More Banjo: Week 3 Aftermath (Pack v Bengals)

[pbmax]

Old Bob back at it. he presents the "Packers can't win close games angle" with NO context except to mention in passing they rarely get blown out and then delivers himself this conclusion:

But the Packers can only dream of a third straight division championship and the Super Bowl unless they start winning tight games.

All evidence of 2010 Super Bowl winners to the contrary, Bob knows what the real problem is. Play more close games and stop blowing people out.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/224772392.html

Best part is Raji delivering this quote:

““Particularly on the road you have to make the plays when you have to have them,” defensive end B.J. Raji said. “We didn’t play well enough to win.

I believe Winston Churchill said, ‘Sometimes the best isn’t good enough.’ You have to do what’s required.”

[pbmax]

Here we go: and its from one of my favorite sites (the guy writes for Football Outsiders and they provide ESPN with content that is not former players saying "In the National Football League you must pay attention to detail ...."

Why Aaron Rodgers Is Not Truly Great by Scott Kacsmar

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9711636/nfl-why-aaron-rodgers-not-truly-great

Its an insider piece so you have to pay to read it. I hope someone can put this in the garbage where it belongs.

[denverYooper]

Here we go: and its from one of my favorite sites (the guy writes for Football Outsiders and they provide ESPN with content that is not former players saying "In the National Football League you must pay attention to detail ...."

Why Aaron Rodgers Is Not Truly Great by Scott Kacsmar

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9711636/nfl-why-aaron-rodgers-not-truly-great

Its an insider piece so you have to pay to read it. I hope someone can put this in the garbage where it belongs.

Captain Comeback used to write for CHFF. IIRC, he was a poster on some football stat site who developed his 4th Quarter Comeback statistics in order to "prove" that Big Ben was better than Tom Brady and it has blossomed from there. I'm willing to bet that the thrust of the argument is Rodgers 4th quarter comeback/game winning drive record. His dataset is integrated in PFR (under the "QB credited with" criteria).

[denverYooper]

Definition of the 4th quarter comeback stat:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=3392

For it to be a 4th quarter comeback win, you must:

Win the game (no ties or losses)
Take the field with a 1--8 pt deficit (1--7 prior to 1994) and score as an offense (no fumble return TD to win the game)
It does not have to be the final winning score (hence, that applies to the number of game-winning drives)

So I'll be surprised if the article provides the kind of context you might be hoping for. I'd be more interested if they showed some other (QBR, rating, etc) data in those situations to back it up. I felt like Rodgers played a bit better on the last couple of drives than earlier in the game.

[Fritz]

Here we go: and its from one of my favorite sites (the guy writes for Football Outsiders and they provide ESPN with content that is not former players saying "In the National Football League you must pay attention to detail ...."

Why Aaron Rodgers Is Not Truly Great by Scott Kacsmar

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9711636/nfl-why-aaron-rodgers-not-truly-great

Its an insider piece so you have to pay to read it. I hope someone can put this in the garbage where it belongs.

I have a friend who is a contrarian for the sake of being contrary, and he took this position a week or two ago. So I knew what was coming when I saw him this morning. I tried to wave him off, but he wanted to explain why Rodgers is not good in fourth quarter comebacks. Sigh.

I just think it's too difficult to pin down. As somebody posted above, Dalton apparently gets credit for leading his team to a comeback win, even though he had nothing to do with the winning score.

And what's a "comeback"? If your team is down seven in the third quarter, but your team wins, does that count? Or is it with six minutes left, or three? How many points? In McGinn's piece, IIRC, he used eight points down in one part, and six in another.

And what if Barclay had blocked his man all the way down? So Rodgers gets the blame for both batted balls? Does he get any credit if he or any QB throws a perfect pass for a winning TD but the receiver drops it?

It's ridiculous. Bottom line, Rodgers cannot complete a comeback, if you don't count the times he did.

[pbmax]

Yeah, that's the guy.

It's clear the Packer's are underperforming in close games, though the pick of 1-8 points is again suggestive of choosing the data that best fits your hypothesis (see previous and current claims about Rodgers in game 4 points or closer). So separating Rodgers from these results is as problematic as trying to determine how much credit should go to receivers versus the QB. And the defense factors in here.

