$25 million man?

[Guiness]

While I don't disagree with your points if we don't pay him somewhere close to this someone else will. Are you comfortable with losing him? Who do you replace him with.

And we're all just guessing, of course. Will Rodgers demand that much because he needs 'respect' à la Flacco? We haven't seen that type of behaviour out of Rodgers, but who knows. Jennings certainly surprised me this off-season, so never say never.

I hope not, but if he does and there is someone else out there who will pay him it...I also hope TT get 3 first round choices for him! Cincy got a first and second for a 'retired' QB, so...!

[woodbuck27]

after looking at all the contracts that have been signed lately, i'm pretty sure i can start to comment in this thread

first thing to remember, a-rods last contract was a "real money/ real deal". there was no phoney money in that contract at all. it was a six year deal, and it was set up as a 6 year deal, where he would make it all.

when you look at other players that sign 6 year massive contracts, i usually turns out to be, in reality, 3 year deals or so with massive amounts of fake money in the last years of the contract that the players will never honestly see. this is to inflate the ego of the player and nothing more.

examples

Flacco signed a 6 year 120 million dollar deal with 52 million "guaranteed". this is all smoke and mirrors. he gets a 29 million dollar signing bonus, this is the only money he is "guaranteed" to get. the other 23 million "guaranteed" is guaranteed against injury only and is in the form of roster or option bonuses. meaning if he's cut before he sucks, he doesn't get it.

his pro rated cap hit over 5 years is 5.8 million a year

his cap hits are

2013- 6.8 million. 1 million salary and 5.8 pro rated signing bonus
2014- 14.8 million 6 million salary, 5.8 PRSB and a roster bonus of 3 million
2015- 14.55 million 4 million salary, 5.8 PRSB 4.75 roster bonus

2016- 28.55 million 18 in salary, 5.8 PRSB, 4.75 roster bonus
2017 - 31.15 million 20.6 salary, 5.8 signing bonus, 4.75 roster bonus
2018- 24.75 20 for salary, 4.75 roster

its really a 3 year 47.75 million dollar deal or 15.9 million a year(29 million signing bonus+(2013+2014+2015 salary)+ 2014 and 1015 roster bonuses

he will either be told to restructure after 2015 or he'll be cut. the penalty for releasing him would be 11.6 million. or if you use the june 1st rule you can spread the hit over two years

Nice work red.

Alot of work went into that post and the example post RE: Aaron Rodgers possible new contract. It works out to so much less than a $25 million per season CAP hit.

PACKERS !

[King Friday]

I would be surprised if Rodgers does a deal that is $25M a year. He doesn't seem to be a guy obsessed with being the first $25M guy or something like that, and the Packers are set up to actually be able to pay him what he's worth without doing a funny money contract. He recognizes that championships are what will ultimately define him, and every additional $1M he takes is less money the team has to surround him with capable talent. I'm guessing he would be fine with any deal that makes him the highest paid player in the game, because that is what he deserves. I doubt he will seek to hamstring the Packers with a deal that will handicap their ability to keep good young players on the roster.

I agree with Red. My guess is we'll see an extension out to 6 years worth around $120M...and Rodgers will be likely to see virtually all of the money in that contract. Unlike Manning, he'll get a reasonable signing bonus that will have to be prorated...but I'm guessing it won't be huge and the contract will be more frontloaded the first year instead, which in essence is guaranteed since I'm about 99.999999% certain Rodgers will be on the opening day roster for the Packers in 2013.

[pbmax]

Correct me if I'm wrong (likely possibility) but isn't Rodgers signed for another two years at around 12mil/year? If so, it simply means he's extended with a new average over the next six years to an average of just over 20mil/year which seems pretty reasonable. Especially if they front load a bit this year and then the cap goes up in 2015 with the new TV deal.

Good call Spaulding.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/03/31/romo-contract-underscores-importance-of-new-deal-for-rodgers/

[red]

Good call Spaulding.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...l-for-rodgers/

florio like many people on here are trying to compare a cap number to a salary number. big difference

[Mazzin]

Nfl.com currently has an article up, saying that the negotiations are at about a 2 million dollar difference. Am I allowed to provide the link or no?

[Patler]

florio like many people on here are trying to compare a cap number to a salary number. big difference

You are correct, generalities are not often accurate in discussing player contracts, but sometimes they can be som,ewhat enlightening, especially if the contract is relatively short. Depends on the details and whether the discussion is about the entire contract, or the impact at a given time during the contract. Sometimes the difference is negligible.

It can also be deceiving to look at salary as player income, because we all know that bonuses can be a huge part of it. That's why the arguments of a player "outplaying his contract" based on what his salary is that year is meaningless. Javon Walker's disagreement with GB was a good example of that. The more telling analysis is comparing performance to date and total compensation to date. Walker didn't look as much underpaid after 3 years when everything was considered.

[pbmax]

I think Rodgers case is an easier one for speculation than many for several reasons.

The Packers don't jam pack contracts with funny money often. The term being discusses (4 year extension) doesn't get into absurd assumptions about being able to play until he is forty. And we have 4 comparable deals that that details are well known (Brady, Manning, Brees and Flacco) and a recent one where just one detail is know (Romo's guarantees). There are few injury concerns beyond the normal uncertainty (unlike Manning).

Red's breakdown of Rodgers current deal is a good example of the straightforward approach Thompson generally uses.

Now the cap situation and the presence of Matthews and Raji's new contracts might force the packers to backload some of this and hope/pray for the cap to increase. We also don't know their projections of player costs.

But I think we can put some faith in the round numbers we have. The extension by itself would be around $25 mil per year but if, as seems likely, they add it to the existing contract, that average looks like it could be below $21 mil per year.

