Based on Toxix Differential - Why havn't the Packers won in the last two weeks?

[woodbuck27]

Toxic Differential Ranking in the NFL through Week 10:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000281155/article/toxic-differential-favors-seattle-seahawks-philadelphia-eagles

Here the Packers Toxic Diff. Ranking in the NFL is at #13 and number at zero.

T.O. Diff. = - 4 and Explosive Play Diff. = + 4 ... For a Net = 0.

Toxic Differential Ranking in the NFL through Week 12.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/toxic-differential/2013/

Looking at the Packers Toxic Differential Ranking after week 12. It can be seen that the team has risen in the ranking to position # 10 with a number of +6.

The T.O. Diff. slipped a bit to - 5. Yet the BIG PLAY or Explosive Differential Leaped to + 11.

For an overall LEAP of + 6 and three positions higher in the NFL overall.

So seeing this I asked myself these questions in terms of the head - head contests over these past two weeks. :

A) Has our 'D' shown up as performing much worse in the past two games?

Can you say yes when the stat here in terms of T.O. Diff. doesn't support that's the case in any dramatic sense?

B) Has the Packer offense looked much worse in Aaron Rodgers absence?

We lament the loss of Aaron Rodgers and the need for backup QB's. Yet examining the Explosive Play Differential over these past two weeks (or Weeks 11-12). We see a remarkable Net leap positive in that statistic ... from +4 ... to +11.

I'll then ask you this question:

The Packer games in week 11 (Giants) and week 12 (Vikings) we're with opponents ranked far below the Green Bay Packers in the NFL Power Ranking.

With all of the above why didn't the Green Bay Packers win at least one of these two games?

PACKERS !

[bobblehead]

The answer is that turnovers kill. You can have a couple explosive plays followed by a turnover and what do you get. NOTHING!

[woodbuck27]

The answer is that turnovers kill. You can have a couple explosive plays followed by a turnover and what do you get. NOTHING!

Yes I agree with you.

Yet when you examine our last two weeks and the increase in explosive plays by +7 Vs the slight increase in net turn overs (-1) or a net rise of +6 in Toxic Differential.

I go back to my original question. I see a contradiction in terms related to a +6 increase in Toxic Diff. (which is significant in terms of that rise coming in 2 weeks) and no win in either game.

Is it because in terms of any similar analysis the GIANTS and Vikings performed somewhat better or about the same. I havn't checked this out as yet. I'm trying to work out my Pro Pickem analysis and strategy for this week. Trying to adjust from the cluster 'mess' that was last week.


PACKERS !

[denverYooper]

The answer is that turnovers kill. You can have a couple explosive plays followed by a turnover and what do you get. NOTHING!

That pretty much describes the Giants game. BOOM! BOOM! D'OH!

[denverYooper]

Also, they've struggled mightily in the red zone without Rodgers. They were already underperforming with 12 in, relative to what we typically see. Without him, they really fell off there until the Vikings game. I haven't checked, but I'd bet their yards/point ratio went up significantly.

[woodbuck27]

Also, they've struggled mightily in the red zone without Rodgers. They were already underperforming with 12 in, relative to what we typically see. Without him, they really fell off there until the Vikings game. I haven't checked, but I'd bet their yards/point ratio went up significantly.

You might be able to find per game analysis plus grading on Pro Football Focus (PFF).

I'm not sure but the past game stuff might be $No charge$.

PACKERS !

[bobblehead]

I would also point to 3 and outs which are a killer for the defense, team morale, and obviously the offense.

[woodbuck27]

I would also point to 3 and outs which are a killer for the defense, team morale, and obviously the offense.

Then let's add being really bad in Red Zone Offense and 3rd Down conversions.

I almost believed we had some chance Vs Lions today then I slapped myself up the side of my head.

I'm a fan of a really bad football team right now. It really sucks.

Window and Aaron Rodgers and Super Bowl!? >>> Aaron Rodgers.

He needs a load of help which must come from Ted Thompson>>> and that help needs a lot better coaching.

[channtheman]

Because we fucking suck.

[Jimx29]

because m3 screwed up again and emailed his play calling list to detroit, instead of his coaching staff

[run pMc]

For the most part, it would be hard for the Packers to win with Rodgers in there, given how the defense has played. The defense has given up 27, 27, 26 and 40 points...you need a top offense to be clicking to pull out wins when you're giving up that many points. Without Rodgers it's not a top offense.

[woodbuck27]

For the most part, it would be hard for the Packers to win with Rodgers in there, given how the defense has played. The defense has given up 27, 27, 26 and 40 points...you need a top offense to be clicking to pull out wins when you're giving up that many points. Without Rodgers it's not a top offense.

Thank You run pMc. I'm seriously as a fan trying to get a grip on this mess in terms of some realistic understanding.

I use or post a lot of humor as a way to deal with certain concern and even pain I feel when the team is playing so badly as it is now. The bottom line ... I'm serious as a Packer fan.

Right now I cannot even end my posts as I normally do as what's the sense as it is at present. I'm a realist and the Green Bay Packers are bleeding out.

I really care. I want to be overall constructive and generate a response here that promotes that end as a means to making us all better fans.

[bobblehead]

For the most part, it would be hard for the Packers to win with Rodgers in there, given how the defense has played. The defense has given up 27, 27, 26 and 40 points...you need a top offense to be clicking to pull out wins when you're giving up that many points. Without Rodgers it's not a top offense.

I state again that football is a symbiotic game. Our defense wasn't god awful until yesterday, but the 3 and outs and the turnovers made their job next to impossible in the first 3 games. Yesterday was a total team meltdown. I pray it was an aberration.

[mmmdk]

Magic god creatures can't help the Packers or anyone else for that matter. TT has his Work cut out for him 'cos the offseason started yesterday.

[woodbuck27]

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/toxic-differential/2013/

Toxic Differential Week 13.

The above doesn't include this statistic relevant to the New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks game on MNF Mon. 02 Dec. 2013.

The Packers took a big plunge in the Thanksgiving game in Detroit; while the Lions leaped back up the standings to the NO. 9 slot.

The Packers Toxic Differential now sits in 20th spot at -4; or a drop of 10 from last weeks NO. 9 position and Toxic Diff. of +6. Last week that +6 Toxic Diff. placed us in the 10th slot.

Ouch !


PACKERS !