Dynasty

[rbaloha1]

Bulaga is also said to have small hands. Clearly the guy doesn't have a chance to succeed.

I think it has been written a few times that Newhouse has long arms. Maybe he really plays like he is 6'5"?

Ya, 7th round draft picks like Tauscher, ....er, ..... I mean Wells, ...oh, silly senile old me, ....I mean DATKO, never turn out to be anything.

I like BB.

My takeaway has always been what Mcginn advocates -- change in mindset and roster to address the lack of physicality on the defensive side of the ball.

[rbaloha1]

This.

McGinn often writes some fine articles but his recent line of "The Packers are too small/not physical" is pretty obvious pandering and his use of numbers is glaringly one-sided and intended to create a wedge for the sake of driving interest.

What happened against the niners and giants in successive years? Maybe power failures were the answer.

The denial continues.

[denverYooper]

The reason I had started this thread in the first place was to get at some more context regarding how some current teams are built, starting with the recent super bowl winners and including some of the other top teams. My working theory is, and has been, that the NFL is essentially in a post-dynasty era, mostly due to the salary cap, and that the best a good GM can do is to position their team for multiple shots at the apple.

These next few years under relatively flat salary caps will be *very* interesting to observe from a team-building standpoint.

[rbaloha1]

Building a modern dynasty is working within the cap and finding the right players to beat the best teams.

Overall the Packers manage the cap well but do not have the right players on the defensive side of the ball to beat elite teams.

[denverYooper]

What happened against the niners and giants in successive years? Maybe power failures were the answer.

The denial continues.

Maybe it does. But it's not so simple as "The Packers weigh less."

We've discussed the team's problems against these teams before but they're different for different reasons.

Note, for instance, that the 49ers offensive line is not good simply because it is big. It is also filled with very athletic, smart high drafted players who are asked to do a lot in the running game. The Giants often have been successful with low round picks on their OL.

[3irty1]

1. What is puffy?

2. What is your solution to the Packers beating physically superior teams?

The TT era has been a nightmare for reporters as they are in the dark all the time. The result is speculation and analysis, which is very different from journalism.

My advice to beating physically superior teams is to become physically superior by moving from the left of this graph to the right.

Notice where the "physical" 49ers, Seahawks, and Vikings are on this graph.

[denverYooper]

By the way, I would wager my ability with numbers against Bob's any day of the week. Twice on Sundays.

[rbaloha1]

Maybe it does. But it's not so simple as "The Packers weigh less."

We've discussed the team's problems against these teams before but they're different for different reasons.

Note, for instance, that the 49ers offensive line is not good simply because it is big. It is also filled with very athletic, smart high drafted players who are asked to do a lot in the running game. The Giants often have been successful with low round picks on their OL.

You are interputing the simplicity. The mindset and coaching is also important.

The niners o-line is not just big -- it is fast powerful and athletic which beats small majority of the time.

Another TT protege built the niners just like the seahawks. So it is possible to have bigger, faster and more athletic players while managing cap.

[rbaloha1]

By the way, I would wager my ability with numbers against Bob's any day of the week. Twice on Sundays.

I am willing to buy your snake oil.

[mraynrand]

Yup, trust a writer with a plethora of resources than snarky twitty wannabe comedian rats.

sort of begs the question of why you even post here

[denverYooper]

I am willing to buy your snake oil.

Bob's a journalist. I have a Master's degree in computational biology, basically data mining/modeling/programming with huge, messy data sets.

