A little early but...

[Guiness]

It's a true story - I'm not trying to get your goat.

You'd have to be a sheep at the wheel to believe that!

[Upnorth]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Interestingly enough they have us as the favorite to win the 'Central' (head nod to Maxie) even though the bears have a two game lead on us.
As an aside for those of us who think they have played a hard schedual, FO has us with the 26th easiest schedual so far, with the 25th easiest going forward.

[pbmax]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Interestingly enough they have us as the favorite to win the 'Central' (head nod to Maxie) even though the bears have a two game lead on us.
As an aside for those of us who think they have played a hard schedual, FO has us with the 26th easiest schedual so far, with the 25th easiest going forward.

That will change as the 49ers will get back to being good. The Redskins might help later and the Bengals crashed their current rating by losing to the Browns.

[Upnorth]

So quick confession, I am a stats head and like numbers even though my posts don't really include many,

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/10/team-efficiency-rankings-week-4.html

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-4-dvoa-ratings

The reason why I post these links are not good. Advanced NFL stats break downs games on a play by play basis by both players and teams and gives each play a number as to how much it adds to a game in terms of wins or expected points. (there is much more to it but if you really want to find out more read teh site). Any way our D is rank 32nd on there site.
FO breaks down on a play per play basis and then compares the result to what the expected result for the average team or player is in that same situation (once again for more detail please see the site). They have us as 31st on D.
Both sites have our run d as average to a bit above average, but look out when it comes to pass d.
The last time we had numbers like this was 2011, but after 3 games our O was covering up for the horrible d.
Do I have my panties in a bunch or do we expect Wist to start saying 'I told you so"?

[pbmax]

So quick confession, I am a stats head and like numbers even though my posts don't really include many,

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/10/team-efficiency-rankings-week-4.html

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-4-dvoa-ratings

The reason why I post these links are not good. Advanced NFL stats break downs games on a play by play basis by both players and teams and gives each play a number as to how much it adds to a game in terms of wins or expected points. (there is much more to it but if you really want to find out more read teh site). Any way our D is rank 32nd on there site.
FO breaks down on a play per play basis and then compares the result to what the expected result for the average team or player is in that same situation (once again for more detail please see the site). They have us as 31st on D.
Both sites have our run d as average to a bit above average, but look out when it comes to pass d.
The last time we had numbers like this was 2011, but after 3 games our O was covering up for the horrible d.
Do I have my panties in a bunch or do we expect Wist to start saying 'I told you so"?

No, I don't think they are the 30th worst defense in the League. But they have not been better than average for more than a couple of drives per game. Maybe a quarter and a half.

Like San Fran (run) or Cincy (TEs), if they concentrate on one factor of an opponent, they can shut it down. So they are not ineffective. But the are then vulnerable to the rest of the playbook. Not having Hayward and Burnett made this worse versus the 49ers; not having Matthews made it worse against the Bengals.

The turnovers and 3 and outs on offense aren't helping the D either.

[Upnorth]

IN the second and third quarters of the Cincy game we had a complete (and unbelievable) defense. Out side of that 30 minutes of brilliance, we can only shut down any one factor of the opponents game plan, but at the cost of giving up big plays in other areas. I don't think our D is as bad as the numbers show, however I do not think we are much better, and with our olines pass blocking struggles that is not good enough. Having a better run game should help sustain drives taking some pressure away from the d, but that did not show up in the last quarter of any games (including to washington)

[mraynrand]

That will change as the 49ers will get back to being good. The Redskins might help later and the Bengals crashed their current rating by losing to the Browns.

Well, the Browns are 2-2, same as Cincy. When the Packers play the Browns, they might be a formidable team!

[denverYooper]

SInce this has turned out to be the unofficial stats thread, I"ll stick this here:

Pro Football Focus @PFF 39s

From Sig Stats: top MLB/ILB Run Stop Pct.
20.9% J.Brinkley,ARZ
19.6% B.Cushing,HOU
18.2% B.Spikes,NE
17.4% L.Kuechly,CAR
14.9% B.Jones,GB

[Pugger]

I guess you could safely say then that if we lose to the Lions we definitely have an uphill struggle.

This Sunday is a MUST WIN. IMO if we lose to Detroit we won't be in the playoffs this season. You don't want to be 3 games back in addition to losing to your division's leader at home.

[denverYooper]

Some things make me think the Packers offense might be better than we think. Small sample disclaimers apply.

Packers are 2nd in the league in PPG, with 32, 12.8 behind Denver. In 2011, they scored 35 ppg. They're 3rd in yards per play. After playing 2 of the better defenses on the road, those numbers are pretty good.

They are 2nd in rushing ypc, 9th in ypg.

They have fumbled 4 times and lost all 4, with the most freaky being the Franklin fumble returned for the game winning TD in the Bengals game. They are tied for 8th when it comes to number of fumbles. They are tied for 8th worst when it comes to fumbles lost. And they've got to be dead last in the location and result of the lost fumbles -- those have resulted in 2 short TDs for the opposition's offense and a return TD. So they're not fumbling a lot but their fumbles have cost them dearly Fumble luck has been a real bitch.

It's early yet, but this offense could very well be better than their 2011 offense by the end of the year if they can stay healthy.

[Pugger]

I'll bet you it's not true. Double or mutton.

Baaa!

[Pugger]

Some things make me think the Packers offense might be better than we think. Small sample disclaimers apply.

Packers are 2nd in the league in PPG, with 32, 12.8 behind Denver. In 2011, they scored 35 ppg. They're 3rd in yards per play. After playing 2 of the better defenses on the road, those numbers are pretty good.

They are 2nd in rushing ypc, 9th in ypg.

They have fumbled 4 times and lost all 4, with the most freaky being the Franklin fumble returned for the game winning TD in the Bengals game. They are tied for 8th when it comes to number of fumbles. They are tied for 8th worst when it comes to fumbles lost. And they've got to be dead last in the location and result of the lost fumbles -- those have resulted in 2 short TDs for the opposition's offense and a return TD. So they're not fumbling a lot but their fumbles have cost them dearly Fumble luck has been a real bitch.

It's early yet, but this offense could very well be better than their 2011 offense by the end of the year if they can stay healthy.

And not turn the ball over. TOs have literally killed us in our 2 loses this season.

[denverYooper]

And not turn the ball over. TOs have literally killed us in our 2 loses this season.

Yeah Pug.Every fumble has resulted in points for the opposition or lost points for GB.

Lacy fumbled at the GB 10 in the 1st game, setting SF up for an easy score.
Jones fumbled out of the endzone for a touchback in the WAS game, costing the Packers 7 points.
Ross muffed at the GB 2 in the Cincy game. Easy TD for Cincy.
Franklin fumbled in Cincy territory, Nelson got tackled and fumbled to his own teammate who returned it for a TD.

[denverYooper]

Ints have been a slightly different story...

On Finley's int vs 49ers, the defense held and Dawson missed a 49 yard FG
On Jones's int vs the Bengals, the defense held and Nugent missed a 52 yarder
On Rodgers 2nd int at the Cincy 9, the Bengals rode down the field for a TD. At least a 10 point swing, because the Packers were in FG range.

[sharpe1027]

It will always be the NFC Central to me.

A division name that made perfect sense given Tampa bay's location near the center of something to other.