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[packer4life]

I like all those guys - and I like a lot of the other guys we have on defense; so begs the question why do we suck so bad when we play good competition??

Throwing spitballs at those who point out the failures isn't a rational defense of, or critique of, the defense. It isn't as if spitting in my eye b/c I call a spade a spade is suddenly going to erase our defenses problems, or erase our memories of getting bitch slapped.

For me it comes down to Capers. For the 2011 season, I put more of the blame on TT for doing nothing to address the defense in the offseason - but that doesn't mean Capers couldn't have done more with what he had.

On the coattails of that, we have one overriding philosophical flaw that is problematic - and that is a "as small as possible" mindset. If we should be in base, Capers wants to be in nickel; if we should be in nickel, Capers wants to be in dime... he always wants to be "one-up" in defending the pass - as a result we get run over a lot. Combine that with the fact that the Packers routinely try to get 1-gap penetrators (namely Raji) to play a 2-gap role, and you're well on your way to having a lot of problems.

Capers is the problem. I wish we had taken Brandon Williams when we had the shot at him in the 3rd round - we desperately need another 2-gap DL; but TT spit on the idea and drafted another soft OL (the persian guy). So we're stuck with what we have.

Still, if Capers would stop inhaling the paint fumes after he spray paints his hair every morning, maybe we could field a decent defense when we're matched against physical teams like the 49'ers.

Always cringe a bit when Wist is correct, but here is the link:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/matching-12

The average league defense plays base 78% of the time in base personnel against the offense's base personnel (2 WRs, 2 TEs, 1 RB). Capers counters with base package against offense's base only 38% of the time, lowest in the league. We even played over 20 snaps of dime against their base last year, that is crazy!

Anyway, this doesn't show us something we already didn't know, but it definitely is a good marker to compare our tendencies with the other defenses in the league. Capers clearly favors 5 DBs over stopping the run, and the last two years it has translated into getting ran over at the point of attack. This Neal at OLB experiment likely keeps his 5 DBs on the field but allows some bulk to stop the run as well.

Hope it is effective, we can't have AP running for 800 yards against us this year.

[Upnorth]

One other thought, in 2011 we gave up a record amount of passing yards and the sky was falling while we had a good run d. 2012 we have a much improved pass d while we can be gutted via the run. So is it scheme or personnel? Where 2011s injuries to pass d players and 2012s to run d players?

[packer4life]

One other thought, in 2011 we gave up a record amount of passing yards and the sky was falling while we had a good run d. 2012 we have a much improved pass d while we can be gutted via the run. So is it scheme or personnel? Where 2011s injuries to pass d players and 2012s to run d players?

It could also be a factor about how teams played us. In 2011 we got out to huge early leads with our aerial attack. Teams would pass, pass, pass to keep up and thus our pass D was a sieve. In 2012, the big leads went away. Teams made us dink and dunk down the field to score, and ball controlled us to keep ARod off the field. Running became much more effective.

Overall the depth did get better in 2012. Maybe our true counter this year is that we can ball control a bit more with Lacy pounding (to his left side of course), hit the action passes deep from time to time, and keep our defense more rested with a more balanced attack. We have a better secondary, and maybe even the second coming of Reggie White in Datone Jones (the way this forum likes him). Sky is the limit?

[Joemailman]

Always cringe a bit when Wist is correct, but here is the link:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/matching-12

The average league defense plays base 78% of the time in base personnel against the offense's base personnel (2 WRs, 2 TEs, 1 RB). Capers counters with base package against offense's base only 38% of the time, lowest in the league. We even played over 20 snaps of dime against their base last year, that is crazy!

Anyway, this doesn't show us something we already didn't know, but it definitely is a good marker to compare our tendencies with the other defenses in the league. Capers clearly favors 5 DBs over stopping the run, and the last two years it has translated into getting ran over at the point of attack. This Neal at OLB experiment likely keeps his 5 DBs on the field but allows some bulk to stop the run as well.

Hope it is effective, we can't have AP running for 800 yards against us this year.