[denverYooper]

How the 49ers were built. Notice that Baalkie inherited a lot of talent. We'll see if he continues to "manage their cap" and "maintain that roster".

http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/matt-maiocco/through-years-how-49ers-were-built

Terry DonahueSteve Mariucci (through 2002)
LS Brian Jennings, 2000, seventh round

Terry DonahueDennis Erickson (2003-04)
CB Shawntae Spencer, 2004, second round
NT Isaac Sopoaga, 2004, fourth round
P Andy Lee, 2004, sixth roundScot McCloughanMike Nolan (2005-08)
QB Alex Smith, 2005, first round
RB Frank Gore, 2005, third round
G Adam Snyder, 2005, third round
TE Vernon Davis, 2006, first round
TE Delanie Walker, 2006, sixth round
LB Parys Haralson, 2006, fifth round
LB Patrick Willis, 2007, first round
LT Joe Staley, 2007, first round
DE Ray McDonald, 2007, third round
FS Dashon Goldson, 2007, fourth round
CB Tarell Brown, 2007, fifth round
DE Justin Smith, 2008, free agent
G Chilo Rachal, 2008, second round
S Reggie Smith, 2008, third round
WR Joshua Morgan, 2008, sixth round

Scot McCloughanMike Singletary (2008-09)
LB Ahmad Brooks, 2008, waiver claim
FB Moran Norris, 2009, free agent
WR Michael Crabtree, 2009, first round
DT Ricky Jean Francois, 2009, seventh round
T Alex Boone, 2009, undrafted rookie

Trent BaalkeMike Singletary (2010)
WR Ted Ginn, trade
T Anthony Davis, first round
G Mike Iupati, first round
LB NaVorro Bowman, third round
WR Kyle Williams, sixth round
RB Anthony Dixon, sixth round
CB Tramaine Brock, undrafted rookie
DB C.J. Spillman, waiver claim

Trent BaalkeJim Harbaugh (2011)
LB Aldon Smith, first round
QB Colin Kaepernick, second round
CB Chris Culliver, third round
RB Kendall Hunter, fourth round
G Daniel Kilgore, fifth round
S Colin Jones, sixth round
FB Bruce Miller, seventh round
T Mike Person, seventh round
NT Ian Williams, undrafted rookie
DE Demarcus Dobbs, undrafted rookie
K David Akers, free agent
LB Larry Grant, free agent
CB Carlos Rogers, free agent
S Madieu Williams, free agent
C Jonathan Goodwin, free agent
LB Blake Costanzo, free agent
WR Braylon Edwards, free agent
S Donte Whitner, free agent
QB Scott Tolzien, waiver claim
LB Tavares Gooden, free agent
TE Justin Peelle, free agent
WR Brett Swain, free agent

[mraynrand]

Bob's a journalist. I have a Master's degree in computational biology, basically data mining/modeling/programming with huge, messy data sets.

If I give you ten dollars, would you run all my log rank statistical tests?

[pbmax]

Building a modern dynasty is working within the cap and finding the right players to beat the best teams.

Overall the Packers manage the cap well but do not have the right players on the defensive side of the ball to beat elite teams.

That's a terrible way to build a team. You might then do something dumb like draft 3 DBs in the first 3 rounds of a draft and then find yourself with only one viable player and a roster that has serious needs elsewhere*. Meanwhile, the passing offense you were trying to stop is killing you twice a year anyway.

The problem with McGinn's analysis is that he cherry picks certain recent acquisitions compares them to other cherry picked acquisitions on other teams and finds the Packers wanting. Even If McGinn has a point about the physical nature of the team (and he wasn't just talking about defense), it isn't made in this article in a persuasive way. Its just gravy to people who assume the 49ers roasted the Packers because of physical size and strength shortcomings.

The problem with the other conclusion you are drawing, that the Giants also beat the Packers physically, is that the Giants present a completely different physical challenge. The Giants pass rush often consists of 4 DEs rushing the QB. And one of those DEs is actually an OLB. The Packers have trouble pass protecting against that speed and quickness.

If you built an O line specifically to stop the Giants pass rush, you might be well undermanned to handle the 49ers strength.

The Packers don't need a change in approach, they need their picks and team healthy. If Bob had an idea how to prevent injuries, that article would be worth reading.


* Of course, if you are Ron Wolf and had been seized by a temporary case of Randy Moss paranoia, you then recover by trading one of the non-factors away for Ahman Green.

[mraynrand]

you added that part about Green before I could!