THE draft thread (2013 version)

[pbmax]

I would be up to re-mock the draft. I will take two teams if need be and stick it out until Round 7.

[woodbuck27]

Woody, I'll get into a reply here, but also will reference some of this in the "Trades" thread.

Since the draft thread began, I really was puzzled. It started in round 2. Thompson got the top rated running back AND a 6 for moving down 6 spots. That's a great deal right there, now. You and Wist were in tears over the whole deal. I get the idea with Wist. He's the great contrarian, everything TT and MM do it is bad, etc, etc. That's fine, every argument needs a good contrarian.

Your own concerns were a little harder to figure out. You idea was SF is the evil empire and they have fleeced the shit out of TT (& of course, the GBP).

My own response was, "is this guy shittin' me, that's a great trade". Then, I began to realize to evaluate the trade, you are referring the olde & ancient Jimmy Johnson chart from 20 - 25 years ago. Even on that chart, that trade is even. NFL teams don't use the Jimmy Johnson (JJ) chart anymore. They abandoned it for various reasons. It doesn't factor in future picks, or vet player trades. Also, it hasn't kept up with salary structures that have changed, mainly around the changing rookie levels, both up and down.

NFL teams use several different trade charts. 1. JJ enhanced Some teams revved up the JJ chart and made it work in the new times.
2. PR Pro Football Reference has a modern chart which allows for future picks and other smoothing factors
3. HSA You are a math minor? You'd love this trade chart which has more wrinkles than an old moose. Developed by some morons at Harvard Business school who wanted to make $ by fucking around with draft pick value charts. Some observers think the HSA is the superior draft charting system.
4. Custom You know Belichick has some kind of voodoo math chart that nobody else has, rumored, but not confirmed.

The chart you tout is old and not used anymore. But that ain't what the internet says. If you google the charts, all the responses are about the old, original JJ chart. Why? Young ass writers don't know any better, so they just copy what's out there & don't update themselves or their readers.

The real reason that you think Thompson had a terrible draft and got snookered by the 9ers & fins is....

TT did not draft to YOUR board.

You worked your ass off analyzing the draft and made your own board.

When TT did his own thing, you were outraged and yelped about every move that didn't meet your board.

Your board is just that, your board. TT's board is put together by the whole GBP staff, one that has a proven professional track record.

Your board is just your opinion.

Woody, you've stated that PackerRat posters could do better than TT. I don't think a whole village of PR posters would be able to do the job of a junior guy on TT's staff. It's a professional gig, one that requires knowledge and training for years to become effective.

All of us (out here) are just fans. Good, knowledgeable fans, but not able to put together the draft board T's staff has done.

Ky I would like to focus on the portion of confusion and The NFL Draft Trade Value Chart.

Since I've postede with you fellas I've used only this chart:

http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

DRAFTTEK...Could this site be wrong KY? I simply want to determine some standard of measurement. I always thought I (we) had one.The above have been used in the past and are still used for Team Draft trades. ** See References of proof of that.

http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

A prominant Draft Site and NFL Stat's Site ... PRO FOOTBALL Reference.Com:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm

** A Reference to where the JJ Chart was used in this draft in a Round One deal where the San Fran 49ers fleeced the Boys trading up to the Boys #18 slot to draft FS Eric Reid, LSU. Here the San Fran 49ers took The Cowboys for an 80 point differential trade value.

It's my observation based on all I know about fair trade value and that's available to me on the internet that TT got taken four times in four transactions. At least TT didn't get taken downtown as badly as the Cowboys.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/dallas-cowboys/headlines/20130426-cowboys-have-their-own-trade-value-chart-but-it-doesn-t-matter-in-draft.ece

** Another Reference and fun to read:

2013 NFL Draft:

The Demise Of The Trade Value Chart Is Greatly Exaggerated

By One.Cool.Customer ... Mar. 23, 2013, 5:00 PM

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/4/11/4174302/nfl-draft-trade-value-chart-jimmy-johnson

So there you go. That's all I've ever use. That's as far as I know what posters here have used when we discussed past drafts. What I post here says definitively that it's the current standard.

I'm 'only' recently aware that there are some other offerings. None of which in my research have hit the Big time. The actual NFL DRAFT. I hope that we can determine WTH is going on at Packerats and this matter. It shouldn't be confusing. If we all just go with the flow...it never is confusing. It also gets real chatty, mundane or boring.

