A Bloggers Reaction: Is Ted Thompson Closing Green Bay’s Window?

[sharpe1027]

That is my fear. I am hoping Rodgers goes low and guaranteed.

Assuming he stays healthy (knock on wood).

[sharpe1027]

They sign the occasional FA, and will trade picks for players when they think it helps them. Everyone thought Belichick was nuts when he traded a 2nd rounder to Miami for Welker.

TT would never do that. There are 3 basic areas of player procurement 1) draft 2) FA 3) trades. Belichick uses all 3; TT only uses the draft - trading fringe players for late rd picks doesn't count.

Several teams have passed us by in the NFC... so the reality is that we are a playoff team, but really not a true contender. If we're not a true contender, and TT will only procure players thru the draft, how many drafts will it take to fix all of our shortcomings and catch up to the teams that passed us??

IDK if "never" is a fair characterization. Reports are that he has tried to trade for players (Moss, Gonzalez), but he has been out bid by other teams. You can fault him for being unsuccessful, but to say he'd never pull the trigger on trades for players is probably inaccurate.

Perhaps he sticks to his assessment of the value of players, even if it means getting outbid by others. I can respect that. You can't get emotionally attached to a player just because you've spent time and energy to assess them.

[Patler]

You sometimes see QBs realize this after they struggle for a year or two. They then agree to restructure so that there is more money available to keep good players around them.

I also think this problem may surface once the revenue and salary cap starts slowing down over a few consecutive years. As long as the cap is growing quickly, teams can give QBs large contracts over many years. Early on, the contract seems out of proportion, but by the end of the contract it may actually be a good deal. This will change if the cap isn't growing fast.

There are, of course, considerations other than wins and losses. Keeping a star player (QB or otherwise) is good for the bottom line in terms of jersey sales, PR, etc.

That is exactly the problem right now. The salary cap has been fairly flat since 2009, but QB salaries have escalated significantly.

[sharpe1027]

That is exactly the problem right now. The salary cap has been fairly flat since 2009, but QB salaries have escalated significantly.

Yeah, the writing may be the wall, but I think it may take several clear instances of teams getting burned before you see a wholesale change in philosophy. In reality, some teams may already be there, but the QB salary trend will continue until there is a critical mass of teams that have reevaluated their cost/benefit analysis.

[woodbuck27]

Maybe it is time to start looking at the QB a little bit more like they do other positions. Be willing to pay the QB well, but if he wants the moon and the stars, get what you can for him. This will require some advance planning by having an alternative on hand. I'm not saying that the best QBs shouldn't be the highest paid on the team, but should he make twice as much or more than your Pro Bowl players at other positions?

I have said for a few years that WR salaries were out of line, and I think there is some indication in this off season that teams are starting to rethink how much a WR should be paid, especially one going after his 3rd contract or more. Eventually they may have to realize that a QB, no matter how good he is, really can't be paid more than about 10-12% of the salary cap, or it cripples the ability of the team to have decent players at too many other positions.

Good Patler. There's the TRUTH.

Your post... the emphasis of focus we need to concentrate a thread on. We need to produce a realistic model of a ' SMART CAP '. Refine/streamline that model to the point where as a forum we believe in it. That as Packer fans we accept it's validity and compare that to what the Green Bay Packers are doing in terms of actual player/position/salaries.

This idea that it's a forgone conclusion that the BIG THREE deserves a certain exorbatant percentage of the teams CAP isn't something that should be carved in stone. We need 'as a forum' to arrive at the better way.

GO PACKERS!

[woodbuck27]

It's hard to take it seriously when they overstate the cap space by $7 million or so.

Yes the author was mistaken in regard to the available CAP space but overall he was firing on all cylinders.

Your a smart man and I suggest reading the article again. It covers much more than a CAP space number.

I read that article three times and it's not unimpressive. The authors research for the article and it's content is accurate and overall very complimentry to Ted Thompson and the Green Bay Packers way.

To discount/disclaim it as not creditable because of an error,two/three. To disregard/label it negatively. Means 'missing the boat' in terms of it's overall message.

GO PACK GO!

[wist43]

Lol New England is the pasture that other teams put their hall of famers out to. Who are the FA's they've signed that you really covet?

It isn't that I covet anyone they've signed, it's that they actually use FA to fill holes. The most prominent one I remember would be Adalius Thomas - who was at the top of his game when they signed him. He didn't fit their scheme though - or at least they misused him, and the marriage didn't work out.

Belichick is always working the system to keep the team in the hunt. Can't stand him or them though... always root against them.

[Fritz]

Maybe it is time to start looking at the QB a little bit more like they do other positions. Be willing to pay the QB well, but if he wants the moon and the stars, get what you can for him. This will require some advance planning by having an alternative on hand. I'm not saying that the best QBs shouldn't be the highest paid on the team, but should he make twice as much or more than your Pro Bowl players at other positions?

I have said for a few years that WR salaries were out of line, and I think there is some indication in this off season that teams are starting to rethink how much a WR should be paid, especially one going after his 3rd contract or more. Eventually they may have to realize that a QB, no matter how good he is, really can't be paid more than about 10-12% of the salary cap, or it cripples the ability of the team to have decent players at too many other positions.

Dare we suggest that a truly visionary GM might trade Rodgers after this season?

[woodbuck27]

Dare we suggest that a truly visionary GM might trade Rodgers after this season?

How tough are you?

