A Study on the effectiveness of Bum Mining

[RashanGary]

I'd go something like that.

Aaron Rodgers 100
Nick Collins 40
Terrance Murphy 5
Marviel Underwood 5
Brady Poppinga 15
Junius Coston 5
Mike Hawkins 5
Michael Montgomery 10
Craig Bragg 0
Kurt Campbell 0
Will Whitticker 7.5
AJ Hawk 17.5
Daryn Colledge 20
Greg Jennings 35
Abdul Hodge 10
Jason Spitz 17.5
Cory Rodgers 0
Will Blackmon 10
Ingle Martin 0
Tony Moll 15
Johnny Jolly 20
Tyrone Culver 0
Dave Tollefson 15
Justin Harrell 5
Brandon Jackson 12.5
James Jones 25
Aaron Rouse 5
Allen Barbre 5
David Clowney 2.5
Korey Hall 15
Desmond Bishop 20
Mason Crosby 12.5
DeShawn Wynn 2.5
Clark Harris 0
Jordy Nelson 30
Brian Brohm 0
Pat Lee 15
Jermichael Finley 20
Jeremy Thompson 0
Josh Sitton 35
Breno Giacomini 12.5
Matt Flynn 15
Brett Swain 7.5
BJ Raji 35
Clay Matthews 60
TJ Lang 20
Quinn Johnson 5
Jamon Meredith 0
Jarius Wynn 7.5
Brandon Underwood 5
Brad Jones 15
Bryan Bulaga 25
Mike Neal 15
Morgan Burnett 15
Andrew Quarless 5
Marshall Newhouse 15
James Starks 10
CJ Wilson 12.5


That's as far as I'd go. The rest we'll have to wait on.

[pbmax]

Pro Football Reference says you and Bobble are welcome, 3irty1.

http://goo.gl/sbWaT

Rk               Player From   To Draft  Tm  Lg     G    GS  Yrs   PB  AP1   AV
1         Aaron Rodgers 2005 2012  1-24 GNB NFL    85    78    8    2    1   90
2         Greg Jennings 2006 2012  2-52 GNB NFL    96    86    7    2    0   64
3             A.J. Hawk 2006 2012   1-5 GNB NFL   110   107    7    0    0   55
4          Nick Collins 2005 2011  2-51 GNB NFL    95    95    7    3    0   51
5         Clay Matthews 2009 2012  1-26 GNB NFL    58    55    4    3    1   49
6        Daryn Colledge 2006 2012  2-47 TOT NFL   112   108    7    0    0   48
7           Josh Sitton 2008 2012 4-135 GNB NFL    73    64    5    0    0   37
8     Jermichael Finley 2008 2012  3-91 GNB NFL    64    43    5    0    0   36
9           James Jones 2007 2012  3-78 GNB NFL    90    32    6    0    0   36
10         Jordy Nelson 2008 2012  2-36 GNB NFL    73    25    5    0    0   33
11       Brady Poppinga 2005 2012 4-125 TOT NFL   100    57    8    0    0   29
12            B.J. Raji 2009 2012   1-9 GNB NFL    60    47    4    1    0   24
13            T.J. Lang 2009 2012 4-109 GNB NFL    59    34    4    0    0   22
14         Bryan Bulaga 2010 2012  1-23 GNB NFL    37    33    3    0    0   20
15          Jason Spitz 2006 2012  3-75 TOT NFL    75    45    7    0    0   20
16       Desmond Bishop 2007 2012 6-193 GNB NFL    69    26    6    0    0   19
17         Johnny Jolly 2006 2009 6-183 GNB NFL    48    39    4    0    0   19
18         Randall Cobb 2011 2012  2-64 GNB NFL    30     8    2    0    0   18
19      Brandon Jackson 2007 2012  2-63 TOT NFL    54    16    6    0    0   17
20    Marshall Newhouse 2011 2012 5-169 GNB NFL    32    29    2    0    0   16

