Mockzilla 2013

[3irty1]

Bretsky asked me to do a mock draft so this is what I came up with. Consider this draft equal parts "what I think Ted would do" and "what I want Ted to do."

Pick #26
EJ Manuel | QB | Florida State
6’5” 240 lbs
Whaaaaaat?! 3irty1 are you crazy?!

In the 2013 draft it is hard to find value at the top so it is a good time to invest in the future. Does that mean that EJ Manuel will eventually replace Aaron Rodgers? Of course it doesn’t. First round contracts are normally 5 year contracts. In that time, the Packers can leverage McCarthy’s skills as a QB developer and in 3 or 4 years this 1st round pick could breed more high picks in a trade.

Also consider his value to the Packers in the meantime. Backup QB is not a position to be taken likely. Consistently winning without good quarterback play just doesn’t happen so an insurance policy is not a wasted pick IMO. Manuel represents a tremendous upgrade over Graham Harrell--in fact I’d say no position on the team could be upgraded more with this pick. The Packers’ backup QB runs the scout team which means playing the role of opposing QB’s against the first team defense in practice. From this point of view, Manuel is a win now pick. Our first two games this year are against the 49ers and Washington... Personally I don’t feel that Graham Harrell is capable of being a very convincing simulation of Kaepernick or RGIII but Manuel is exactly that type of dual threat QB. Furthermore he’s a proven winner in a proven program as Ted has searched for with nearly all of his QB picks in Rodgers, Brohm, Flynn, and Harrell.

Pick #55
David Amerson | CB | NC State
6’2” 205 lbs
Amerson was exposed pretty badly in 2012 for getting too cute in man coverage and letting players get behind him for big plays. Nonetheless, Amerson has undeniable playmaker instincts and a move to safety is all that he needs to bury his flaws as a cornerback. Amerson has sideline to sideline speed, fantastic size, and is a willing hitter. His ball skills are second to none in this class. In duo with Morgan Burnett, the Packers would have two athletic safeties that have the ability to win the game for you with their nose for the ball. I prefer Amerson to a safety like Eric Reid simply because he gives us a different mold from what we’ve already got in McMillian.

Pick #88
Aaron Dobson | WR | Marshall
6’3” 210 lbs
Dobson comes with the stock features of every Ted WR including smooth route running skills, sharp cuts, and glue hands. He’s also got a pretty impressive package of options including elite concentration to make circus catches, deceptive long-strided deep speed similar to Jordy Nelson, and the ability to high-point the ball. One of only two draft eligible WR that didn’t drop a pass last season.

Pick #122
Hugh Thornton | OG | Illinois
6’3” 320 lbs
Wouldn’t be a Ted Thompson draft if it didn’t have a positionally ambiguous lineman in the midrounds who was ~6’4” and ~310 lbs who had at least a 4.6 shuttle and 7.6 3-cone. I only found two such guys in this draft but Thornton plays with a nasty mean-streak that I think Ted will like. He’s also a 2 time state wrestling champ.

Pick #159
Josh Boyce | WR | TCU
6’1” 209 lbs
An obvious choice for the Packers. Boyce has all the ingredients for the packers WR recipe. He’s got soft hands and runs solid routes. Most see him as a slot WR as he is a terror with the ball in his hands but he’s got the long speed to be a deep threat and a savy enough route runner that he’ll be able to do it all, especially with a QB that doesn’t need a big target.

Pick #167 (comp)
Josh Boyd | DT | Mississippi State
6’3” 310 lbs
My favorite fit for our 2-gap 30 front in this draft. Boyd is an exceptionally smooth athlete for a big man. He’s not going to penetrate gaps or rack up sacks but he can control a man with his length and playing strength. He’s also got a non-stop motor for making plays in pursuit. Similar player to John Jolly, a guy you can never get enough of.

