official 2014 nfl draft thread

[mraynrand]

Does the 40 matter that much to a safety?

Brian Dawkins ran a 4.59 and was The Byron "Whizzer" White NFL Man of the Year Award in 2008. Football speed and instincts matter more than pure speed at safety. I was at Philly in 2004 and just watched Dawkins in the secondary. If I didn't know better, I would have thought he was in the Packer huddle. Guy knew the plays, knew his keys and broke on passes with no wasted steps. Drafted #61, probably because of speed issues. Ted Thompson: "I have people around me to remind me to draft players who can play football, so I don't get distracted by measureables" (that's a paraphrase)

[RashanGary]

More than any other position, I do think 40 time matters for free safety. It's the one position that really covers long ground and I notice most top tier FS are fast in the nfl. It's more than just speed, but I wouldn't take a slow safety with a first round pick in this draft.

[Brandon494]

A few free safeties off the top of my head that had similar 40 times.

Ed Reed 4.57 40
Jairus Byrd 4.68 40
Dashon Goldson 4.65 40
Antrel Rolle 4.5 50
Malcom Jenkins 4.53 40

If 40 times matter more for FS then why would teams move slower CBs to FS? Its about instincts, taking the right angles, and tackling since they are the last line of defense.

[HarveyWallbangers]

More than any other position, I do think 40 time matters for free safety. It's the one position that really covers long ground and I notice most top tier FS are fast in the nfl. It's more than just speed, but I wouldn't take a slow safety with a first round pick in this draft.

You would be correct--according to a multiplier done by DRAFTMETRICS. They correlated testing in the combine drills to success in the NFL (measured by 3+ years of starting in the NFL). Here is what the found on the importance of each drill per position. We'll just evaluate the 6 common drills--40 time, short shuttle, 3 cone, vertical, broad jump, and bench press. The vertical and broad jumps end up mattering more than people think--because it measures the player's explosiveness. They didn't show the results of QBs because measurables didn't have a big correlation to success in the NFL. The results are intersting at some positions, the drills have less importance (QB, OT, 3-4 DE, LB)--while the drills matter a lot more at other positions (TE, OG, 4-3 DE, CB). Some drills are very important at a position while others matter very little. Here were the results:

RB
Important: 40 time++, vertical, broad jump
Moderately important: none
Not very important: bench, shuttle, 3 cone--

WR
Important: shuttle, 40 time
Moderately important: vertical, broad jump
Not very important: 3 cone, bench--

TE
Important: bench++, broad jump++, shuttle
Moderately important: vertical
Not very important: 3 cone, 40 time

OC
Important: shuttle++, vertical
Moderately important: broad jump, 3 cone
Not very important: bench, 40 time

OG
Important: vertical++, 40 time, shuttle, broad jump, 3 cone
Moderately important: bench
Not very important: none

OT
Important: 40 time
Moderately important: vertical, shuttle, broad jump
Not very important: bench, 3 cone

4-3 DE
Important: shuttle++, broad jump++, vertical++
Moderately important: 3 cone, 40 time
Not very important: bench

3-4 DE
Important: none
Moderately important: bench, 40 time
Not very important: broad jump, vertical, shuttle, 3 cone

DT
Important: none
Moderately important: vertical, 40 time
Not very important: bench, shuttle, broad jump, 3 cone--

LB
Important: shuttle
Moderately important: 40 time
Not very important: 3 cone, broad jump, vertical, bench--

CB
Important: 40 time, bench, shuttle
Moderately important: vertical, 3 cone, broad jump
Not very important: none

S
Important: 40 time, 3 cone
Moderately important: shuttle
Not very important: broad jump, vertical, bench--

++ means the drill is very important at that position.
-- means the drill is not important at that position.

Overall, across all positions, the drills correlated to NFL success in this order: shuttle, 40 time, vertical, broad jump, bench, 3 cone

[Brandon494]

And since when was Bob McGinn an expert on anything?

[HarveyWallbangers]

More than any other position, I do think 40 time matters for free safety. It's the one position that really covers long ground and I notice most top tier FS are fast in the nfl. It's more than just speed, but I wouldn't take a slow safety with a first round pick in this draft.