                                                Games Games Misc Misc Misc Misc
Rk               Player From   To Draft  Tm  Lg     G    GS  Yrs   PB  AP1   AV
21       Morgan Burnett 2010 2012  3-71 GNB NFL    36    36    3    0    0   13
22           Brad Jones 2009 2012 7-218 GNB NFL    51    23    4    0    0   13
23            Tony Moll 2006 2011 5-165 TOT NFL    63    22    6    0    0   13
24      Breno Giacomini 2008 2012 5-150 TOT NFL    32    24    3    0    0   12
25         James Starks 2010 2012 6-193 GNB NFL    22     4    3    0    0   11
26      Mike Montgomery 2005 2010 6-180 GNB NFL    58     8    6    0    0    9
27          C.J. Wilson 2010 2012 7-230 GNB NFL    42    12    3    0    0    9
28       Jamon Meredith 2009 2012 5-162 TOT NFL    31    16    4    0    0    8
29          Aaron Rouse 2007 2009  3-89 TOT NFL    41    18    3    0    0    8
30         Allen Barbre 2007 2011 4-119 TOT NFL    32     7    5    0    0    7
31           Korey Hall 2007 2011 6-192 TOT NFL    61    26    5    0    0    7
32       Dave Tollefson 2007 2012 7-253 TOT NFL    77     2    6    0    0    7
33        Will Blackmon 2006 2011 4-115 TOT NFL    43     2    6    0    0    6
34           D.J. Smith 2011 2012 6-186 GNB NFL    22     9    2    0    0    6
35          Jarius Wynn 2009 2012 6-182 TOT NFL    43     4    4    0    0    6
36           Alex Green 2011 2012  3-96 GNB NFL    16     4    2    0    0    5
37      Andrew Quarless 2010 2012 5-154 GNB NFL    23     5    3    0    0    5
38      Will Whitticker 2005 2005 7-246 GNB NFL    15    14    1    0    0    5
39        Junius Coston 2005 2007 5-143 GNB NFL    16     7    3    0    0    4
40        Casey Hayward 2012 2012  2-62 GNB NFL    16     7    1    0    0    4

                                                Games Games Misc Misc Misc Misc
Rk               Player From   To Draft  Tm  Lg     G    GS  Yrs   PB  AP1   AV
41          Ryan Taylor 2011 2012 7-218 GNB NFL    31     1    2    0    0    4
42        D.J. Williams 2011 2012 5-141 GNB NFL    26     2    2    0    0    4
43        David Clowney 2008 2010 5-157 TOT NFL    28     3    3    0    0    3
44           Matt Flynn 2008 2012 7-209 TOT NFL    37     2    5    0    0    3
45        Quinn Johnson 2009 2012 5-145 TOT NFL    40    13    4    0    0    3
46         Jerel Worthy 2012 2012  2-51 GNB NFL    13     4    1    0    0    3
47         DeShawn Wynn 2007 2010 7-228 TOT NFL    23     4    4    0    0    3
48         Mike Daniels 2012 2012 4-132 GNB NFL    14     0    1    0    0    2
49         Lawrence Guy 2011 2012 7-233 TOT NFL     8     2    2    0    0    2
50       Justin Harrell 2007 2010  1-16 GNB NFL    14     2    3    0    0    2
51         Clark Harris 2008 2012 7-243 TOT NFL    63     0    5    0    0    2
52          Abdul Hodge 2006 2010  3-67 TOT NFL    35     1    4    0    0    2
53          Davon House 2011 2012 4-131 GNB NFL    11     5    2    0    0    2
54          Patrick Lee 2008 2012  2-60 TOT NFL    38     1    4    0    0    2
55           Nick Perry 2012 2012  1-28 GNB NFL     6     5    1    0    0    2
56    Brandon Underwood 2009 2010 6-187 GNB NFL    23     0    2    0    0    2
57      Michael Hawkins 2005 2006 5-167 TOT NFL    18     1    2    0    0    1
58     Jerron McMillian 2012 2012 4-133 GNB NFL    16     0    1    0    0    1
59            Mike Neal 2010 2012  2-56 GNB NFL    19     0    3    0    0    1
60   Caleb Schlauderaff 2011 2012 6-179 NYJ NFL     6     1    2    0    0    1

