Pink Elephant in the room

[denverYooper]

I don't think either play can be characterized as "diving into the pile" but maybe that's just semantics.

As to Lacy's fumble, there's no way to tell if he would have made the 1st because the ball comes out so early. I think we have a keeper in Bahk, but his wiff allowing the inside to the DE caused Franklin to get hit just as he was beginning his leap over the pile. I suspect that it is a play that they have run well in practice with Franklin as the ball carrier-possibly one of the plays that McCarthy had said he'd drawn up for Harris. The element of surprise comes not from the run call, but from the leap over, which is not something the Packers have shown in recent years.

If Bahk makes the block we might be having a very different conversation.

That said, I'm not a fan of the "leap over" for short yardage--if it's close you end up relying too much on the ref's judgement as to where to spot the ball, and anywhere other than the goal line there is no way that you get a decent, line-of-scrimmage camera angle for a replay challenge. Worse, it plays to the back's instinct to extend the ball out for every inch, and again, away from the goal line, it ends up completely in the ref's judgement as to when the play is dead, and seems like high fumble risk to me.

Good post.

I mostly agree on Bahk. I think he got schooled by a DE that could very well be a DPOY candidate and had a rough game, but he didn't go in the tank and kept fighting for it out there.

[denverYooper]

Schatz is a stat guy. All stat guys will think it was a good call. Stubby is a stat guy (except when it comes to the bathroom scale).

Schatz also works for Football Outsiders, the site to which PB linked.

Stubby is a stat guy to an extent, in that he uses it as a tool to analyze his (and the staff's) decision making process. But he doesn't just live and die on the football field by what the stats say.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Schatz also works for Football Outsiders, the site to which PB linked.

Stubby is a stat guy to an extent, in that he uses it as a tool to analyze his (and the staff's) decision making process. But he doesn't just live and die on the football field by what the stats say.

Agreed. I was exaggerating. Seriously, I wish the stat Stubby would become obsessive about is field position. He talks about it alot, but his actions don't seem to back up the talk.

[Upnorth]

I believe FO wrote an article about leaping over the pile leading to more strip fumbles, I hate that play. Arod on short yard situation is like 86% or something. That is the money play imo.

[mraynrand]

That's the trouble with statistics, pb. Statistics treat every player and team exactly as equals. In fact, "running is successful 40% more often" for the teams with good lines and strong runners. The downside of that statistic (the percentage when running is not successful) is provided by teams like the Packers who have weaker OL's and smaller, inexperienced RB's.

statistics are meaningless without context. I'm growing tired of this particular one.

[Maxie the Taxi]

statistics are meaningless without context. I'm growing tired of this particular one.

The odds are 40 to 1 that posters who post the same comment on two different threads are likely to do it a third time.

[mraynrand]

The odds are 40 to 1 that posters who post the same comment on two different threads are likely to do it a third time.

context, Maxi. Bring up another context-free stat in another thread, and i will be compelled to act.

[Upnorth]

The odds are 40 to 1 that posters who post the same comment on two different threads are likely to do it a third time.

Doing the same thing and expecting different results...

[mraynrand]

Doing the same thing and expecting different results...

no no, expecting the same result! Based on previous results - otherwise known as... stats...

[pbmax]

That's the trouble with statistics, pb. Statistics treat every player and team exactly as equals. In fact, "running is successful 40% more often" for the teams with good lines and strong runners. The downside of that statistic (the percentage when running is not successful) is provided by teams like the Packers who have weaker OL's and smaller, inexperienced RB's.

In experienced RB sure. But this line run blocks better than any line in GB since 2007, and it might be better than that one.

[pbmax]

context, Maxi. Bring up another context-free stat in another thread, and i will be compelled to act.

I do wonder why passing suffers in short yardage, I will have to go back and look for the details. Is it because a sig number of passes are panic throws after a blown play? Throwing deep? Do run blocking lineman make the pass rush easier?

[Maxie the Taxi]

Interesting article on the 4th and half yard call when Franklin fumbled:

http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/common/more.php?m=49&post_id=30121

Speaking of the call specifically, McCarthy said he didn’t regret not kicking the field goal or trying a different short-yardage play, such as a quarterback sneak.

“No, it was a solid call,” McCarthy said.

And...

Offensive coordinator Tom Clements said the play does not call for Franklin to try to leap over the pile, which was what the rookie running back was attempting to do when the ball came loose before he got off the ground.

“It’s not a called leap, it just depends how the front plays it,” Clements said. “Usually they try to stay low, (so) that’s usually a good option.”

Asked if he considered having quarterback Aaron Rodgers sneak it, Clements said, “We’ve used them in the past. What we’ve tried to develop are some runs that give you the same benefit as a quarterback sneak with a guy who’s used to running the ball. (Rodgers) is not adverse to QB sneaks.”

I get the feeling if Clements were calling the plays, Rodgers might have sneaked it. It sounds to me like Clements feels Franklin should have gone in low instead of leaping.

Maybe Clements should take the play-calling duties away from Stubby. Apparently, Arod gets along with Clements real well.

[Bossman641]

Interesting article on the 4th and half yard call when Franklin fumbled:

http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/common/more.php?m=49&post_id=30121

And...



I get the feeling if Clements were calling the plays, Rodgers might have sneaked it. It sounds to me like Clements feels Franklin should have gone in low instead of leaping.

Maybe Clements should take the play-calling duties away from Stubby. Apparently, Arod gets along with Clements real well.

I read this a little different. I read it as Clements saying usually they (the DL) try to stay low so Franklin going over the top is a good option. I haven't read the article though.

[pbmax]

Why run it? Because they have been very good at running both normally and short yardage this year. This data includes the Cincy game.

Green Bay short yardage running 2013: 3rd or 4th down runs with first down or TD within two yards of LOS.

Success 80%

Run plays tackled for loss or at LOS 2013:

14%

Overall 2013:

Rank Team	Adj.  	RB	Power 	Power 	Stuffed	Stuffed	2nd	2nd  	Open	Open
		Line	Yards	Success	Rank		Rank	Level	Level	Field	Field
		Yards						Yards	Rank	Yards	Rank
1	IND	4.69	4.40	56%	19	13%	4	1.36	5	0.42	22

2	HOU	4.58	4.89	33%	27	15%	9	1.56	3	0.89	10

3	GB	4.56	5.46	80%	10	14%	6	1.62	1	1.38	3

[mraynrand]

Look, they cocked it up. Time to move on.