You would be correct--according to a multiplier done by DRAFTMETRICS. They correlated testing in the combine drills to success in the NFL (measured by 3+ years of starting in the NFL). Here is what the found on the importance of each drill per position. We'll just evaluate the 6 common drills--40 time, short shuttle, 3 cone, vertical, broad jump, and bench press. The vertical and broad jumps end up mattering more than people think--because it measures the player's explosiveness. They didn't show the results of QBs because measurables didn't have a big correlation to success in the NFL. The results are intersting at some positions, the drills have less importance (QB, OT, 3-4 DE, LB)--while the drills matter a lot more at other positions (TE, OG, 4-3 DE, CB). Some drills are very important at a position while others matter very little. Here were the results:

RB
Important: 40 time++, vertical, broad jump
Moderately important: none
Not very important: bench, shuttle, 3 cone--

WR
Important: shuttle, 40 time
Moderately important: vertical, broad jump
Not very important: 3 cone, bench--

TE
Important: bench++, broad jump++, shuttle
Moderately important: vertical
Not very important: 3 cone, 40 time

OC
Important: shuttle++, vertical
Moderately important: broad jump, 3 cone
Not very important: bench, 40 time

OG
Important: vertical++, 40 time, shuttle, broad jump, 3 cone
Moderately important: bench
Not very important: none

OT
Important: 40 time
Moderately important: vertical, shuttle, broad jump
Not very important: bench, 3 cone

4-3 DE
Important: shuttle++, broad jump++, vertical++
Moderately important: 3 cone, 40 time
Not very important: bench

3-4 DE
Important: none
Moderately important: bench, 40 time
Not very important: broad jump, vertical, shuttle, 3 cone

DT
Important: none
Moderately important: vertical, 40 time
Not very important: bench, shuttle, broad jump, 3 cone--

LB
Important: shuttle
Moderately important: 40 time
Not very important: 3 cone, broad jump, vertical, bench--

CB
Important: 40 time, bench, shuttle
Moderately important: vertical, 3 cone, broad jump
Not very important: none

S
Important: 40 time, 3 cone
Moderately important: shuttle
Not very important: broad jump, vertical, bench--

++ means the drill is very important at that position.
-- means the drill is not important at that position.

Overall, across all positions, the drills correlated to NFL success in this order: shuttle, 40 time, vertical, broad jump, bench, 3 cone

[pbmax]

And since when was Bob McGinn an expert on anything?

He's not an expert, but he usually does good digging and has records on a lot of drafts going back quite a way.

So when he writes that those 40 times are kinda pedestrian for the safety position in the first round, I take it seriously. However, as I think someone posted before, Ed Reed's 40 time wasn't fabulous either. So I am open to other opinions.

Bob doesn't report out all his data (see Bigger/Stronger/Tougher) so its not a lock by any means.

[Brandon494]

I can't take him seriously ever since he wrote that article about Seneca Wallace.

[mraynrand]

I can't take him seriously ever since he wrote that article about Seneca Wallace.

You know Seneca wasn't up to snuff, as he was never named the Byron "Whizzer" White NFL Man of the Year. I bet Bob didn't even know that.

[mraynrand]

dp

[Cheesehead Craig]

A few free safeties off the top of my head that had similar 40 times.

Ed Reed 4.57 40
Jairus Byrd 4.68 40
Dashon Goldson 4.65 40
Antrel Rolle 4.5 50
Malcom Jenkins 4.53 40

If 40 times matter more for FS then why would teams move slower CBs to FS? Its about instincts, taking the right angles, and tackling since they are the last line of defense.

You had those guys' 40 times off the top of your head? Impressive.

[Brandon494]

You had those guys' 40 times off the top of your head? Impressive.

Haha not at all, I had to look up their 40 times. Just by watching them over the years I knew they didn't have Nick Collins type speed.

[pbmax]

That raises a good point. How far along is the Nick Collins cloning project coming along?

Any progress on accelerated aging of the clone?

[pbmax]

Packer Report @PackerReport 38m
More I've heard, the less likely I believe Shazier makes it to 21. And my gut says they don't take a safety, either.

[Brandon494]

Packer Report @PackerReport 38m
More I've heard, the less likely I believe Shazier makes it to 21. And my gut says they don't take a safety, either.

I was starting to feel Shazier would be gone by the time we picked which is why I found it funny some were talking about trading down then drafting him. I hope we trade down instead of reaching to filll a need but I'm really starting to think Stephon Tuitt will be our 1st round pick. TT always seems to pick someone that no one predicts.