Pick #193
Miguel Maysonet | RB | Stony Brook
5’9” 210 lbs
Not exactly the sexy solution most Packer fans were hoping for at the RB position but Miguel will win them over. He’s not the biggest or the fastest or the Wisconsin Bagerest but he protects the ball, shows great but underused hands, makes quick decisions, and furiously competes for every yard available. Together with DuJuan Harris McCarthy will have enough to open up the playbook.

Pick #232
Eric Martin | LB | Nebraska
6’1” 237 lbs
Played DE at Nebraska where he had a lot of success as a pass rusher his senior year. He had very good pro day workout that suggests he should be able to cover plenty of ground in space (3.98 SS and 6.69 3C). He’s got a nasty playing style and is also one of the better special teamers in the draft. Like Brad Jones as a prospect, Martin is a guy who has enough upside to make something of himself on defense at multiple positions and enough versatility to be useful in the meantime.

[pbmax]

You sold me when you described Amerson at safety, but if Ted goes offense 2 out of the top 3 rounds, a riot will break out in the Atrium and on PackerRats.

[pittstang5]

You know your going to get some flack for EJ Manuel. I applaud your mock draft. Nothing surprises me with TT, so you can't rule that out. You've got some names on there that I haven't researched yet. Thanks for more work. Lol

[pittstang5]

I also have Maysonet on my TT list - haven't decided if he's on my list yet. But I was thinking TT takes him earlier - 5th round.

[red]

You're fucking high

If we take a qb in the first, i'll auto asphyxiate myself

[Joemailman]

I mean really, who could possibly think Ted Thompson would draft a QB on the 1st round when he already has a Pro Bowl QB and needs to fill on defense?

3irty1, does this happen after unsuccessfully trying to trade down, or would you take Manuel without even trying?

I find the Amerson pick very intriguing.

E. J. Manuel uses initials that end in J, so he would be a good fit there.

[3irty1]

You sold me when you described Amerson at safety, but if Ted goes offense 2 out of the top 3 rounds, a riot will break out in the Atrium and on PackerRats.

You sure about that? Not the riots but that we're more needy on defense? I feel in 2012 the defense improved considerably while the offense came down to earth. The #11 and #5 rankings would seem to show that neither unit is in such serious need that rookies can be the answer. I'd argue the biggest offseason loss on any unit is the loss of Jennings who was a starter for the offense. If you simply look at the roster and ask "What positions is it easiest to make the team?" I'd say in order: WR, C, S, QB, OLB, DE.

I mean really, who could possibly think Ted Thompson would draft a QB on the 1st round when he already has a Pro Bowl QB and needs to fill on defense?

3irty1, does this happen after unsuccessfully trying to trade down, or would you take Manuel without even trying?

I find the Amerson pick very intriguing.

E. J. Manuel uses initials that end in J, so he would be a good fit there.

You can think of it as a doomsday scenario if you'd like. I do feel it will be exceptionally hard to trade down in this draft given the depth of it. It might be more likely that we trade up to get out of the spot we're in. Of the players I think will likely be available at #26 and fill one of the above needs for the packers, I feel most of them are a reach where I feel EJ Manuel isn't. The argument I made for the pick I feel is valid. #26 is only as good as the player it can net you and in this draft the difference between #26 and #50 isn't as wide as it usually is, for this reason I'd like trade #26 for a future first where the value would be greater. I don't think fans would riot if Ted traded his pick for a future first rounder--this can be seen as a similar move but also solves an immediate and understated roster deficiency and with potential for a far greater RTI. With a few McCarthy offseasons a guy like Manual can be an underpaid version of Cam Newton in an NFL where that type of quarterback's value has never been higher.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I mean really, who could possibly think Ted Thompson would draft a QB on the 1st round when he already has a Pro Bowl QB and needs to fill on defense?

I know this is said in jest, but Rodgers isn't 35 and he hasn't been talking about retirement every offseason.

