McCarthy Declines Balt 3rd Down Penalty, Right Decision?

[pbmax]

Playing with this: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php

reveals that the biggest factor that close to the endzone is downs*. Two downs gives you a chance to get a TD AND then a shot for a FG if you want. The FG is not sufficiently farther back to affect the percentages enough to mitigate the chance to take a shot at a TD.

Having one down on the 1 yard line is clearly, from an expected points calculation, the way to go if you are the defense.

* Should note that not all parts of that calculator work in goal to go situations. It gives you better odds of a TD than first down, which should be the same thing.

[hoosier]

Didn't Masthay hit a 52 yarder with no return?

Was it that long? I thought I remembered Balt getting the ball back right at midfield so was assuming a punt closer to 40 yards. But I could certainly be wrong on that.

[MJZiggy]

I guess it did make sense to decline the penalty. But those are fishy numbers. How could the average points scored from the 4th-1 ever climb above 3? They mostly kick field goals, and miss every once in a while.

In the last 4 years, 4th-1 attempts at scoring touchdowns have succeeded 41% of the time.
article on the odds for Harbaugh's decision

Well, that means you get 2.87 points on average by going for touchdown. (If it were greater than 3, you would see few field goal attempts)

The Ravens fan a few rows behind me thought going for it on 4th down was an idiotic decision. He voiced this opinion over the next two series and then brought it up again (loudly) sometime in the second half. He was entertaining...

[King Friday]

I liked the decision. Giving other teams more downs in today's offensively-favored rule system usually is not the better option.

Plus, our defense had just finished 3 successful short yardage denials. The defense had been winning on the LOS the entire game up to that point. I'm guessing McCarthy assumed there was little chance Harbaugh would not take the 3 points in that situation. IMO, the decision made to go for the TD on 4th and 1 was far more questionable than the decision to decline the penalty given the ebb and flow of the game to that point.

[cheesner]

I liked the call at the time. If we backed them up, they were more likely to throw, and I was trusting our run D more than our pass D at the time.
I still expected BAL to kick - when they didn't, I was regretting the decision. It was a bad call on Baltimore - they needed points and something to show for their work.

[mraynrand]

I liked the decision based on how the defense was playing. Sometimes, a coach has to make calls based on feel more on that than raw numbers.

[channtheman]

I liked the decision. Giving other teams more downs in today's offensively-favored rule system usually is not the better option.

Plus, our defense had just finished 3 successful short yardage denials. The defense had been winning on the LOS the entire game up to that point. I'm guessing McCarthy assumed there was little chance Harbaugh would not take the 3 points in that situation. IMO, the decision made to go for the TD on 4th and 1 was far more questionable than the decision to decline the penalty given the ebb and flow of the game to that point.

I agree completely with this. Unless we want to talk about how perhaps MM baited Harbaugh into going for it by declining the penalty, we should all be questioning Harbaugh deciding to take no points.