Go for 2 monkey pile

[channtheman]

I agreed with kicking the xp. You essentially want to put off having to go for 2 as long as possible

Very simply and well said.

[woodbuck27]

I agreed with kicking the xp. You essentially want to put off having to go for 2 as long as possible

Yes.

[ThunderDan]

Here is why I like going for the 1 point. If we had missed we would be down 2, in the next possession if we hold Chi to a FG instead of a punt we are then down 5. If the Packers score a TD on the next possession we go up by 1 and need a 2 point conversion to go up by 3. If we don't get the second 2 pointer a FG wins the game for Chi on the last possession instead of a tie. If we kick 2 extra points that FG ties the game instead of wins it for the Bears.

[pbmax]

Don't have the Tweet, but Advanced NFL Stats put the leverage point of a 2 point conversion at 47%. That means if you covert at a greater than 47% rate, its worth the try.

I am not sure anyone Packer fan, without looking at the stats for this year, would think the Packers have a 47% shot at a 2 point conversion. I would tilt more in favor of the 1 pt try because I expected more scoring at that point. I may be too generous in my estimate though with 10:47 left.

[CaptainKickass]

Math is hard, m'kay?





But I also would have gone for 1 in that situation.

[Harlan Huckleby]

There isn't a magic formula, but if you think the Bears are likely to score a touchdown in remainder of game, you'd kick the extra point. On the other hand, if you expect a defensive struggle with field goals (at most) likely, the extra point is pretty worthless, and the 2 points to draw even are attractive.

The offenses were inept in first half. I can't remember how the third quarter went, but I thought a chance of a close finale was good at 11 minutes left.

The argument that "you put off going for two until you have to" is too simple. There is much more of a grey area in 4th quarter

[channtheman]

There isn't a magic formula, but if you think the Bears are likely to score a touchdown in remainder of game, you'd kick the extra point. On the other hand, if you expect a defensive struggle with field goals (at most) likely, the extra point is pretty worthless, and the 2 points to draw even are attractive.

The offenses were inept in first half. I can't remember how the third quarter went, but I thought a chance of a close finale was good at 11 minutes left.

The argument that "you put off going for two until you have to" is too simple. There is much more of a grey area in 4th quarter

I think at that point Chicago had scored 3 TD's on their 3 second half possessions. There was little reason to think we'd hold them.

[mraynrand]

I think at that point Chicago had scored 3 TD's on their 3 second half possessions. There was little reason to think we'd hold them.

that's were I was. Was more worried about being down by 9.

[Bossman641]

that's were I was. Was more worried about being down by 9.

Yep, d had been making no stops. I did not want to miss the 2, give up td and go down 9. Preference was to keep it within a one score game and not abandon the run game

[Harlan Huckleby]

I think at that point Chicago had scored 3 TD's on their 3 second half possessions. There was little reason to think we'd hold them.

well, they scored twice.

The "down by nine" theory forgets that you might also be stung by a field goal. Or you might just exchange scores with the other team. In either case the 1 does you no good.

I want the two there because I sense a very close finish.

The argument that the Packer D is crap has some merit.

[woodbuck27]

well, they scored twice.

The "down by nine" theory forgets that you might also be stung by a field goal. Or you might just exchange scores with the other team. In either case the 1 does you no good.

I want the two there because I sense a very close finish.

The argument that the Packer D is crap has some merit.

It's all about the choice between one and two possessions and keeping it at a one possession game is the best strategy.

[bobblehead]

Somebody explain how it is smart to kick an extra point when you are down by 2 in 4th quarter, relatively low scoring game at that point

He took your advice and went for 2 in Minnesota. He didn't get it, but I can't see how anything would have changed if he had taken the point....except the outcome.

[bobblehead]

Here is why I like going for the 1 point. If we had missed we would be down 2, in the next possession if we hold Chi to a FG instead of a punt we are then down 5. If the Packers score a TD on the next possession we go up by 1 and need a 2 point conversion to go up by 3. If we don't get the second 2 pointer a FG wins the game for Chi on the last possession instead of a tie. If we kick 2 extra points that FG ties the game instead of wins it for the Bears.

This is exactly the way I saw it. There was a lot of time left for this scenario to play out. The scenario of stopping the bears cold, and in turn being stopped cold seemed the least likely of all scenarios.

[buchunter03]

ThunderDan said it well regarding if the Bears were to kick a FG. That's why I agreed on going for 1 at the time. Once we got the stop and a lot of time came off the clock, McCarthy probably would've liked to have gone for 2. Hindsight is 20/20.

However, whoever says they would rather wait for the two point conversion to the last moment is wrong. If you are down 8 and it's the last drive you can score and then miss the 2pt conversion and game is over. If you go for it early (In the 4th) and miss you know you need 2 scores and can plan the last couple drives accordingly. Therefore you will hurry up and try to get a score and an onside kick. Rather than taking your time and trying to get a TD on the last drive. Then if you miss the 2pt conversion, game is over and you don't get that extra possession.

Again, if you're down 8 with 4 minutes left you will probably take your time and make sure you score with around 30 seconds left. But if you're down 9 with 4 minutes left, chances are you now hurry up to score before 2 minutes left and kick onside for another opportunity. Down 8 you only play for 1 last drive. The 2pt conversion is going to be the same either way, you would rather know early on if you need another possession.

[mraynrand]

ThunderDan said it well regarding if the Bears were to kick a FG. That's why I agreed on going for 1 at the time. Once we got the stop and a lot of time came off the clock, McCarthy probably would've liked to have gone for 2. Hindsight is 20/20.

However, whoever says they would rather wait for the two point conversion to the last moment is wrong. If you are down 8 and it's the last drive you can score and then miss the 2pt conversion and game is over. If you go for it early (In the 4th) and miss you know you need 2 scores and can plan the last couple drives accordingly. Therefore you will hurry up and try to get a score and an onside kick. Rather than taking your time and trying to get a TD on the last drive. Then if you miss the 2pt conversion, game is over and you don't get that extra possession.

Again, if you're down 8 with 4 minutes left you will probably take your time and make sure you score with around 30 seconds left. But if you're down 9 with 4 minutes left, chances are you now hurry up to score before 2 minutes left and kick onside for another opportunity. Down 8 you only play for 1 last drive. The 2pt conversion is going to be the same either way, you would rather know early on if you need another possession.

I don't think you like a scenario where you have to recover an onside kick