[smuggler]

Were Rodgers a UFA with the tag on him, a team that offered enough could have him. However, given the quality of the player, the price would be prohibitive.

In short, everyone is available for the right price.

[Fritz]

Were Rodgers a UFA with the tag on him, a team that offered enough could have him. However, given the quality of the player, the price would be prohibitive.

In short, everyone is available for the right price.

I believe Rodgers has two years left on his contract. Thus, you could play him this year, then trade him while he's still got one more year on the current contract.

If Ricky Williams could bag you an entire draft, what could Rodgers with one year left on hiscontract get you?

[Rutnstrut]

i started a thread awhile back where i asked if our window was closing

IMO, its gettinf close, if it hasn't already shut

the time to win was the last few years when a-rods contract allowed us to compete. from now on, he's gonna take up about 20% of our cap, all by himself. and rightfully so, the best player in the league should be the highest paid, so no fault of his. on the other side of the ball we have another superstar that needs a big contract, another of the top players in the nfl. in a couple years those two could be taking up 40 million or so by themselves.

we lost 3 team leaders already this offseason. we're gonna start hemorrhaging talent because we just can't afford to keep them all (jennings)

soon we're gonna be stuck with two superstars, and a bunch of first, second and third year guys not hitting their prime. in order for that to keep working, TT needs to keep drafting at a very high level

just a question. qb's are usually the highest paid guys because they are the most important. how many teams win the superbowl with very highly paid qb's? brady hasn't won in awhile, have others? peyton won a few years back, was he racking in the money then?

i really don't know, it's an honest question

This is why IMO you are one of the best posters on here, you are REALISTIC!!! It's great to be a homer once and a while, but there are just too many on this board that see everything through the green and gold colored glasses. I agree with your above post 100%, imo the Packers and especially TT have squandered the last few years.

[hoosier]

I believe Rodgers has two years left on his contract. Thus, you could play him this year, then trade him while he's still got one more year on the current contract.

If Ricky Williams could bag you an entire draft, what could Rodgers with one year left on hiscontract get you?

Interesting thought experiment. But is there a Mike Ditka out there today who would be willing to give up the king's ransom in draft picks that a Ricky Williams or Herschel Walker brought? And what would the Packers look like minus Rodgers? Would they even be a .500 team, or would they suddenly resemble the 2011 Colts minus Manning?

I suspect it is true that the hyperinflation of QB salaries is going to cause many GMs to rethink their strategies about team building, and that some teams will start to take a more traditional approach of starting with positions that are a better bargain, like OL and DL. But even if that happens, it seems to me that TTs draft-and-develop approach stands the best chance of being able to stay competitive with a high-priced QB. His margin of error in drafting will certainly be narrower, but in this climate that's a lot better than having a high salary QB and a GM who builds through FA.

[Patler]

I suspect it is true that the hyperinflation of QB salaries is going to cause many GMs to rethink their strategies about team building, and that some teams will start to take a more traditional approach of starting with positions that are a better bargain, like OL and DL. But even if that happens, it seems to me that TTs draft-and-develop approach stands the best chance of being able to stay competitive with a high-priced QB. His margin of error in drafting will certainly be narrower, but in this climate that's a lot better than having a high salary QB and a GM who builds through FA.

I agree. It will be necessary to have lots of players in their first contracts (cheap). Veteran backups will all but disappear, except for the occasional ancient one willing to play for a minimum salary half subsidized by the league. The "plus" for a draft-first mentality is that they should have a few extra picks in future years, because the salary cap will prevent them from re-signing a lot of their FAs, especially some expensive ones. Extra picks often foster trades of the regular picks, giving a draft-first guy the flexibility to move around in a given draft as he sees best, up, down or even into the next year.

[3irty1]

Interesting thought experiment. But is there a Mike Ditka out there today who would be willing to give up the king's ransom in draft picks that a Ricky Williams or Herschel Walker brought? And what would the Packers look like minus Rodgers? Would they even be a .500 team, or would they suddenly resemble the 2011 Colts minus Manning?

I suspect it is true that the hyperinflation of QB salaries is going to cause many GMs to rethink their strategies about team building, and that some teams will start to take a more traditional approach of starting with positions that are a better bargain, like OL and DL. But even if that happens, it seems to me that TTs draft-and-develop approach stands the best chance of being able to stay competitive with a high-priced QB. His margin of error in drafting will certainly be narrower, but in this climate that's a lot better than having a high salary QB and a GM who builds through FA.

This. And its already happening. The way I see it there are three types of teams:

1) Teams with expensive franchise QB's that are forced to build their rosters almost exclusively through the draft and when that fails on castoff free agents. The draft is the primary means of securing talent as players on 1st contracts often play way above their pay grade.

2) Teams that don't have franchise QB's and wish they did but in the meantime save enough money to buy up the cap casualties of the above teams in order to close some of the talent gap that comes with not having an ideal situation at the most important position in football.

3) Teams that have a franchise QB on a rookie contract who get the best of both worlds until that QB gets paid at market value.

QB salaries have been escalating disproportionately in comparison to the salary cap. From this it can be inferred that league rules and trends are favoring QB-driven teams, that there is a QB shortage, and/or that there is some sort of QB bubble that's inflating. Entirely possible since there is always pressure to break salary records in situations like with Manning, Flacco, and probably Rodgers. It also doesn't seem like the salary cap is keeping up with inflation.