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Grantland article on Thompson

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  • #1

    Grantland article on Thompson

    In general I hate ESPN nowadays, but Grantland is decent and Barnwell normally makes some interesting points. Nothing too groundbreaking in this article although he does touch on TT's habit (especially early on) of trading down for additional picks and tries to assign value.

    This is about to get very nerdy, but the conclusion's worth it. The picks and players Thompson acquired would be expected to (or, in the players' case, actually did) produce about 56.9 more Approximate Value points over their first five years than the ones he let go. To put that into context, the expected return of a player taken with the first overall pick, according to Stuart's study, is 34.6 Approximate Value points. In other words — and this is crazy — what Thompson did for his team with trades involving draft picks over this four-year stretch was like generating a first-overall pick and a seventh-overall pick out of nothing. Imagine if the league just handed the Packers two top-seven picks in next year's draft for free. That's what Thompson pulled off. Magic. That's some One red paperclip shit right there.
    One thing I disagree with is that I think Barnwell gives TT way too much credit for signing Woodson. He acts like TT went all gung-ho after Woodson when we know that wasn't the case.

    Anyways, enjoy

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...-influence-nfl
    Go PACK
    Tags: None
  • #2
    That's all some weird numbers shit, right there.
    "The Devine era is actually worse than you remember if you go back and look at it."

    KYPack

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    • #3
      The trade chart is just crazy.

      He has traded the equivalent of 1 1st, 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 2 4ths, 1 5th, 1 6th, 2 7ths, Javon Walker, Corey Williams to acquire 6 2nds, 2 3rds, 4 4ths, 4 5ths, 6 6ths, 4 7ths, and Ryan Grant.
      "There's a lot of interest in the draft. It's great. But quite frankly, most of the people that are commenting on it don't know anything about what they are talking about."--Ted Thompson

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      • #4
        Originally posted by HarveyWallbangers View Post
        The trade chart is just crazy.

        He has traded the equivalent of 1 1st, 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 2 4ths, 1 5th, 1 6th, 2 7ths, Javon Walker, Corey Williams to acquire 6 2nds, 2 3rds, 4 4ths, 4 5ths, 6 6ths, 4 7ths, and Ryan Grant.
        Yup. Two players and 10 picks were traded for one player and 26 picks. In four years.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by HarveyWallbangers View Post
          The trade chart is just crazy.

          He has traded the equivalent of 1 1st, 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 2 4ths, 1 5th, 1 6th, 2 7ths, Javon Walker, Corey Williams to acquire 6 2nds, 2 3rds, 4 4ths, 4 5ths, 6 6ths, 4 7ths, and Ryan Grant.
          What happened to the 1 (#26) he traded up for in 2009?

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          • #6
            Originally posted by hoosier View Post
            What happened to the 1 (#26) he traded up for in 2009?
            The list of trades covered only the first four years under TT, his rebuilding years. After that he got into roster maintenance, and traded up a number of times.

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            • #7
              Good article -- thanks for sharing.

              TT likes to use a baseball analogy, and I think it's apt: The more swings you get at the plate, the better chance you'll get hits.

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