I think this goes back to 2009. The Packers had the NFL's top run defense that year, but couldn't stop the top passing attacks. Favre (twice), Roethlisberger and Warner all ripped apart the Packers defense. I think that season convinced Capers that going with max coverage was the way to go. I too would like to see the Packers play more base. However, it is worth pointing out that the Packer team that won the Super Bowl also played nickel a lot more than teams like the Steelers. There is more than one way to achieve defensive success in the NFL.

[packer4life]

I think this goes back to 2009. The Packers had the NFL's top run defense that year, but couldn't stop the top passing attacks. Favre (twice), Roethlisberger and Warner all ripped apart the Packers defense. I think that season convinced Capers that going with max coverage was the way to go. I too would like to see the Packers play more base. However, it is worth pointing out that the Packer team that won the Super Bowl also played nickel a lot more than teams like the Steelers. There is more than one way to achieve defensive success in the NFL.

Our Nickel during the SB days was effective because we had a tackling machine Woodson at rover making things happen. Hayward is damn good but he is no rover. Next move, Capers.

[pbmax]

Always cringe a bit when Wist is correct, but here is the link:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/matching-12

The average league defense plays base 78% of the time in base personnel against the offense's base personnel (2 WRs, 2 TEs, 1 RB). Capers counters with base package against offense's base only 38% of the time, lowest in the league. We even played over 20 snaps of dime against their base last year, that is crazy!

Anyway, this doesn't show us something we already didn't know, but it definitely is a good marker to compare our tendencies with the other defenses in the league. Capers clearly favors 5 DBs over stopping the run, and the last two years it has translated into getting ran over at the point of attack. This Neal at OLB experiment likely keeps his 5 DBs on the field but allows some bulk to stop the run as well.

Hope it is effective, we can't have AP running for 800 yards against us this year.

One reason for that disparity is who your 12th best player on defense is. Against 2 TE personnel, you have to choose to be shorthanded versus something. Either you can't cover both TEs or you are smaller and more vulnerable to the run.

The next body you bring in depends on two things: what you think the opponent will do (or fear they will do) and what you can do best to disrupt them. You could stick Neal in for Wilson against 2 TE but you defense really has not upgraded except by a margin in pass rush while being a notch less effective versus the run.

Or you can throw Hayward out there and have the change to create a turnover in pass D. And all else being equal, the pass is more dangerous unless you are playing the 49ers in the playoffs. If you are the Texans and have trouble finding four decent DBs for base, you don't want DB5 in the game.

As for AP, Capers spend comparatively little time in nickel versus the Vikings because AP was the obvious focus. Wilson/Worthy/Neal/Daniels never played so much base than in the Vikings games. And I am not sure the Vikings used 2 TE a lot in any of the three games, so that may not be reflected in the numbers. That's the other missing piece here: snap counts. You have no idea how many snaps of this offense teams faced.

[pbmax]

Our Nickel during the SB days was effective because we had a tackling machine Woodson at rover making things happen. Hayward is damn good but he is no rover. Next move, Capers.

Collins.

[pbmax]

Packer run defense has been a problem since 2009. Even with hallowed Hall of Famer Culen Jenkins on the team in 2010, the run D suffered compared to 2009.

Year   Rush Rush Rush Rush
        Att  Yds   TD  Y/A
2012     13   17   16   26
2011      5   14    6   26
2010      6   18    3   28
2009      3    1    1    2

Conclusion? Johnny Jolly was pretty good And younger Pickett was a better NT than Raji.

But as Joe pointed out, it was clear the Packers chose to play nickel more often (probably changed their standard for how to respond to their opponents chances of pass vs. run) starting in 2010. What was different about 2010 was that when they needed to, the Packer could go jumbo out there (Raji-Pickett-Green) or 4-4 (Raji-Pickett-Green-Jenkins) and get stops.

The 49er problem (and the AP problem) is one of assignment and speed. Its a tough nut to crack. The Packers previous solutions to facing tough run attacks would be death versus Kaepernick or RG3.

