THE draft thread (2013 version)

[green_bowl_packer]

Green Bay Packers UDFA
Lane Taylor, OT, Oklahoma State
Patrick Lewis, C, Texas A&M
Angelo Pease, RB, Kansas State
Matt Brown, QB, Illinois State
Ben Ericksen, S, Illinois State
Gilbert Pena, DT, Mississippi
Jake Stoneburner, TE, Ohio State
Andy Mulumba, DE, Eastern Michigan
Jeremy Vujnovich, OT, Louisiana College

[sharpe1027]

16th most attempts in the NFL last year with Benson/Green/Starks/Harris starting. I think Lacy might get as many. I am not worried about the rushing attempts. The O line needs to get healthy and it would be great if EDS was either replaced by a 5th round pick or beat him outright. Because production would be light years ahead of last year.

I agree that the number is not that important. To me what is important is being able to consistently take four yards when the defense allows it. I thought they were starting to do that before Benson got hurt.

When you have a no name back step in and make your running game look much better late in the year, I have to believe that the problems were not all with the oline. Only time will tell if they can improve further with either of the two rookies, but they have a better chance then when they were only bringing in guys like Saine to compete for roster spots.

[wist43]

16th most attempts in the NFL last year with Benson/Green/Starks/Harris starting. I think Lacy might get as many. I am not worried about the rushing attempts. The O line needs to get healthy and it would be great if EDS was either replaced by a 5th round pick or beat him outright. Because production would be light years ahead of last year.

Rodgers, Harris, Kuhn, and Harrell accounted for 125 carries. Benson/Green/Starks accounted for 277 carries.

I don't include Harris with those guys b/c he was mostly a sub-package guy, and either he or Franklin, or a combination of the 2 will still get those carries.

Harvey and I covered this. He thinks Lacy will end up with 250 carries, 4.4 yd avg, 1100 yds, 8 TD's.

I don't see that at all. Green, or whichever back is still going to get carries. And those other backs combined to average only 3.5 yds/carry. Even granting Lacy some increases in production just b/c he's a better back than all those guys - let's say you give him 225 atts, 4.0 yd avg, 900 yds, 6 TD's.

He's still going to have to run behind one of the worst run blocking offensive lines in the league, and has one of the pass happiest play callers in the league in MM.

That's why I didn't want to invest such a high pick in a RB - he's going to have a lower ceiling than his talent would warrant b/c of the offense he is in.

[Fosco33]

Based on the Packers needs vs. picks, you have to think TT/MM and staff assume the following on current players:

- McMillian/Jennings are starting quality safeties
- EDS is a starting quality center
- Worthy/Perry will perform much better in years 2-4
- Not a lot of confidence in Sherrod coming back and being a contributor

I'm worried about SS and Center.

On Draft picks:
- Lacy, despite injury history, was worth the gamble. I think they hedged the bet with Franklin. It's beyond obvious that the Packers know they need to have more than RB by committee in the next 2-3 years. Teams know Arodg's tendencies and create good game plans. Having to think about all aspects of quality offense will allow us to be less predictable. I.e., being able to get a 1st down on 3rd and 1 without passing it.
- Many here are down on Bakh, I just know that when TT has traded UP for people - that he generally thinks highly of them... worth a shot
- 3 guys from Illinois State (one draft, 2 UDFAs ) - wonder what scout went down there or the back connection. For a small school to have 3 packers (until mid/late Aug) says something...
- Twotone must have impressed them with the read-option creaping back.

[Badgerinmaine]

I didn't know that about Hyde; where did you see that ?

Tatum-Woodson Award winner for best DB in the Big Ten last year: http://blog.packers.com/2013/04/27/packers-add-iowa-cb-micah-hyde-in-fifth-round/
Good write up on Hyde from an Iowa blog: http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2...file-iowa-2013

[Bretsky]

Based on the Packers needs vs. picks, you have to think TT/MM and staff assume the following on current players:

- McMillian/Jennings are starting quality safeties
- EDS is a starting quality center
- Worthy/Perry will perform much better in years 2-4
- Not a lot of confidence in Sherrod coming back and being a contributor

I'm worried about SS and Center.

On Draft picks:
- Lacy, despite injury history, was worth the gamble. I think they hedged the bet with Franklin. It's beyond obvious that the Packers know they need to have more than RB by committee in the next 2-3 years. Teams know Arodg's tendencies and create good game plans. Having to think about all aspects of quality offense will allow us to be less predictable. I.e., being able to get a 1st down on 3rd and 1 without passing it.
- Many here are down on Bakh, I just know that when TT has traded UP for people - that he generally thinks highly of them... worth a shot
- 3 guys from Illinois State (one draft, 2 UDFAs ) - wonder what scout went down there or the back connection. For a small school to have 3 packers (until mid/late Aug) says something...
- Twotone must have impressed them with the read-option creaping back.