I'm positive that at Packerrasts we have the knowledge and talent to discover the TRUTH in this issue.

KY...Your remarks about TT and his draft team. I appreciate your response and candor. Please read my post to pb that accounts for my 'still existing' stance on that.

Let's all keep the faith as a bottom line.

GO PACK GO !

[Patler]

Just curious, how close in point values does a trade have to be to be "fair"?
Is it a percentage of the highest pick traded, or what?

[Fritz]

Woody, Jimmy Johnson put that chart together 21 years ago to evaluate draft value. I thought that's what you referring to when you said you "checked the draft value's". That chart has been out-moded and not used for for quite a few years.

The NFL has changed a lot since Jimmah and Jerrah used that table of values There have been newer tables developed, some teams only use their own tables as rough guides, and some teams don't use 'em at all.

Using that old table, you figure that TT "lost" that trade with SF in the second round. TT traded down, got the RB he wanted, and picked up a 6th rnd pick. You use the ancient table and somehow think TT got snookered in the deal. You are dead nuts wrong in your assumptions.

But, you could end up right if Lacy busts. That is possible, Lacy is a good hand, but he also a plodder, he has a stomping running style that might not translate into a talented NFL running back. That's the crap shoot the NFL draft is.

TT creates his draft board based on the evaluations of his scouts. He then follows his scouts advice and makes his draft picks by religiously following his board. That is a radical departure from his predecessor. Shermy thought he knew better than his scouts and barred them from the draft room. I'll take TT and his methods. This regime uncovered two UDFA's who were out of position in college, we moved them to their NFL jobs and wound up with two NFL players out of the deal. Other teams scouting departments aren't uncovering guys like Dezman Moses and Sam Shields, the two guys I'm talking about. They are the football talent evaluating professionals, not rabid fans like you. You are so close to the forest, you can't see the trees (or the ground, maybe).

I believe in TT and his regime. It's good we have dedicated fans, but I'm glad the fans aren't drafting our talent for us. The fans are clueless in that regard.

Here, here. One of the differences I think maybe people don't see is the way fans view players versus the way NFL teams, particularly Thompson, sees them. Because of the fact that NFL GM's have a wealth of information (way more than we do, as KY reminds us) about a great number of players (way more than we do), they see players more like - for lack of a better term - cattle. We think that in the third round the Packers just have to take that one guy we've researched and feel is going to be just what the team needs. Thompson and other GM's see that guy in some tier, with a whole bunch of other guys, at different positions. And he sees a lot more tiers than we do. Where we see that one guy, or maybe three guys, that Thompson has to pick right there, Thompson sees that there are, according to his scouts and his own calculations, about thirty guys in roughly the same talent category. So he doesn't fall in love with a particular guy, like we do. He can move back 28 picks, get another draft choice later, and still get one of those thirty guys. In the meantime, we're outraged, because we worked so hard and we think we know.

And we don't know better than Thompson and his scouts. No fan does, unless he was a fan of the old Oakland Raiders, or the Detroit Lions in the Matt Millen days.

And even then, as to Woody's claim that seven or eight rat posters could run the draft better - that's if the rat poster doesn't poop his pants and panic. It's a lot more - it has to be a lot more - stressful and pressure-packed than we think it is as we kibbitz on the internet and drink our beers.

[Patler]

Here is a new trade value chart proposed by Walter Football:

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology321.php

[Patler]

Has the study from Harvard been linked here? If not, here it is:

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

[Patler]

This is another very interesting one, put together from an actual evaluation of player performances from 30 years of drafts. The interesting thing, I think, is that it shows that after the middle of the first round, the values of picks start to group together, with the groups getting larger the lower you go.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=527

[Patler]

Another proposal from Football Perspective, revised in 2012:

http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/

[pbmax]

That Draft Tek chart Woody links to is interesting. It rearranges the numbers to include compensatory picks, though the comp picks have no trade value because they cannot be traded.

That means for every comp pick prior to a regular draft pick, the trade value slides higher, relative to its overall rank. That value is only consistent if you consider the players taken with regular, not compensatory selections.

Therefore its value is overstated later in the draft.

[3irty1]

I would be up to re-mock the draft. I will take two teams if need be and stick it out until Round 7.

Sounds fun.

[pbmax]

One other thought about the Draft Tek chart. Its clearly based on the original JJ chart. I think the recent CBA and tighter controls on rookie deals actually makes this chart more effective than it was during the days of $40 million guaranteed to the top spot.