In my mind, the players under the most pressure on D will be the ILBs. And maybe the 2nd safety.

[packer4life]

Collins.

I disagree.

Collins was more of a center-fielder that covered a ridiculous amount of space.

It was Woodson that allowed Capers the ability to go smaller, still play the run adequately (via Woodson's line presence), and cover the slot well on a pass-catching TE. In base, Woodson would've been pushed to an outside CB, taking away his stellar ability near the LOS.

Base or nickel, Collins was still a safety with safety responsibilities.

[pbmax]

I disagree.

Collins was more of a center-fielder that covered a ridiculous amount of space.

It was Woodson that allowed Capers the ability to go smaller, still play the run adequately (via Woodson's line presence), and cover the slot well on a pass-catching TE. In base, Woodson would've been pushed to an outside CB, taking away his stellar ability near the LOS.

Base or nickel, Collins was still a safety with safety responsibilities.

You could not pull Woodson shallow and allow him to roam unless you could cover the entire deep backfield with 3 guys only 1 of which, Collins, was deep at the snap. Peprah was no help back there a lot of the time.

[packer4life]

You could not pull Woodson shallow and allow him to roam unless you could cover the entire deep backfield with 3 guys only 1 of which, Collins, was deep at the snap. Peprah was no help back there a lot of the time.

If you played base, Woodson goes to the outside and you get Peprah that may sneak to the line and offer run support w/ Collins back deep. Peprah wasn't as good as Woodson on the line, was subpar on TE coverage as well compared to Woodson. It was no wonder why Capers preferred Woodson as rover in a smaller nickel package. I agree Collins also helped this defense run to perfection, but I think Woodson's style of play had a bigger role in swaying Capers to stay in that nickel front.

[Joemailman]

So are the Packers going to play more base this year? That question occurred to me when they decided to sign Brad Jones to starter money, and let Bishop go. My thinking there being that coverage ability by LB's is more important if you're not going to have as many DB's out there.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I like all those guys - and I like a lot of the other guys we have on defense; so begs the question why do we suck so bad when we play good competition??

Almost every team can say something went wrong with their last game of the year. 20 teams don't make the playoffs. 11 of the 12 playoff teams lose their last game, and they can point to a reason why. (San Fran's vaunted defense was carved up in their last game last year, for example.) This defense was good in 2010 (great when it counted), awful in 2011, and pretty good in 2012 (awful against a San Fran team that it frankly doesn't match up well with). I tend to look at the talent on this defense and think it can get back to the 2010 level (and when it counts too), but a lot of times it comes down to matchups. Who knows what happens if we could have avoided San Fran in the playoffs. I would have liked our chances against Atlanta.

I will throw you a bone though. If this defense stays healthy and isn't a top 10 defense and performs when it matters, I will be ready to throw Capers under the bus.

[pbmax]

So are the Packers going to play more base this year? That question occurred to me when they decided to sign Brad Jones to starter money, and let Bishop go. My thinking there being that coverage ability by LB's is more important if you're not going to have as many DB's out there.

I think both McCarthy and Capers have talked about the numbers in sub packages, but neither has committed to changing the approach. Its also possible they are simply not advertising it.

[Pugger]

Almost every team can say something went wrong with their last game of the year. 20 teams don't make the playoffs. 11 of the 12 playoff teams lose their last game, and they can point to a reason why. (San Fran's vaunted defense was carved up in their last game last year, for example.) This defense was good in 2010 (great when it counted), awful in 2011, and pretty good in 2012 (awful against a San Fran team that it frankly doesn't match up well with). I tend to look at the talent on this defense and think it can get back to the 2010 level (and when it counts too), but a lot of times it comes down to matchups. Who knows what happens if we could have avoided San Fran in the playoffs. I would have liked our chances against Atlanta.

I will throw you a bone though. If this defense stays healthy and isn't a top 10 defense and performs when it matters, I will be ready to throw Capers under the bus.

And the conclusion of the 2012 season we were ranked #11 injuries and all.