The differences between cap numbers and real money will be less here than with Romo and probably Flacco. It will be more a question of when the cap hits occur. Any money past three years needs to be evaluated for injury/inability to play anymore considerations too.

[woodbuck27]

Nfl.com currently has an article up, saying that the negotiations are at about a 2 million dollar difference. Am I allowed to provide the link or no?

Sure Mazzin...Fire that LINK to us.

It's OK to post LINKs here but never the entire article content.

[woodbuck27]

after looking at all the contracts that have been signed lately, i'm pretty sure i can start to comment in this thread

first thing to remember, a-rods last contract was a "real money/ real deal". there was no phoney money in that contract at all. it was a six year deal, and it was set up as a 6 year deal, where he would make it all.

when you look at other players that sign 6 year massive contracts, i usually turns out to be, in reality, 3 year deals or so with massive amounts of fake money in the last years of the contract that the players will never honestly see. this is to inflate the ego of the player and nothing more.

examples

Flacco signed a 6 year 120 million dollar deal with 52 million "guaranteed". this is all smoke and mirrors. he gets a 29 million dollar signing bonus, this is the only money he is "guaranteed" to get. the other 23 million "guaranteed" is guaranteed against injury only and is in the form of roster or option bonuses. meaning if he's cut before he sucks, he doesn't get it.

his pro rated cap hit over 5 years is 5.8 million a year

his cap hits are

2013- 6.8 million. 1 million salary and 5.8 pro rated signing bonus
2014- 14.8 million 6 million salary, 5.8 PRSB and a roster bonus of 3 million
2015- 14.55 million 4 million salary, 5.8 PRSB 4.75 roster bonus

2016- 28.55 million 18 in salary, 5.8 PRSB, 4.75 roster bonus
2017 - 31.15 million 20.6 salary, 5.8 signing bonus, 4.75 roster bonus
2018- 24.75 20 for salary, 4.75 roster

its really a 3 year 47.75 million dollar deal or 15.9 million a year(29 million signing bonus+(2013+2014+2015 salary)+ 2014 and 1015 roster bonuses

he will either be told to restructure after 2015 or he'll be cut. the penalty for releasing him would be 11.6 million. or if you use the june 1st rule you can spread the hit over two years

Yes red. You've got that modeled right. Is it based on actual contract figures?

I'm reading a ton of stuff lately and cannot determine if I read that info. or not.

Would you please respond with the LINK for those contract numbers.

Thanks.

GO PACKERS !

[Mazzin]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000156309/article/aaron-rodgers-green-bay-packers-closing-in-on-new-contract

Seems crazy, i would think both sides know the value.

[Patler]

I think Rodgers case is an easier one for speculation than many for several reasons.

The Packers don't jam pack contracts with funny money often. The term being discusses (4 year extension) doesn't get into absurd assumptions about being able to play until he is forty. And we have 4 comparable deals that that details are well known (Brady, Manning, Brees and Flacco) and a recent one where just one detail is know (Romo's guarantees). There are few injury concerns beyond the normal uncertainty (unlike Manning).

Red's breakdown of Rodgers current deal is a good example of the straightforward approach Thompson generally uses.

Now the cap situation and the presence of Matthews and Raji's new contracts might force the packers to backload some of this and hope/pray for the cap to increase. We also don't know their projections of player costs.

But I think we can put some faith in the round numbers we have. The extension by itself would be around $25 mil per year but if, as seems likely, they add it to the existing contract, that average looks like it could be below $21 mil per year.

The differences between cap numbers and real money will be less here than with Romo and probably Flacco. It will be more a question of when the cap hits occur. Any money past three years needs to be evaluated for injury/inability to play anymore considerations too.

The Packers have had a pay-as-you-go approach for quite some time. Even Brett Favre's last Packer contract, which was for 10 years and made him the league's highest paid player, was pretty simple and straightforward. About the most extravagant contracts details that I can recall recently where the unusual roster bonuses for both Mike Wahlel and AJ Hawk that resulted in each being released. Typically, the Packers do not include unrealistic payments to artificially inflate the value of contracts.

In some ways, I wish the Packers were considering a longer contract with Rogers. With only a four-year extension, another mega-deal will be required in the not too distant future, and after he wins another two or three super Bowls his price will only go up!

[woodbuck27]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100...n-new-contract

Seems crazy, i would think both sides know the value.

Reading that makes me feel comfortable that Ted Thompson will not sell out to any possibility of greed on the other side. That he's not going to reward Aaron Rodgers' with any more than is a solid business arrangement. Aaron Rodgers will be rewarded with slightly more sheckles per season than Joe Flacco. Now here's the qualifier of legitimacy **.

If it was me as Packer GM and Joe Flacco at $20.1 Million$. My offer would work out to $20.2 million$ for Aaron Rodgers. Of course, that might have to be re-negotiated as future QB payout trends go; in terms specific to Aaron Rodgers performance.

I'm getting double comfort. Reading between the lines informs me that Aaron Rodgers' agent David Dunn, is acting reasonably and in good faith as concerns the Green Bay Packers salary CAP.

** Nothing is perfect and that $2 million$ discrepency alarms me in terms of definition or application.

GO PACKERS !

[red]

Yes red. You've got that modeled right. Is it based on actual contract figures?

I'm reading a ton of stuff lately and cannot determine if I read that info. or not.

Would you please respond with the LINK for those contract numbers.

Thanks.

GO PACKERS !

yes, it is all the real numbers

i get all my cap numbers and info from spotrac.com. best site i've found

[woodbuck27]

yes, it is all the real numbers

i get all my cap numbers and info from spotrac.com. best site i've found

I've got their homepage on my taskbar right now.

Thanks red.

I just added this to my Aaron Rodgers file.

Joe Flacco:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/joe-flacco/