But it was also created before comp picks and unless I am mistaken, it utterly fails to account for them, esp as the number varies from year to year.

Have any of the newer charts taken this into account?

[3irty1]

One other thought about the Draft Tek chart. Its clearly based on the original JJ chart. I think the recent CBA and tighter controls on rookie deals actually makes this chart more effective than it was during the days of $40 million guaranteed to the top spot.

But it was also created before comp picks and unless I am mistaken, it utterly fails to account for them, esp as the number varies from year to year.

Have any of the newer charts taken this into account?

While this is very very big its probably still a minor component compared to the variation of top spots in each draft. This years first pick is worth SOOOO much worse than last years or next years where you could get Andrew Luck or Jadeveon Clowney. The pick is only as good as the player it can get.

[woodbuck27]

I would be up to re-mock the draft. I will take two teams if need be and stick it out until Round 7.

Hi pb:

One of my last thoughts before retiring last night:

If we decide to do this 'exercise'. An exercise not to prove anything in particular. Not projected with any intent to annoy/upset/offend any Packerrat that might be sensative to this matter. I believe this exercise merely looks at the 'No Trade Option' Vs Transactions in an NFL DRAFT. It's really just that simple.

Yet... as the person I am. I'm an Irish Canadian. I feel this need to elicit a precautionary note:

Doing this exercise won't likely be anything akin to voodoo. I don't want to bring on 'the jinx factor' or any bad karma.

If Ted Thompson and his Draft Team nail this draft we'll all be cheering. No serious Packer fan wish's for Ted Thompson to fall on his ass. Only 'clowns' point a finger at the likes of Wist43 and I or any other member of Packerrats who would sincerely participate in this, 'merely proposed' exercise.

I don't assume that anyone 'in reality' would be available to participate in the exercise pb.

The time factor to do this if we get the go ahead should be as short as possible. The weather is getting very nice now in Canada. A new spring brings new life. Some members of Packerrats have priorities other than Green Bay Packers.

My HABS ( the Montreal Canadians) begin what I hope is a playoff run this evening. After a long off season period of FA and Pre Draft/Draft participation here at my Packer home. I'll give myself a break from all things Green Bay Packers.

The method has to be set up to exclude 'the clown factor'. Those that might attempt to sabotage the exercise in any manner imaginable. The exercise once accepted, should ignore criticisms from posters that won't participate in good faith; otherwise sling darts at it for whatever principle a poster holds.

As to the basics and doing this exercise:

Would we choose to do a 'Seven Round' Mock Draft or

Maybe?, elect to accept the Datone Jones and Eddie Lacy picks in Rounds 1 and 2 respectively. Mock Rds 3-7 using 'only' the original pick ie #88;#122;#159;#167 Compensatory;#193 and #232. That's simply a five round 'six pick' Mock Draft.

That option doesn't cover this in 'a complete' seven round Mock:

Some that desire to participate might feel that 'the Green Bay Packers' had better options @ picks #26 and #55. ie When it came time to use pick #26. I was surprized that TT and his team had two very solid options:

DT Sylvester Williams and DE Datone Jones.

We're currently trying 'to discover' on the question of Draft Trade Value. That's a whole different exercise. One offering... other challenges.

GO PACK GO !

[woodbuck27]

One other thought about the Draft Tek chart. Its clearly based on the original JJ chart. I think the recent CBA and tighter controls on rookie deals actually makes this chart more effective than it was during the days of $40 million guaranteed to the top spot.

But it was also created before comp picks and unless I am mistaken, it utterly fails to account for them, esp as the number varies from year to year.

Have any of the newer charts taken this into account?

This matter of 'Fair' Draft Trade Value RE: NFL DRAFT transactions. Is far more complicated than I believed possible until this week. Old fashioned Guy's use Old fashioned methods.

As I'm seeing it now, and have moreso seen it... each day this week.

It's somewhat of a serious study.

PACKERS !

[woodbuck27]

That Draft Tek chart Woody links to is interesting. It rearranges the numbers to include compensatory picks, though the comp picks have no trade value because they cannot be traded.

That means for every comp pick prior to a regular draft pick, the trade value slides higher, relative to its overall rank. That value is only consistent if you consider the players taken with regular, not compensatory selections.

Therefore its value is overstated later in the draft.

I appreciate your brain here at Packerrats pb.

What a tremendous opportunity for us all to grow as Green Bay and NFL fans.

PACKERS !