THE draft thread (2013 version)

[woodbuck27]

jesse williams to seattle

Why not? Someone has to compete with the 49ers.

[rbaloha1]

Why not? Someone has to compete with the 49ers.

boy if this works out for seattle and the packers d-line gets waxed again watch out.

[woodbuck27]

Ohh Great.

TT is lining up to go either RB or OL again:

Maybe?

OC David Quessenberry, San Jose State

[denverYooper]

This makes sense. My guess is, based upon his methodical approach, is that he will trade up if they really like a player and trade down if there isn't one that stands out.

To add to that, my understanding is that the GB staff uses a tier system where they have pools of players ranked in a certain tier. That and they spend a lot of time before the draft working out possible scenarios so that they have an idea of what they would like to do. If they are on the clock, they have several players with similar grade, and they know that they are very likely to get one of those players even if they move down X number of spots they'll pull the trigger. Old-style value charts be damned.

[woodbuck27]

boy if this works out for seattle and the packers d-line gets waxed again watch out.

TT has gone DE >>> RB >>> OT >>> OT and RB.

We had primary need at SS and then 34 OLB >>>SILB. No response from TT for those needs and we're in 1/3 of Round Five.

[KYPack]

According to NFL channel, GB is shopping Starks.

Wist, Woody, & RB.

Quit crying like babies.

Let's wait until somebody pulls on a jock before you condemn the GBP draft staff.

I'd like to see more D, but there is nobody posting that knows more than the pro's do.

Certainly none of you boys, that's fer sure.

The Browns have drafted two guys, the Jet's are fucked up, the Pack is in fine hands.

[woodbuck27]

Ohh Lord.

The SAINTS picked >>>and this is hilarious>>>

Kenny Stills. He looks awesome with his tatoo's in a dress.

The thing is he's a decent WR too. I don't think Green Bay has a proper jewelry store for his needs....dress code.

Is DRAG >>> big in Green Bay?

[woodbuck27]

According to NFL channel, GB is shopping Starks.

Wist, Woody, & RB.

Quit crying like babies.

Let's wait until somebody pulls on a jock before you condemn the GBP draft staff.

I'd like to see more D, but there is nobody posting that knows more than the pro's do.

Certainly none of you boys, that's fer sure.

The Browns have drafted two guys, the Jet's are fucked up, the Pack is in fine hands.

The problem is ... KY.

TT >>> isn't >>> drafting.

He's 'mostly' trading.

Come on man. He's certainly looking like he wants to be elsewhere than in the War Room today.

[woodbuck27]

SS

Tony Jefferson, (FS) but decent size at 5'11" 213 Oklahoma

Motta, Zeke Motta SS ... 6'2" 213 ... Notre Dame

Bacari Rambo, SS, Georgia


SILB >>> A.J. Klein, Iowa State

[rbaloha1]

According to NFL channel, GB is shopping Starks.

Wist, Woody, & RB.

Quit crying like babies.

Let's wait until somebody pulls on a jock before you condemn the GBP draft staff.

I'd like to see more D, but there is nobody posting that knows more than the pro's do.

Certainly none of you boys, that's fer sure.

The Browns have drafted two guys, the Jet's are fucked up, the Pack is in fine hands.

No one is crying. Fans just like everyone else.

Please also scold your other sons as well.

[Carolina_Packer]

According to NFL channel, GB is shopping Starks.

Wist, Woody, & RB.

Quit crying like babies.

Let's wait until somebody pulls on a jock before you condemn the GBP draft staff.

I'd like to see more D, but there is nobody posting that knows more than the pro's do.

Certainly none of you boys, that's fer sure.

The Browns have drafted two guys, the Jet's are fucked up, the Pack is in fine hands.

Thank you voice of reason! It's useless to get so upset. If you can't do anything about it, don't get upset.

[wist43]

The players you excluded have a higher chance if becoming solid starters than your final hit rate. By excluding them you artificially lowered the hit rate.

Nobody wants him to include rounds 1-3. What he did was include players in rounds 4-7 that were cut while excluding players still on the team from the same draft and also in rounds 4-7.

If you are correct about the intent of wist's post, then he would need to analyze the success rate of round three to show a comparison. There are several other problems. For example, the concept of dividing the analysis into rounds is fundamentally flawed. A pick at the end of round three is closer to a pick in round four than it is to a pick at the beginning of round three. You could try to analyze the difference in the success rate between number of picks the packers traded down. Then you could look at the success rate of the picks they gained.

In any event, it is probably not worth figuring out b/c there are simply too many variables to make a reasonable analysis.

Ok wist, you asked for a statistics expert, so I am wasting 5 mnutes.