                                                Games Games Misc Misc Misc Misc
Rk               Player From   To Draft  Tm  Lg     G    GS  Yrs   PB  AP1   AV
61        Derek Sherrod 2011 2012  1-32 GNB NFL     5     0    2    0    0    1
62          Brett Swain 2009 2011 7-217 TOT NFL    27     2    3    0    0    1
63      Jeremy Thompson 2008 2009 4-102 GNB NFL    15     3    2    0    0    1
64    Marviel Underwood 2005 2005 4-115 GNB NFL    16     0    1    0    0    1
65          Brian Brohm 2009 2010  2-56 BUF NFL     3     2    2    0    0    0
66         B.J. Coleman 2012 2012 7-243 GNB NFL                1    0    0    0
67         Mason Crosby 2007 2012 6-194 GNB NFL    96     0    6    0    0    0
68         Andrew Datko 2012 2012 7-241 GNB NFL                1    0    0    0
69         Ricky Elmore 2011 2012 6-197 TOT NFL     0     0    2    0    0    0
70      Terrell Manning 2012 2012 5-163 GNB NFL     5     0    1    0    0    0
71         Ingle Martin 2006 2006 5-148 GNB NFL     1     0    1    0    0    0
72      Terrence Murphy 2005 2005  2-58 GNB NFL     3     0    1    0    0    0

[pbmax]

Its slightly frightening how close Justin was to Rodgers and Matthews.

[rbaloha1]

Admire your patience and research -- very McGinn like LOL

[wist43]

3irty1, thanks for starting the thread - I thought this needed to be discussed, but knew I couldn't be the one to start the thread b/c I'm somewhat of a polarizing figure. That said, I'll dig in...

1) A few things jump out right away, and you mentioned one of them - it would take 244 picks in rds 4-7 to get you to a starting lineup of 22 players; but we don't need all 22, all we need is 12 - but even getting to that number you would need to draft 133 players. In 8 years, you would have to average 17 players per year, every year, and only after the 8 year period would you have a starting lineup... lol

Obviously undoable, but then again you really don't even need to get to the 12 number, b/c TT has filled in some of the spots thru street FA's and UFA. The reason I would argue that those have to be thrown out though, is b/c I assume most of those signings would have happened either way - and, even if someone argued the signings might be different, we have no way of knowing or projecting that, so we have to agree that those players are neutral.

So out would be EDS, Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Pickett. That's 4 more spots off the total - that brings you down to 8. That would bring you down to 90 players you would need to draft, in an 8 year span you would have to average 11 picks per year, every year - and again, only after the 8 year period would you have a starting lineup.

2) The other thing that jumped out at me, is a relatively minor point, but it would affect your numbers - you do have to throw out the 3 guys whose disposition you don't know. You can't assume them misses, and you can't include them as picks either b/c they are unknown variables that cannot be accounted for - to assume them either way would introduce bias, and invalidate your results.

---------------------------------------------

I took a quick look at the value chart you linked - instead of reverse engineering how you arrived at a total (my brain is too fried tonight), can you just tell me how you arrived at the number, and who was included and excluded? In order to look at how you arrived at your conclusion, I have to see how you got there. I could figure it out, but really, lol... my brain is fried

How did you arrive at 14,054 and 1,518.70??

---------------------------------------------

3) And finally I would point out the obvious - your odds of hitting on a quality starter are considerably better in the first 3 rounds.

Using the same criteria, In evaluating TT's hit/miss rate in the first 3 rounds we have to treat these draft picks the same as the other group. We have to include all known datapoints, which means Jennings, Collins, Colledge, et al and whoever else have to be included. The only draft picks left off are unknowns (which would be subject to discussion - although I would argue some of them are likely to be hits):

Hits
Rodgers, Collins, Colledge, Jennings, Hawk, J. Jones, Finley, Nelson, Matthews, Raji, Burnett, Bulaga, Cobb, and Hayward.

Misses
Brohm, Lee, Harrell, Murphy, Jackson, Rouse, Hodge, and Spitz.

Unknowns
Perry, Worthy, Sherrod, Green, and Neal.

I suspect Perry is a hit, and Neal is coming on, but we don't know for sure, so I left them off. Throw out the unknowns (bias), that comes to 22 picks, of which 14 are hits.

14/22 = 63.6%

---------------------------------------------------------------------

In summation, by my undermisestimated logic


TT's hit rate in rounds 1-3 = 63.6%

TT's hit rate in rounds 4-7 = 9.09%

I think those numbers support my argument very well.

[3irty1]

Those value numbers are merely the sum of the point values for all picks in the round(s) as given by the draft trade chart I linked to.

One point that I'd like to get opinions on, espeically wist, is the idea of player coefficients. By not including them, it assumes an underlying philosophy that a team is only as good as its worst starter. Do you feel that's right?