TT did not trade up to get Bakh.....he was the pick TT was left with when TT traded out of round three and about eighteen picks back. The quality of need picks IMO...that came off the board in between those two picks were up there. TT traded up to get the second RB in Franklyn, the RB from UCLA. That was a great value pick. Whether the need was there to get another RB and neglect other spots seems to be what some are debating on.

[3irty1]

I think Green and Starks are probably as good as cut. Harris and the new guys will handle the load. if any of them are decent there should be a back that pretty effortlessly gets enough attempts for 1k in yards. MM's playcalling is usually a reflaction of what the defense is giving him. We'll be running the ball when the front is favorable and it appears to be McCarthy's favored answer to facing 2-deep coverage. Historically we've run the ball a lot against the Bears and now every team is approaching us with a smothering coverage like that.

I have a feeling JC Tretter is a future center and have a feeling that Sam Barrington might even be a fullback. Clearly they want to be effective when they run the ball this year.

[pbmax]

Rodgers, Harris, Kuhn, and Harrell accounted for 125 carries. Benson/Green/Starks accounted for 277 carries.

I don't include Harris with those guys b/c he was mostly a sub-package guy, and either he or Franklin, or a combination of the 2 will still get those carries.

Harvey and I covered this. He thinks Lacy will end up with 250 carries, 4.4 yd avg, 1100 yds, 8 TD's.

I don't see that at all. Green, or whichever back is still going to get carries. And those other backs combined to average only 3.5 yds/carry. Even granting Lacy some increases in production just b/c he's a better back than all those guys - let's say you give him 225 atts, 4.0 yd avg, 900 yds, 6 TD's.

Subtract Rodgers and Harrell rushes (58) from the team total give you 375 running back carries. Subtract Cobb in backfield (which probably doesn't go away immediately) gives you 365 to pass around.

Benson will not be back and Starks isn't probably long for the team either. Harris looks to make it on production and Green might get a shot on the hope he is healthy.

Kuhn will be the fullback and might handle third down passing sets if Franklin doesn't pick it up.

If we assume Lacy wins the competition, he picks up the carries of Benson, Starks, Green (who was starting) and Grant. Call 35 Green carries some kind of 3rd down run that will go to Kuhn/Cobb/Franklin/Harris. Let Harris and Kuhn keep their 2012 carries in specialist roles.

That leaves a legitimate 100 (Green)+71 (Benson)+ 71 (Starks)+ 23 (Grant) carries for a 2 down RB = 273.

If DuJuan Harris can get 4.6 yards per carry, Lacy can do 4.0. Bulaga will be healthy as will Lang. EDS is a run blocking upgrade to Saturday. Left Tackle is a mystery.

273 X 4 = 1092

Packers scored 9 rush TDs 2 of which are Rodgers and let's call both of those designed QB rollouts. Lacy will be the short yardage guy so this number won't go down. Say its a wash Lacy short TDs versus Rodgers now functional play action.

7 TDs. Well worth a late second round pick.

So his line will read 270 carries, 4.0 ypc for 1080 yards and 7 TDs

But all of this is meaningless if someone, anyone, stays healthy, starts and develops some timing and chemistry with the line and M3. Because that will solve a large part of the problem by itself. Personally, I think M3 has been dissembling for some time about 2 RBs and going with the hot hand. He has previously shown the willingness to stick with one guy and ride him while its working. Lacy can easily be that guy.

He doesn't need to be Peterson in this offense, or Eddie George. He just needs to be Corey Dillon in NE.

[Guiness]

Lacy won't get every carry, and Harris or Franklin, or both will get their carries; so let's say Lacy gets 225 carries, and let's increase his yds/carry average from the last years backs from 3.5 to 3.9 yds/carry, and increase his TD's 200% over what the 3 backs combined did - I think that's pretty generous given the shaky the state of the line.

That comes out to 877 yds, on 225 carries, 3.9 yd avg, with 6 TD's.

Sound about right??

I think this could be about right (even if I agree with about nothing else you've posted in this thread!) and I'd be pretty happy with that. I think having a back with even mediocre production is enough to keep opposing defenses a bit more honest.

If we get this sort of production out of a late second round pick, that's not a bad return.

[Guiness]

I just did the same thing. The 49ers did very well. That's an 0.850 Avg. A very solid draft for 11 picks.

Pie in the sky numbers if ever I saw them Woody! Talk to me in 3 years and - and if those draft evaluations hold true, we'll be talking about the incredible 3-peat by SF, which I doubt

[wist43]

Subtract Rodgers and Harrell rushes (58) from the team total give you 375 running back carries. Subtract Cobb in backfield (which probably doesn't go away immediately) gives you 365 to pass around.

Benson will not be back and Starks isn't probably long for the team either. Harris looks to make it on production and Green might get a shot on the hope he is healthy.

