development to injuries, then gets himself suspended for the start of this season.

Nick Perry, another first rounder, hardly has a chance to make an impact his rookie season before going on IR. Unfortunately, the better part of a year's on-field experience in converting to LB is lost.

Sam Shields up and down career seems to reach a new level, and he loses a big chunk of his first season as a starter to injury.

Clay Matthews' ongoing hamstring concerns finally cost him significant playing time this year. This has been a continual issue since his rookie year, what will the future bring for him?

Manning, Smith, McMillan all could have had larger roles this season, but circumstances denied them their opportunities.

The defensive roster just can't seem to develop the cohesion it needs.

[red]

O-line is fine.

is it?

on paper it looks ok

newhouse- average
lang- good
saturday/eds- average
sitton- very good
bulaga- maybe very good

only one of those guys was lost for the season, yet somehow that decent looking line managed to be the worst in the NFL. our rushing attack was one of if not the worst in the NFL, and we allowed a lot more sacks then any other team.

and the line didn't look that great early in the year when it was all together either

so maybe it is time to look at the o-line, even though it does look to be ok on paper

[hoosier]

I cannot explain the 2nd half plan as I barely remember and have not watched it again. But the first half was a complete miscalculation, which can happen. What I don't understand, is that like Webb/Ponder the week before, how they did not see it coming.

The players and coaches comments were pretty consistent after the game: they did not expect CK to run as much as was obviously planned by the 49ers. They planned to get him on the edge or run Gore up the gut. Capers treated CK like a rookie QB and blitzed him and got burned after a hot start. I thought the comments about Webb being good preparation for CK were just media fodder for the fans. They apparently believed this.

Capers shouldn't be on the hot seat for scheme, it should be for not reading newspapers or listening to ESPN.

Everyone here knew Kapernick was going to be a threat to run the ball. Even Webb shook loose on the Packers outside. But the Packers didn't take that the threat of CK/Gore as seriously as the threat of Webb/Peterson. Its almost like the like four weeks of desultory games and tape for the 49ers gave Capers the impression that their offense had peaked and was now solved.

Maybe if he had two weeks to prepare, he would have had a backup defense.

Now after that rant, one thing is also very clear: they did expect him to run some read-option. They did use some kind of spy on some plays and had a plan (the scrape that Aikman mentioned) for the read-option. But the players could not execute it. So while Capers made a fundamental miscalculation about the threat of CK, the players and position coaches also failed in this game to execute two basic assignments.

If that outside-inside exchange is really what they were supposed to do then, on Kaepernick's long TD run, either Jones didn't get the message or he simply cannot play, because he bites hard on the fake to Gore. It was painful to watch the first time, it cannot be any worse a second time: http://www.nfl.com/videos/green-bay-...k-56-yd-run-TD. Here, meanwhile, they are clearly having Matthews crash and Jones flow outside, only problem is he gets picked off by the fullback: http://www.nfl.com/videos/green-bay-...nick-16-yd-run. I'm not sure how they are supposed to account for that.

I agree, it was surprising to hear those confessions about how they didn't expect Kaepernick to run the way he did. That's the only time I can think of that conventional pundit wisdom seems to have known more than the coaches. Interesting idea about how the 9ers recent struggles might have affected Packers preparation--maybe the players as much as Capers?

[mission]

Yup -- bring some physicality which starts with Teo. Aloha to Hawk and his $5.4 million cap number.

Drafting more agile players -- Hawk?

Teo?? Are you kidding? Did you watch the National Championship?

Dude is a lunge tackler. Get rid of AJ Hawk for another AJ Hawk? No thanks. Another overrated college linebacker.

[denverYooper]

If that outside-inside exchange is really what they were supposed to do then, on Kaepernick's long TD run, either Jones didn't get the message or he simply cannot play, because he bites hard on the fake to Gore. It was painful to watch the first time, it cannot be any worse a second time: http://www.nfl.com/videos/green-bay-...k-56-yd-run-TD. Here, meanwhile, they are clearly having Matthews crash and Jones flow outside, only problem is he gets picked off by the fullback: http://www.nfl.com/videos/green-bay-...nick-16-yd-run. I'm not sure how they are supposed to account for that.

I agree, it was surprising to hear those confessions about how they didn't expect Kaepernick to run the way he did. That's the only time I can think of that conventional pundit wisdom seems to have known more than the coaches. Interesting idea about how the 9ers recent struggles might have affected Packers preparation--maybe the players as much as Capers?