[Carolina_Packer]

David Bass is a really intriguing prospect as a later round pick-up. Missouri Western is a DII school, so you have to consider level of competition, but he apparently dominated that, which means he might have a shot at the next level. Click here for link to highlight reel.

RB Michael Hill is the school's stud from the last few years. Look at his gaudy stats. Again, for the smaller schools, I look at whether they dominate at that level, and he clearly did. He is worth a look. Click here for his highlight reel.

Who would have thought, a strong offensive and defensive prospect from the same school, same year.

Who do these player compare to?

[Joemailman]

I'm skeptical that Manuel would ever net the Packers a first round pick. Teams looking for a starting QB are usually coming off a losing season which would make the pick a high 1st round pick. Alex Smith had led the 49ers to the NFC Title Game in 2011 and was playing very well in 2012 before he was hurt. Yet he netted the 49ers only a 2nd and 3rd.

[pbmax]

You sure about that? Not the riots but that we're more needy on defense? I feel in 2012 the defense improved considerably while the offense came down to earth. The #11 and #5 rankings would seem to show that neither unit is in such serious need that rookies can be the answer. I'd argue the biggest offseason loss on any unit is the loss of Jennings who was a starter for the offense. If you simply look at the roster and ask "What positions is it easiest to make the team?" I'd say in order: WR, C, S, QB, OLB, DE.

Good question. Overall talent needs are probably equal esp. if we consider contracts. Defense needs another OLB (only three on roster if Perry healthy), maybe two DL (health, contracts and supplement NT), and safety. Don't see them taking an ILB with the roster as it is unless really high value presents itself. So thats 4 bodies on D that could go from roster to rotation easily. I love the CBs though if they doubt Tramon they could grab another one.

Offense needs Center, RB, TE (contract, body type and Quarless injury) and WR. That's four. WR depth or speed would be great but is not likely to see field. Like a NT on D, a rookie center could, though not likely, to start. Others (RB, TE) could easily see the field as a rookie. QB is the mystery, as no one expects them to actually trust Graham, but that is just the kind of thing Thompson and McCarthy would do.

So needs-wise I barely give the edge to the D. Same number of needs but more PT available. But you make a fair point that its close enough that 2/3 early picks could be O especially after the 6 D picks last year.

I would rank the needs as DL (DE replace Worthy), C, TE, S, DL (replace a NT), WR, OLB. All the above assume Bulaga and Sherrod are going to be healthy.

But I still predict riots if Manuel is the pick. I am a believer though, if Teddy thinks he's Rodgers, I could see it though I would expect a trade down first.

[George Cumby]

This is the kind of post and poster that keeps me coming back to this joint.

Nice work, 31. I love the guard out of illinois

[Joemailman]

But I still predict riots if Manuel is the pick. I am a believer though, if Teddy thinks he's Rodgers, I could see it though I would expect a trade down first.

Manuel might get the Justin Harrell treatment if he's the pick.

[rbaloha1]

Comedy Central enters the thread.

Too comical to merit a response.

[3irty1]

I'm skeptical that Manuel would ever net the Packers a first round pick. Teams looking for a starting QB are usually coming off a losing season which would make the pick a high 1st round pick. Alex Smith had led the 49ers to the NFC Title Game in 2011 and was playing very well in 2012 before he was hurt. Yet he netted the 49ers only a 2nd and 3rd.

Don't put Alex Smith on a pedestal. Manuel is already worth more than him without throwing a single pass in the NFL because Manuel is still wet clay. Smith is in his 9th season of the NFL and has a career passer rating of 79.1. He's a kiln dried turd. 3 or 4 years from now if Manuel did nothing but spot start and was still largely unmeasured, the fact that he's unmeasured works as much for us as it does against us. If he's not proven then its also not proven he won't be a hall of famer. A closer comparison is the Hasselbeck or Matt Schab trades although with Manuel's considerably higher upside it makes sense that he could draw even more interest.