They are all right and you are wrong in this case. You have selectively eliminated data that may not support your hypothesis. This is very similar to a global warming alarmist. I may be remembering incorrectly, but JH said the hit rate was something like 22% if you eliminate the entire drafts, so if you had 4 question marks the correct way of doing it would be to use the previous years rates, then apply a 22% X 4 unknowns for one 88% confidence "hit".

If you include the "known" misses you should also include .88 "hit" for your unknowns....or eliminate ALL of those draft picks.

By eliminating the most likely to succeed (only ones who still might) while counting the 100% flops you skew your stats and mislead.

You might be closer to accurate then the others, but you are still way off by effectively eliminating nearly one full "hit" while allowing in numerous "misses".

Ok, see you all in another year or so.

Edit: You also have not shown the success percentage of picks 1-3 which may be of a low enough rate to make TT's trades smart. If he effectively gave up 20 spots, you have to show the likely success rate of that to truly understand the effectiveness of what he did. This is why I hate statistics, because so much of it is subject to the input. We have as many as 3 names that people dispute with you who should be on the list. Many would argue that Matt Flynn should be on the list. And so on and so on.

I think wist is saying that by leaving the 3rd round, GB lowered the chance of netting a quality starter substanually. Why would he include rounds 1-3, if he is trying to show how many players from rounds 4-7 turned into quality players. He could show how much better TT is at finding quality starters in round 1-3, though. I think wist isn't being generous enough to some of the players in those rounds though. I count 13 that made to me some sort of quality contribution to the team......

I have him at about 29% in rounds 4-7 and about 75% in rounds 1-3, so I understand his point of taking a player in the 3rd round and not aquiring picks.....alas my standards are lower. I give credit to say Colledge, as he made alot of contribution. Wist would say the dude sucked and was a wasted 2nd round pick....

UUUUUUUUUUUUURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!! !

I swear to GOD, you guys need to go back to school!!!!!!!!!

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The hit rate is not - it is not 22% if the criteria I set for my analysis is to acquire a solid starter - which is 3 players (Sitton, Lang, and Bishop) - which is 6.67%.

If the criteria you want to set is that the guy made the roster and had a cup of coffee in the league - then be my guest and make your own hit/miss list based on coffee consumption.

I don't even include Starks b/c he's contributed in a handful of games - but is the poster child for "fart in the wind SB win". My criteria was that they be at least a full-time starter, and solid contributor - in the starting lineup.

That's what we need guys!!! We need, at a minimum, solid starters to be coming out of these rounds - we're not getting them. We have gotten 3 quality starter out of 48 picks. That's the current tally.

My point in putting that list together is we are not likely to find the caliber of players necessary to keep pace with the bullies on the block in the lower rounds. IT'S JUST A STATISTICAL FACT!!!!

By saying we need starters, not only starters but at least red-chip starters... by that criteria, TT is batting 1 for 48 (Sitton).

1 for 48. That is a hit rate of 2.08%

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Note: I shouldn't have included Crosby in the numbers. Just as in FF, who gives a shit about a kicker.

Taking Crosby out of the data set altogether drops the number from 45 to 44 (I'm still going to take House, McMillian, and Daniels off of the 47, b/c they are complete unknowns).

So, taking Crosby off gives you 1 out 44 red-chip hits (Sitton) = 2.27%

And 3 out of 44 - starters (Sitton, Lang, Bishop) = 6.82%

The rest do not fit my definition of a solid starter - which we need much more often out of these rounds if we are going to live by the draft alone.

[wist43]

Thank you voice of reason! It's useless to get so upset. If you can't do anything about it, don't get upset.

I'm taking my kids to the park - the temp is almost to 60!!!

Saw a bud (not the 4-20 kind) on a shrub today

[woodbuck27]

Thank you voice of reason! It's useless to get so upset. If you can't do anything about it, don't get upset.

Noone is upset>>>Maybe just a tad surprized.

This is a draft not a give away at a Rummage sale>>> a benevolent Society Venture?

No TT It's the College DRAFT. It's a draft man. A place/time for now and this season and our teams future.

A time to draw closer to your competition >>> embrace it (them) with gifts.

NO ! TT !!

TT !!! NO !!!

Draft Man>>>don't water down the watered down wine.


There is 'the Voice of Reason' and certain common sense.

TT is having a miserable draft to this point in time and there's not enough quality air down there to even get a decent breath.

He's traded himself down into DRAFT HELL.

[wist43]

OK Bahktari sounds like he is going to play Tackle first and then possibly Guard if Campen can be believed. Tretter has spent all offseason working as Guard and Center.

It's usually what they do... try 'em at T until they fail there. Coach 'em up for a year at G - then cut 'em for Ted's next 6th round draft choice.

Rinse. Repeat.