Kuhn will be the fullback and might handle third down passing sets if Franklin doesn't pick it up.

If we assume Lacy wins the competition, he picks up the carries of Benson, Starks, Green (who was starting) and Grant. Call 35 Green carries some kind of 3rd down run that will go to Kuhn/Cobb/Franklin/Harris. Let Harris and Kuhn keep their 2012 carries in specialist roles.

That leaves a legitimate 100 (Green)+71 (Benson)+ 71 (Starks)+ 23 (Grant) carries for a 2 down RB = 273.

If DuJuan Harris can get 4.6 yards per carry, Lacy can do 4.0. Bulaga will be healthy as will Lang. EDS is a run blocking upgrade to Saturday. Left Tackle is a mystery.

273 X 4 = 1092

Packers scored 9 rush TDs 2 of which are Rodgers and let's call both of those designed QB rollouts. Lacy will be the short yardage guy so this number won't go down. Say its a wash Lacy short TDs versus Rodgers now functional play action.

7 TDs. Well worth a late second round pick.

So his line will read 270 carries, 4.0 ypc for 1080 yards and 7 TDs

But all of this is meaningless if someone, anyone, stays healthy, starts and develops some timing and chemistry with the line and M3. Because that will solve a large part of the problem by itself. Personally, I think M3 has been dissembling for some time about 2 RBs and going with the hot hand. He has previously shown the willingness to stick with one guy and ride him while its working. Lacy can easily be that guy.

He doesn't need to be Peterson in this offense, or Eddie George. He just needs to be Corey Dillon in NE.

You're into "WOW" territory with Harvey if you think Lacy will get the rock 273 times.

You're assuming all the carries go to Lacy; that he won't miss any games; that he won't hit the proverbial wall; that our pathetic OL can open holes going up against some pretty damn good defenses; and that McCarthy won't lose his cheat sheet with the running plays on it.

That's a lot of things falling perfectly for your boy to get those numbers.

[rbaloha1]

A big part of packer success shall be lacy averaging 20+ carries per game.

[KYPack]

A big part of packer success shall be lacy averaging 20+ carries per game.

There's another plus that Lacy can bring. The defenses we face will have to account for him. Last season when Benson went down, Indy made a great adjustment in mid-game. They went to a light box with Green in there. With only 6 defenders in the box, Rodgers wasn't as successful throwing vs the Colts from that point on.

If Lacy can keep 7 defenders in the box and keep those LB's honest, his biggest contributions may be reflected in keeping the passing game souped up.

[rbaloha1]

There's another plus that Lacy can bring. The defenses we face will have to account for him. Last season when Benson went down, Indy made a great adjustment in mid-game. They went to a light box with Green in there. With only 6 defenders in the box, Rodgers wasn't as successful throwing vs the Colts from that point on.

If Lacy can keep 7 defenders in the box and keep those LB's honest, his biggest contributions may be reflected in keeping the passing game souped up.

Yes sir -- teams take the running game more seriously plus MM has the confidence to call more running plays.

[King Friday]

He's still going to have to run behind one of the worst run blocking offensive lines in the league, and has one of the pass happiest play callers in the league in MM.

Wist, I continue to wonder why you think McCarthy is pass-happy. In recent years, he hasn't had a capable RB and has had troubles with the OL...of course he's going to lean on the passing game. However, when McCarthy has been in control of an offense that possessed a capable RB, he has never been pass reliant. In reality, his offenses have been immensely balanced in those instances where he had a capable RB at his disposal.

Deuce McAllister ran the ball a lot in New Orleans when McCarthy was there (2000-2004), averaging 21 carries a game from 2002-2004.
In 2005 in SF, Barlow and Gore combined for 300 carries.
Then, as a head coach in GB, we've seen the following:
2006: 350+ carries between Green/Morency [capable starter]
2007: 300 carries between Grant/Morency/Wynn [mediocre backs...Grant was good, but he obviously came to the roster late in camp and took awhile to settle in]
2008: 350+ carries between Grant/Jackson [capable starter]
2009: 350 carries between Grant/Jackson/Green [capable starter, awful backups]
2010: 270 carries between Jackson/Kuhn [I'm amazed we even bothered to hand it off at all that year]
2011/2012: 270 carries between the top 2-3 backs, who were all mediocre at best

The issue isn't McCarthy IMO. The issue is that Thompson has put NO VALUE on a back since he's been here. He can't identify capable backs in the draft and has yet to draft even ONE back who becomes worth a damn to the team. Thompson is the one who has put our running game into the category of endangered species. It is clear from his history in charge of various offenses that McCarthy is more than willing to run a guy 300 times a year if he is capable. He just has never had that type of guy here outside of Ahman during McCarthy's first year here, who did get 266 carries in 14 games played. Even Ryan Grant was not a 300 carry a year type guy...he was a capable starter, but not a workhorse.