Without diving deep there are a few mitigating factors:

1. 2008 season, his first starting season. He was 0-8 or something similar that year.
2. Passing game is maxed out. Elway used to make 4th Qtr comebacks routine because Reeves had to unshackle him from a mediocre running game and the scripted offense and let him throw and scramble most downs late. But it was nearly a different offense in the 4th quarter. Rodgers is running the 4th Qtr offense every quarter. If teams have figured them out, there is not a better backup offense.
3. Running game. Franklin's success was in part a testament to the respect the Bengals had for the Packer passing game. But that running game disappears in a lot of games under Rodgers. Sometimes its the production, sometimes its the playcaller.
4. Risk taking. The same thing that might get you a 20 point lead is not going to happen when you face a defense poised to stop the pass and ignore the run. This made no difference to Favre or Marino as they would still take a shot. Rodgers instead takes sacks. Those sacks avoid INTs but they also cost time. An incomplete, which most risky throws would produce, would stop the clock at no more cost of a down.
5. Mediocre teams, or teams with no defense tend to have the most comeback opportunities because the game is always close if the offense is at all functional. Packers have a high number of wins during his era, so those close losses are simply the natural result of a good team losing occasionally.
6. Pass Protection. Has been at its weakest as Rodgers has entered his prime. With marginal run game, he is more of a target late in games when behind.
7. McCarthy doesn't have a handle on closing a game out. he takes his foot off the brake. Phone booth offense is no way to run a game with 11:00 left. You saw both sides of this in the Redskins game.

[mraynrand]

I believe Winston Churchill said, ‘Sometimes the best isn’t good enough.’ You have to do what’s required.

deep. Still, I am reminded of LeRoy Butler filling his gas tank the week before a Bears game telling a fan at the station "We'll do our best to beat them" The fan: "I don't want you to do your best. I want you to win."

[mraynrand]

7. McCarthy doesn't have a handle on closing a game out. he takes his foot off the brake. Phone booth offense is no way to run a game with 11:00 left. You saw both sides of this in the Redskins game.

can I have a translation on this one

[pbmax]

deep. Still, I am reminded of LeRoy Butler filling his gas tank the week before a Bears game telling a fan at the station "We'll do our best to beat them" The fan: "I don't want you to do your best. I want you to win."

Its that kind of can do attitude that keeps the PED business moving right along. NASCAR as well.

[pbmax]

can I have a translation on this one

McCarthy has an offensive plan for what he calls "phone booth football" meaning everyone is in tight. A literal attempt to run out the clock (and stop said attempt). Its official practice terminology is the 4 minute offense, when you want first downs but need the clock to move or force the opponent to call TOs.

McCarthy has a tendency to get into his 4 minute offense around the 10 to 11 minute mark.

[pbmax]

McCarthy Monday Presser

- Players off for whole week

- Packer Report @PackerReport 14m
McCarthy will be here in a second. Finley (concussion), Starks (knee), Matthews (hammy), Franklin (foot) from Sunday.

- Ross not released to send message, was about making change to roster composition

- M3 would work with him again

- Jason Wilde @jasonjwilde 15m
McCarthy jokes about the Wisconsin diet being an issue on hamstring injuries. Then, more seriously: "Do I have an answer for you? No."

I trust Wilde on this but I was listening and I didn't think he reported the suggestion that diet was an issue was a joke. Great deadpan if it was.

- M3 has seen work that Packer stink in close games. Says they have done their own studies on it and answers are evident in 2010 team. Thinks its easy to draw wrong conclusions based on other team's experiences

- M3 always second guesses, Schottenheimer told him play callers come in two flavors, those who second guess and those that lie about second guessing. He puts the issue to rest by re-examining process that lead to the decision

- Like Backups effort, esp. Special Teams who had a lot of normal front liners starting but overall grades for team not as good as goal

[pbmax]

McGinn on Offensive Line (3 1/2 footballs) http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packe...medium=twitter

- Lang with best performance of season against Atkins. 35 snaps and McGinn calls Atkins invisible

- Sitton had Atkins on 29 snaps and was also successful

- EDS far more effective in run game versus Peko, but did yield a sack

- Barclay had one bad run and pass pro versus Dunlap for a passable performance

- Bach had his worst day with several bad pass pros and a bad run (the Frankline fumble)

McGinn considers Bach's speed as one key reason the Packers are running zone better this year.

[Bossman641]

PB, that Rodgers article is garbage. One thing of note I took from it though..

Green Bay has allowed 20 game-winning drives since 2008, which is third-most in the league over that span.

[Patler]

Bach still needs to make that block. Sherman's offenses screened ALL the time and still got that guy's hands down.

Sherman had two advantages that McCarthy does not - 1. Chad Clifton. 2. Mark Tauscher.

[Patler]

There was a lot of talk about Rodgers failures to lead comebacks after the 2008 season. I wrote a summary about them once, and while I no longer have the details, and don't feel like redoing it all, suffice it to say that he actually lead quite a few that should have won the game that year, but for one reason or another, did not. As I recall, in one game he did it twice, but the defense gave it back each time. That happened in other games, too, often in very short order after the Packers scored. One I think was a special teams blunder that gave it away on the following kick off, and at least one winning kick were missed as time expired.

Even when he did lead winning drives, he didn't win. It happens.