What to do with Greg Jennings? He's been a good packer, but his value no longer counts for us. If this is a measure of all the picks we had to make to procure the roster we've got... we took Greg Jennings and now he's not on the team. The benefit to that pick is almost over. I say almost because he'll net us a comp pick in 2014 and that pick will add value in a measurable way. I don't feel we can include Jennings, Collins, Colledge, etc. As far as 2013 is concerned... those guys are bums.

I agree its too early to use many of the players from the last two drafts. Cobb can be counted, probably Hayward as well. I'll update this in the afternoon and post the results.

[3irty1]

I like Harrell's numbers and they are quite close to those that pb found. One big question here though that ultimately boils down to:

Should a draft pick be measured in 2013 by how much it helps the Packers in 2013 or by how much that pick has done for the franchise overall?

This is asking the broader question of the Greg Jennings situation above. Guys like Hawk have done a little each year for a lot of years and Hayward just burst in last year. But who would you rather have in 2013 and is that even the right question?

[Patler]

Isn't the point of this exercise to determine the likelihood of finding capable players at various draft slots? The fact that Jennings, Colledge and others have left in free agency doesn't change TT's success at picking them. In fact, I would suggest that if TT cuts Trotter this year, and he goes on to a long, distinguished career with the Vikings, for the purposes of evaluating the draft, he goes in the "plus" column. If evaluating TT's roster decisions, he would be a big "minus".

[pbmax]

I agree with Patler, finding the player is a separate exercise than roster management or development to keep him. A surplus of CBS shouldn't detract from finding another good one.

There is an associated cost of taking a player at a position of relative strength rather than a position of weakness, but that is going to be hard to quantify. Especially since the weak starter will be accounted for by the drafted player who is still there.

[pbmax]

On young players, if they have surpassed others who were merely backups for one or two years (Matthews if we did this exercise on 2010, Cobb or Hayward) then they have to count. A certain number of starts should count as well. But then there is the question about what to do with others from the same draft class who have done nothing.

I say include them, the results will then reflect the problem of getting a rookie player up to speed.

[3irty1]

Isn't the point of this exercise to determine the likelihood of finding capable players at various draft slots? The fact that Jennings, Colledge and others have left in free agency doesn't change TT's success at picking them. In fact, I would suggest that if TT cuts Trotter this year, and he goes on to a long, distinguished career with the Vikings, for the purposes of evaluating the draft, he goes in the "plus" column. If evaluating TT's roster decisions, he would be a big "minus".

I believe what we're measuring is the value of various draft slots to the Packers when Ted Thompson is the one handing in the cards.

One thing to take into account is why Jennings, Colledge, Giacomini, etc are off the team and the answer is that Ted has displaced them with continued success at the same position. Not including them is a way of accounting for the diminishing returns of finding more starters than can start. Collins on the other hand...

[pbmax]

I believe what we're measuring is the value of various draft slots to the Packers when Ted Thompson is the one handing in the cards.

One thing to take into account is why Jennings, Colledge, Giacomini, etc are off the team and the answer is that Ted has displaced them with continued success at the same position. Not including them is a way of accounting for the diminishing returns of finding more starters than can start. Collins on the other hand...

If you exclude them, the results will reflect more on the current roster. If we choose to exclude young players, the list of players in this exercise gets pretty small.

Doesn't the presence of a replacement starter, who may be less than the departed player, take into account the loss of an established player?

[3irty1]

If you exclude them, the results will reflect more on the current roster. If we choose to exclude young players, the list of players in this exercise gets pretty small.

Doesn't the presence of a replacement starter, who may be less than the departed player, take into account the loss of an established player?

My first, unpolished attempt was to nail down as many assumptions that wist was using as possible. One of those assumptions is that drafted players who aren't good enough to start ever or start yet are no more valuable than street free agents that would displace them had their pick been used to trade up.

[pbmax]

My first, unpolished attempt was to nail down as many assumptions that wist was using as possible. One of those assumptions is that drafted players who aren't good enough to start ever or start yet are no more valuable than street free agents that would displace them had their pick been used to trade up.

Yes, but perhaps predictably, those criteria place an emphasis on the roster for this year, kinda the Mike Sherman mathematical formula for draft pick value evaluation.

Is that the best use of the data?

[3irty1]

Its probably not ideal, no. But we're not serving a different purpose now than my original post which was to explore then show wist the value of picks after the 3rd round.

You're free to come up with any criteria you'd like and I'll post the results.