Harbaugh stated somewhere that they intentionally did not run many pistol plays in the Seattle game and none in the AZ game. Also, that they extended their option package considerably with things not on film. So it was a combination of the Packers being underprepared and the 49ers coming in with a great gameplan.

I thought that their chances were 50/50 at best but that the Shields pick-6 would be the exact thing they'd need to win this game. Unfortunately a combination of offensive stalls and Ross's muffed punt put them back in the hole from which they would never completely dig out.

[rbaloha1]

Teo?? Are you kidding? Did you watch the National Championship?

Dude is a lunge tackler. Get rid of AJ Hawk for another AJ Hawk? No thanks. Another overrated college linebacker.

You are not alone with that assessment.

[Patler]

is it?

on paper it looks ok

newhouse- average
lang- good
saturday/eds- average
sitton- very good
bulaga- maybe very good

only one of those guys was lost for the season, yet somehow that decent looking line managed to be the worst in the NFL. our rushing attack was one of if not the worst in the NFL, and we allowed a lot more sacks then any other team.

and the line didn't look that great early in the year when it was all together either

so maybe it is time to look at the o-line, even though it does look to be ok on paper

Well........I'll go back to one of my old complaints.....Campen.

Good O-lines can be groups for which the total performance is better than the sum of its parts. OK or average players playing well as a unit perform better than their individual abilities might suggest.

The Packers are the opposite. Seemingly very good players are not having the collective result you would hope for.

Year after year the line starts slowly, in both pass protection and run blocking; and never seems to develop the coordinated performance you look for. They show capability in one game, vulnerability in the next.

[Patler]

Teo?? Are you kidding? Did you watch the National Championship?

Dude is a lunge tackler. Get rid of AJ Hawk for another AJ Hawk? No thanks. Another overrated college linebacker.

Te'o is not a lunge tackler, although he looked that way at times in that game. The entire ND defense was behind the playing speed of that game, not unlike an NFL rookie is at first. Consequently, Te'o was shown to be lunging a few times in that game because he was behind and slightly out of position, or was trying to go around or over D-lineman that were pushed back into him or on the ground in his way. That has not been his normal tackling style for four years as a starter.

I think Te'o will adapt to the speed of the NFL, and he is more than willing to play a physical style of play. No LB will play well when his own D-linemen are pushed completely into his path to a ball carrier.

The overall difference in team speed and skill in that game was tremendous, and consequently it blunted the performances of even the better players on ND.

That said, I have no strong feelings for or against the Packers taking Te'o.

[pbmax]

If that outside-inside exchange is really what they were supposed to do then, on Kaepernick's long TD run, either Jones didn't get the message or he simply cannot play, because he bites hard on the fake to Gore. It was painful to watch the first time, it cannot be any worse a second time: http://www.nfl.com/videos/green-bay-...k-56-yd-run-TD. Here, meanwhile, they are clearly having Matthews crash and Jones flow outside, only problem is he gets picked off by the fullback: http://www.nfl.com/videos/green-bay-...nick-16-yd-run. I'm not sure how they are supposed to account for that.

I agree, it was surprising to hear those confessions about how they didn't expect Kaepernick to run the way he did. That's the only time I can think of that conventional pundit wisdom seems to have known more than the coaches. Interesting idea about how the 9ers recent struggles might have affected Packers preparation--maybe the players as much as Capers?

Yes on all accounts. If I am reading the comments and literature correctly, there are two different counters to the scrape the Packers were running. One is a slice block by the TE/wing. The other is the FB/RB lead block.

And while I hate to mind read or make assumptions about individuals, my one concern about Capers is age. Did someone on the Packer staff review enough tape of this play to know that? Smart Football tweeted that most of the pro offenses using the read option used the slice block as a counter to the D's scrape. Did anyone from the Packers see this?

[pbmax]

Well........I'll go back to one of my old complaints.....Campen.

Good O-lines can be groups for which the total performance is better than the sum of its parts. OK or average players playing well as a unit perform better than their individual abilities might suggest.

The Packers are the opposite. Seemingly very good players are not having the collective result you would hope for.

Year after year the line starts slowly, in both pass protection and run blocking; and never seems to develop the coordinated performance you look for. They show capability in one game, vulnerability in the next.

Actually, this year, after they went to the Patler lineup, I thought their performance got noticeably better. Doesn't explain slow starts and Bulaga's down year even before the injury, but they jelled late. The pass rush issues late in the 49er game were a one dimensional offense being forced to call the absolute correct protection to guard against Willis' delayed blitzes.